Looking back on the development of Shanghai in the past 100 years

Since the opening of the port in 1843, in more than 160 years of development history, Shanghai has had three important major transformations, not only fundamentally changed the face of the city, but also to a certain extent led to the transformation of the whole country and society, far-reaching impact. It can be said that the history of Shanghai is a history of urban transformation. Reviewing this historical process, studying the path choice and system analysis behind it and examining its utility will not only help us to better understand the past, but also have important reference significance for the future development of Shanghai.

I. Space-time reincarnation of urban transformation

The first great transformation of Shanghai took place in modern times. Modern China is faced with "three thousand years have not changed ", but also full of new and old ideas conflict, the collision of east-west culture. The urban development of modern Shanghai is the prominent representative of this historical upheaval. After the Opium War in 1842, Britain forced the Qing government to sign the Nanjing Treaty, and Shanghai was opened as one of the five ports of trade. Shanghai officially opened its port on November 17,1843, forced to open the door to the closed world, and led the whole country from a closed agricultural society to a modern country. In just a few decades, Shanghai changed from a coastal county to a metropolis with a population of more than millions. Shanghai is the premier port of China's foreign trade and the largest industrial and commercial city in China, as well as the industrial, commercial, financial and trade center of China and the far East as a whole. In politics, Shanghai is the central stage of many political ideas and active political forces, which plays an important role in the change of political situation in modern China; in culture, Shanghai is the bridgehead of the west-east, the birthplace and center of modern Chinese culture, and has far-reaching influence; in system, Shanghai draws lessons from the advanced management system of concession, promotes the formation of Shanghai's civil culture and civil society, and promotes the institutional change in modern China; In urban construction, Shanghai is the magic capital of many miracles and one of the most attractive cities in modern times.

The 1920s is the golden period of Shanghai city, Shanghai industry, trade, finance and so on have reached the historical peak. In the late 1920s, Shanghai's economy began to decline due to the rapid changes in the economic situation at home and abroad. In the autumn of 1929, the world economic crisis broke out and spread to Shanghai, which was hit hard and began to recover gradually until 1935. The problem of urban rapid development accumulation is also becoming more and more serious. The long-term crisis of port congestion has made the position of the largest port in Shanghai's far East precarious. The urban organization and management system of Huayang partition, the disorderly construction of long-term planning, the polarization of concession and Chinese boundary, the sharp increase of Shanghai's urban population and the continuous expansion of urban scale have led to serious urban problems. To this end, the national government put forward a grand "big Shanghai plan ", eager to build a new city to solve the problem of urban development in Shanghai. History did not give Shanghai too much time. With the outbreak of World War II, the Great Shanghai Plan failed and the first urban transformation of Shanghai ended.

The second transformation of Shanghai took place after 1949. With the further consolidation of the people's power, the comprehensive introduction of the Soviet Union's development model and the completion of socialist transformation, China began to guide production and consumption through planning, which showed the coming of the era of planned economy. In addition to exchanges with socialist countries led by the Soviet Union, China has basically closed the door to opening up and exchanging with the outside world, trying to promote the development of the country through the development of industry. Shanghai's urban development direction, from the previous comprehensive city, gradually changed into a single industrial city. Shanghai has also changed from the financial, cultural and commercial center of the far East to a national industrial center, which is an important pillar of the whole national economy. The investment direction of the state and the government is mainly concentrated in the field of production, but neglects the construction of infrastructure. The proportion of productive investment and non-productive investment is seriously unbalanced, which leads to the serious lag of urban housing construction and public facilities.

The third transformation of Shanghai is marked by the development of Pudong in 1990. The development of Pudong marks China's overall economic reform and opening to the outside world, and is also an important measure for Shanghai to once again implement a market economy and rejoin the global division of labor system. The grand plan of Pudong development has been supported by strong national policy and the influx of large-scale investment at home and abroad, which has produced explosive effect. Pudong development makes Shanghai actively participate in the competition of globalization, and has made great development in economy, finance, trade, international shipping and so on, which has enhanced Shanghai's comprehensive service capacity. With Shanghai as the leader, the urban construction, industrial agglomeration, economic growth and structural transformation of the whole Yangtze River Delta region have achieved leapfrog development and become an important engine of national economic growth.

