Looking Back...2018... Looking Forward

As the UK agriculture industry limps towards the finish line for the year, it feels like 2018 has been quite a saga.

Grain companies pulling out of the market, most announcing losses and the constant spectre of "Brexit"

Where do you start? In January, I suppose.

The announcement at the start of the year that Dalmark were pulling out of the UK grain market was met with shock... shock that it wasn't someone else. The ghost of "Wellgrain Past" still roamed the lands, accompanied by it's haunting cry of "￡2 more but you have to wait for the cash"

No sooner had this news been digested then out came the accounts for the grain merchants. One by one, revealing losses - the phrase "a challenging year" was trotted out ad nauseum. Farmers started to ask questions about who was safe and "who will go next" the reality was that no firm was going to "do a Wellgrain" - and as if to make a point that some people could still make money in the trade Frontier casually announced profits of over ￡30 million.

Cereals came and went with large gaps between stands as the merchant sector continued their new found freedom of not having to make small talk with tractor drivers and obnoxious chaps who thought they had the right to ogle and make inappropriate remarks to the female members of staff who had been seconded into waitressing for the two days because the business owner once sold a load of beans to the firm 6 years ago.

"I'm head of accounts!" "Well, today Nancy - you're serving beef patties. Get out there"

And then it was harvest - the summer, you may well forget, actually started in April - everyday was 22 degrees and blue skies and somehow despite one of the driest years in living memory- there was a harvest!!!

Wheat prices rose due to the uncertainty on volume - ￡200/mt was there for the taking and Nov 19 topped at ￡185/mt and farmers sold... very little... "It might go to ￡220/mt, as yet".

It didn't.

The news broke that Ensus and Vivergo were being "mothballed for an uncertain period" and saw the feed wheat market collapse upon itself like a neutron star. Rather than sell at ￡180 - they did nothing.

Instead they chose to believe the advice from firms that charge for the privilege of reports that you can actually get from free. And ignored the advice of seasoned professionals.

A merchant is for life, not just for peaks in the market...said no one ever.

Brexit has strangled trade on both sides of the English Channel- we need to sell, they need to buy - but on what terms? No one knows or wants to pick up the tab.

Sterling fell faster than my optimism for Ipswich Town's season this year, thus sparing further drops in grain.

Blah, blah, blah.

And so here we are, tired, weary and just trying to summon enough enthusiasm to get through this last fortnight.

What joys will this floundering government inflict on the ag sector in 2019? They are lucky that they happen to be in power when the opposition seem to be somehow unfathomably worse then them!

I give you my predictions for 2019.

1.More than one grain merchant will make a profit next year.

2. One merchant will "Do a Dalmark"

3. There will be a merger/purchase between two grain businesses.

4. We will end up with a No Deal Brexit but still end up with having to adhere to EU laws because no one in power can actually negotiate..at all

Have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

Thanks for reading!