“Losing 2-1 is better than a 3-0 whitewash” Reflections on the triple by-elections

Lexington’s Senior Counsel and former Special Advisor in No.10 Simon Burton OBE and Associate Director and former Labour adviser Stephanie Lloyd discuss last night results and look ahead to impacts on a forthcoming general election in 2024.

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The results

The Labour Party secured its biggest-ever by-election win in the traditionally safe Conservative seat of Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire, overturning a majority of 20,137. Labour candidate Keir Mather — who at 25 will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons — won with 16,456 votes, defeating the Tory candidate with 12,295.

In Somerton and Frome, the Liberal Democrats’ Sarah Dyke overturned a majority of more than 19,000, with a 29% swing. She won 21,187 votes, easily beating the Conservatives’ 10,179.

Solace for the Conservatives was found in retaining the seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip with a margin of fewer than 500 votes after a recount. The Conservative victory in Uxbridge was attributed by the winning candidate Steve Tuckwell to concern over a planned extension of the “ultra-low emissions zone”, a charge on polluting vehicles, to outer London boroughs planned by the capital’s Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan. Tuckwell held the seat for the party with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Johnson secured in 2019.

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The verdict

Simon Burton OBE – “The Prime Minister may well reflect on the need for the political equivalent of Bazball”.

By-elections results are frequently used to predict the outcome of the next general election and the two defeats for the Government yesterday would certainly indicate that things are as bad as the polls have been suggesting. The only ray of hope in Uxbridge was largely a vote against Sadiq Kahn’s controversial ULEZ policy. Nevertheless, losing 2-1 is better than the 3-0 whitewash that many were expecting.

Much like local council elections, for an opposition party, these electoral tests are an important part of demonstrating that you are ready for government and it is time for a change. Cameron gained Norwich North and Crewe and Nantwich in the run-up to the 2010 election. Blair gained huge swings in South East Staffordshire and Wirral South leading up to 1997.

The note of caution would be that by-elections are only ever a snapshot in time on a lower turnout. This was demonstrated in the early 1990s when the Conservatives lost a string of by-elections before securing victory in the 1992 general election. So, the electoral extrapolation is a little fraught and indicates that the opposition winning by-elections is necessary but not sufficient alone to enter Downing Street.

That said, these results do add pressure to a Prime Minister who is feeling the heat heading into the long summer recess. After a torrid few months, Sunak otherwise had a good week with better-than-expected inflation figures and getting his Illegal Migration Bill past truculent peers - both key to delivering on the pledges he set out at the start of the year. He will be disappointed to end with losing two of the three by-elections. Even though the results were expected, the manner of the defeats on huge swings, alongside a more sophisticated electorate backing whichever party was best placed to defeat the government, will worry No 10.

Conservative MPs are already jumpy about their prospects at the general election, with conversations turning to how badly they lose as opposed to there being a path to victory. Last night will make them even more nervous. It demonstrates Labour on the march achieving a swing in Selby far in excess of what they need to form a government. While in Somerton, the Liberal Democrats once more demonstrated their expertise with in overturning huge Conservative majorities to go alongside victories in Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, and Tiverton and Honiton this Parliament. Nervous and grumpy Conservative MPs will require soothing over the recess. Making them happier will surely continue to be a priority for the Prime Minister.

Number 10 are looking at several opportunities for a reset in the coming weeks and months with a (much speculated) Cabinet reshuffle, Sunak’s first Party Conference as PM, a King’s Speech in November to set out their legislative agenda, and an Autumn Statement from the Chancellor. The hope will be that these can change the weather. But time is running out for the Conservatives to show the public they deserve an historic fifth term and the headwinds they face remain significant.

A keen cricket fan, the Prime Minister may well reflect over the weekend on the need for the political equivalent of Bazball if the Tories are to avoid slipping to defeat with a whimper.

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Stephanie Lloyd – “Last night’s result will only entrench Starmer’s ruthless approach”

Starmer will be smiling after a bruising night for Sunak’s conservatives in a trio of by-elections.

A large amount of airtime will be taken up by the Uxbridge result, which saw the Conservatives cling on to the seat, due in large part to the controversial ULEZ policy being pushed by Labour’s Mayor of London. However, the seismic victory in Selby and Ainsty, securing a 21.4% swing, will be Labour’s focus and embolden Starmer on his relentless approach to winning the next general election.

Starmer’s entire focus is on rebuilding the party’s brand to secure victory at the next election. A surely obvious task for any leader of the Labour Party, but one that many before him have failed to achieve. Keir has instead built his leadership on taking tough decisions - such as last weekend’s declaration to keep the Tories’ two-child benefit cap if elected - an approach that regularly puts him in direct conflict with some in his party. However, last night’s result will only entrench his ruthless approach and momentarily silence those that oppose him.

Selby and Ainsty is a strong leave seat, with an older population in a rural area. The exact opposite of Labour’s recent heartlands and full of the target voters that Starmer’s transformation of Labour is attempting to appeal to. The question is will Labour now retreat even further from radical policies ahead of the election, especially on the environment, and what will this mean for their offer at the next election as they seek to harder their support in the polls?

Whilst these by-elections are not a clear prediction of the general election, they will set the mood of politics ahead of the summer recess. An average drop of 21% in Conservative support will be deeply unsettling for many Conservative MPs as they head back to their constituencies, in contrast, Labour will be buoyed and ready to focus on the next battle.