Lord of the Net Zero Transition

Episode 110 of Cleaning Up, Lord of the Net Zero Transition, was with Lord Turner of Ecchinswell . Adair Turner is Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, in line with the Paris climate objective of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C.

Adair is happy to be described as a technocrat. He chaired the UK’s Financial Services Authority in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, writing a book on the experience in 2015 , and has also chaired the UK Pensions Commission. He was the inaugural chair of the UK Climate Change Committee. Before that he was Director General of the Confederation of British Industry, Vice-Chairman of Merrill Lynch Europe, and a director at McKinsey & Co, which is where he and I first met.

For me, the four key takeaways from our discussion were as follows:

1. There is an increasing level of consensus among technocrats, not just on the need to decarbonise the global economy, but on how to do it. The key will be very deep electrification – an increase from 20% of final energy now to “60% or higher”, with renewable energy at the heart of the power system. Even what used to be called hard-to-abate sectors now have multiple technological options moving from labs into pilots and first commercial projects.
2. The change from five years ago is truly extraordinary. It was only in March 2018 that I wrote Beyond Three Thirds, The Road To Deep Decarbonisation . In it, I claimed that the world was already on track for 1/3 wind and solar power, 1/3 electric vehicles and 1/3 more energy productivity by 2040 – a claim many disputed at the time – and argued that we needed not only to go faster in those sectors, but also to get to grips with industry, shipping, aviation, heating, petrochemicals, long-duration storage and so on. This episode shows that this is exactly what is now happening.
3. Many challenges remain. It’s all very well for technocrats to say the problem is solved, and all we need is 27 years of execution, but the reality is that economics, finance and politics are still far from fully aligned. Economics – in many cases clean solutions will be cheaper than dirty, but not always; finance – in particular cost of capital in much of the developing world remains a colossal problem; and politics – with populist leaders and movements resisting any change that threatens the status quo.
4. One of the few areas where Adair and I disagreed – though not hugely – was hydrogen. While we concurred that clean hydrogen will be essential to decarbonise certain sectors, Adair and the Energy Transitions Commission expect demand of 500-800 million tonnes by 2050 (an increase of 5-8 times from today), I think 200-300 million tonnes are more likely – a position I explained in Cleaning Up Audioblog 8, The Unbearable Lightness of Hydrogen , the week before this episode.

You can listen to Episode 110 of Cleaning Up on your favourite podcast platform or watch it on YouTube .

That brings Season 7 of Cleaning Up to an end. I want to thank my team for their hard work, in particular Michal Grabka, who produced the first seven seasons and is now moving on to a role within the Polish energy system, Charlie MacKeith who has taken over his duties, and Jo, without whom none of this would happen. Thanks also to Pietrojan Gilardini and the Gilardini Foundation – Cleaning Up’s first supporter – and especially to Jér?me, Ion, Dipender and the team at Capricorn Investment Group – Cleaning Up’s lead supporter.

Season 8 will kick off on the 4th of January 2023. I have already recorded the first two episodes, and they are cracking good. The first guest is a legend in energy analysis and writing; the second is a leading figure in financial and climate risk management.

Have a great break over the holidays, stay safe, see you next year and meanwhile, don't forget to catch up on all those great episodes you’ve missed !

Selah!