Looking to the future...

There is one thing we can say with certainty about Covid-19 – it will not be the last pandemic. This can be seen as a good and a bad thing – humankind will survive but will need to prepare for the future.

As with all pandemics caused by novel diseases, governments and healthcare systems have to be reactive. There is only so much they can legitimately prepare for.

However, for regular healthcare delivery, there is much that needs thinking about and many areas where we could be better prepared to deliver health and care in more effective and efficient ways, with more humanity and create better outcomes and lower costs.

An example from the UK: Cities became important at the time of the industrial revolution. And hospitals were located to match these large populations and availability of doctors. That approach has appeared to work fine for well over a century.

But looking at the demographics – people typically move out of big urban areas after their first child and when those children grow-up they move to cities / large urban centres for work. So what? Well it means a greater proportion of older people end up in rural areas while all the expertise and facilities to treat diseases of ageing are located in cities! Essentially this means much of our healthcare provision is located away from where it is needed or will be needed most.

This is not the sort of thing most healthcare systems address – a 10 year view of healthcare is typically the planning horizon. Healthcare systems are improved from how they operate now. Resources and time frames are tight and progress must be seen to happen.

I would argue this misses the bigger opportunities to prepare for the future. It’s part of the reason why I’ve been involved with a project called The Changing Face of Medicine led by Professor Pali Hungin. Here we’ve taken the longer view – the earliest time frame that has guided the thinking is 20 years into the future – how can changes in technology; medical leadership; medical education; the patient-doctor relationship and health worker wellbeing contribute to a better healthcare system for all?

I would encourage everyone who can, whatever industry they are in, to take a moment and think about what might be coming their way in 20 years from now and how some of these changes can be harnessed to create a better future for us all.