Looking Beyond the US Elections 2020 – an Indian Perspective
Donald Trump seems to have hit a sticky patch even as the US Presidential election is inching closer. He has spent much of his first term indulging in whimsical and mercurial rants. During his term, the US lost much of its strategic clout, racial fire has been stoked through reckless pandering to the white middle-class voters. Even the traditional allies of America are wondering about the next moves of the highly unpredictable POTUS.
In his last few days of the term, he seems to be bent upon dousing the most important spirit that has been the life and soul of the legendary American Dream. He wants to block the flow of talent from outside the US and protect the local jobs. This single retrograde step is contrary to all that the US has stood for. Look at the US President talking like a third world politico!
Trump has been boasting about the economy doing well in his rule. The question that many observers ask is whether the US economy has done well in the recovery path from the prolonged lag-effects of the 2008 crisis in spite of Trump’s tantrums.
The way he has handled the pandemic put enormous cost on the economy and exposed the inadequacies of the US Healthcare in providing timely, efficient and inclusive support to American people.
The burst of pent up black anger across America in the context of the police brutality resulting in two gruesome deaths at the hands of police vitiated the already tense and disturbed sensibilities of the average American. The spontaneity of the outrage of US citizenry- white, black, brown and of all hues- to the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed Black man by suffocation by the white policeman who held him down shows that the American spirit of liberalism and inclusiveness still runs deep. Trump would probably have been taken aback by the intensity of the rebellion against the act.
Covid mess-up and Black Lives Matter protests have put sudden breaks on a seemingly ‘within reach’ shot by Trump at an extended Presidency for another term.
The pre-poll surveys now show a clear lag of over ten percent for Trump against Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic candidate. Not that Joe had distinguished himself as the Vice President in the Obama regime. He was one of the lack-lustre ‘Veep’s in US history. Obama’s compassion and genuine concern for the ordinary American carried the day for Joe too.
It looks like negative votes might trump Donald in the hustling. Very similar to the trend in most democracies, where vote for change rides very often on the shoulder of frustration and disappointment with an incumbent.
There are still months to go for the elections. Anything can happen to put Trump back on track for another win. But as of this moment, he seems to be in for a losing battle.
Donald Trump’s signature posturing has been to offer to mediate ( shall we read ‘meddle’) in any dispute or apparent dispute between sovereign nations. It is to the credit of India and China that we have not given any seriousness to his almost instantaneous offer for help in the Eastern Ladakh incident. If the reported agreement to pull back does hold, both India and China should introspect as to the need for mutual respect, dignity and accommodation. As the geography with nearly 40% of world population and as the two promising economies to lead global recovery post pandemic, both nations and the world have much to lose by mindless adversity. Anyway, the Region has to look beyond Trump and to a shared mutuality of interests.
For India, a brewing challenge – in fact one of the many simmering challenges – would be to reset the relationship with a possible Democratic Administration post the 2020 US elections. Earlier, Indian origin citizens in the US were by default mostly democratic supporters. But over the past few elections, as the Indian diaspora has become more confident, competent and engaged in the domestic politics of America, they have been able to tactically position on either side of the political spectrum.
US Bureaucrats and Military Brass have traditionally demonstrated visible disdain to India and bias towards Pakistan in their South-Asia diplomacy. Stalwarts like Henry Kissinger, Madeline Albright and Colin Powell irrespective of Democrat-Republican orientation saw India as a satellite of the USSR; they saw India’s assertion of being “non-aligned” as a mask to hide the reality of being aligned against US interests. With the collapse of USSR, we had a chance to reset the equation. But it was Communist China that stole the opportunity from us and they succeeded in leveraging the situation to claw into a powerful positioning both economically and politically.
India’s experience with Trump was not particularly great, as indeed was the experience of many nations caught in the web of his unpredictable twists and turns, lack of awareness or interest in the nuances of global sensitivities. In the current global context, India has to walk a tight rope and manoeuvre with grace, tact and firmness in our relations with the super power of the world and the second-in-line. Our success in crafting ‘Chanakyan’ smart diplomacy coupled with bold economic moves could trip the runner-up to the third position. But for that we indeed need an India 2.0.
Whether Trump stays or Biden takes over, India cannot let the guard down. If the enemy is powerful, it doesn’t hold us back from learning a few of his tricks and improvising them. We can definitely learn a few smart diplomacy and fine balancing from China.
In dealing with US Administration post the upcoming elections, India has to do the homework right, pitch the strategy with firmness and play to win.
*Ravi Kumar Pillai is an author, consultant, coach and mentor and can be contacted at [email protected]