Will It Be A Luxury To Meet Physicians?

In 2013, the World Health Organisation (WHO) rang a bell forecasting a shortfall of 12.9 million healthcare workers globally by 2035. The pandemic has only made things worse. With over half of the world’s population lacking access to essential healthcare, and the increasing leaving of frontline workers after COVID-19, it is easy to sum up: we’re heading towards a healthcare crisis.

Sombre numbers from the 2020 report of the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) project the total physician shortage in the U.S. between 54,100 and 139,000 by 2033. As for Europe, the numbers are similar. According to a WHO report , the shortfall there is anticipated to reach 4.1 million in 2030; (0.6 million physicians, 2.3 million nurses and 1.3 million other health care professionals). In Asia , besides missing healthcare professionals from the health system, an uneven geographical distribution of health workers is a further obstacle.?

Source: https://www.aha.org/

The main drives for these shortages are similar: on the one hand, it’s the population’s growth and ageing. This highly contributes to the increased need for medical professionals. In the U.S., the population aged 65 and over is projected to grow by 45.1% by 2033. On the other hand, more than two of five currently active physicians in the States will be 65 or older within the next decade. They are now heading towards retirement.

These numbers have not yet factored in healthcare workers leaving their professions due to COVID. A report on American nurses published in April 2021 found that 43% consider leaving the healthcare profession in 2021. Many respondents in a British study answered similarly; and the number of U.K. doctors considering early retirement has more than doubled since 12 months ago.

Where numbers lead us

Based on the statistics, we can declare that there will always be a shortage of healthcare professionals globally.

There will always be fewer health workers trained than needed. And as more and more people receive care and our diagnostic arsenal is improving, the number of people diagnosed with chronic diseases will keep on increasing. Similarly, as the number of areas providing advanced health care increases, the demand for skilled medical professionals will remain the same – or will grow.

A medical-school bottleneck further augments the problem: medical schools receive far more applications they can and will facilitate. Later comes another obstacle: the lack of residency spaces. This is a global problem; and it comes as no surprise that the annual Match Day, organised by the National Resident Matching Program in the United States, is celebrated throughout the country. This is the day when medical school students and graduates from the U.S. and worldwide learn which residency programs they can join in the States over the coming 3-7 years. In 2019, there were 44k+ applicants for 35,185 places. It matters most for our statistics because numbers here are accurate predictors of future physician workforce supply.

Source: www.ehrintelligence.com

National Nurses Associations have also committed to increasing the number of nursing students worldwide. But there's still a gap of 3-5 years between the now increased number of nursing students enter the workforce, say the International Council of Nurses (ICN). In their 2020 report, the organisation worried that "due to existing nursing shortages, the ageing of the nursing workforce and the growing COVID-19 effect, ICN estimates up to 13 million of nurses will be needed to fill the global nurse shortage gap in the future."

The WHO-led Third Global Forum on Human Resources for Health had put together a list of recommended action points addressing the human resources problems in healthcare. These include the increase of the technical and political leadership to support human resource development; making frontline health services more accessible and acceptable; suggestions to balance the global distribution of healthcare workers or improve retention in impoverished countries. The Forum also recommends giving healthcare workers a voice in the development of universal health coverage policies. This is a goal we could not agree more on. But although several years have passed since the goals were set, the worldwide shortage of physicians is still unresolved.

Drawing conclusions

With the issues above combined, we need to get prepared for a new era in healthcare. On the upside, it means an ever-improving quality of care worldwide. It's provided by widespread and common use of technology tools and devices in the hospital and at home. On the downside there will be larger distances between doctors and patients and even nurses and patients. Here are the most important repercussions:

1. We will not be able to talk to a doctor about every single health issue; neither live nor over the phone. (If you can do so today, praise the moment – this will change or be utterly expensive.)?
2. A.I.-based chatbot systems and other algorithmic solutions will take over on triage and while waiting. In fact, A.I. could contribute to solving the human resources crisis in healthcare – read more about it here .
3. Patients and doctors need a cultural transformation : healthcare professionals and patients are in this together hand in hand. The first line of response will inevitably need to be technological, not personal, saving time for physicists and nurses alike.

Technology is changing healthcare, and it is a good thing. From doctor-patient relationships to better diagnostics, forecasts and analyses; from better organised medical settings and streamlined hospital services to more secure and accessible health data handling; we have a lot to gain.?

Ultimately, we might not need more healthcare personnel, but a smarter distribution and workflow as embracing technological solutions will ultimately lead to better health – and better care.