The development track of Shanghai's three major transformations outlines the city from closed to open, from decay to prosperity, from backwardness to leading time and space reincarnation. If we regard Shanghai's efforts to seek national prosperity and national rejuvenation as a continuous social process since modern times, we can think that Pudong development has only restarted and accelerated this process, and has not really been realized and completed. The transformation continues.

Shanghai is the epitome of urban development in modern China. The three major transformations in Shanghai have been passive, active, and the political system is very different. However, the urban development model reflects a certain degree of continuity. Government roles and land policies play a key role. The political system, land system, real estate system, government authority and urban planning have been closely combined since modern times, forming a unique urban development model, becoming an important part of the operation of government power, and being the key to the study of Chinese urban phenomena. The formation and development of Shanghai's urban development model since modern times began with the introduction of western urban development theory, but for various reasons, it has obvious tendency from the beginning. At the same time, the relevant power balance mechanism, democratic decision-making mechanism, municipal management mechanism, guarantee and complaint system have not been paid enough attention to, and it is difficult to guarantee the public interest. In a sense, the model of "middle school as the body and western learning as the use" still plays a decisive role to this day, and has a new name called "Chinese characteristics ".

II. Modern transformation between China and the West

Modern Shanghai is a period of collision and integration between western political system and Chinese traditional culture, and has adopted two parallel political systems for a long time. The concession introduced the western political system and legal system into Shanghai, which led to the modernization transformation of Shanghai. The concession adopts the legal system and the parliamentary system, formulates the regulations and strictly enforces the law. Through its annual meetings and special meetings, the Concession is the actual supreme authority in the concession with legislative and supervisory functions, which is responsible for the budget of the Ministry of Industry, the issuance of licences, the determination of special taxes and the election of real estate commissioners. The relatively sound legal system and democratic management system of concession can guarantee the interests of most people in the development of the city. The real right based on the western private ownership ensures that the basic power of the landlord will not be infringed and can fully exercise his own power. The concession grasped the key factors of Shanghai's development at that time, controlled the port, controlled the trade and so on, grasped Shanghai's economic lifeline, and also became the powerful promoter of urban development. In urban planning, road construction, infrastructure construction, architectural design, construction and other aspects, the concession has been in the forefront of Shanghai, the international introduction of new technology and new materials almost simultaneously into Shanghai, is a solid technical support behind the rapid development of the city. More importantly, the concession situation is relatively stable. In the turbulence of Shanghai for nearly a hundred years, the concession is as stable as Mount Tai most of the time, rarely affected, and naturally becomes a safe haven for domestic and foreign capital. This is also an important reason why modern Shanghai can always maintain a considerable speed of development in troubled times.

Influenced by the concession, since the end of Qing Dynasty, Shanghai has tried out local autonomy and democracy many times, but it has never been successful. By 1927, with the establishment of the special city of Shanghai, local autonomy and democracy had in fact been completely ended, and Shanghai finally adopted the centralized system of mayor's responsibility and legalized it by law. The legal system of the national government is generally imperfect, and the political situation at that time is not the ideal environment for the implementation of the law. Although the national government has also tried to bring urban management into the track of legalization, it has set up many new institutions, compiled relevant laws and policies, and established a relatively complete government management agency. But in fairness and stability, it is far from concession. Although the land system of the national government has made great progress over the past, the situation of excessive government power, unstable land property rights and insufficient protection of individual legitimate rights and interests has not been fundamentally improved. The inherent weakness of the national government leads to the lack of stable development environment and strong institutional protection in the Chinese world.

To some extent, the process of urban modernization transformation in Shanghai is a process of rediscovering and dividing urban land value. Since the opening of Shanghai, a large number of agricultural land has been converted into urban land. As an independent commodity, land has formed a large-scale land market and real estate market for the first time in the history of Shanghai. The nature and value of land use have also undergone fundamental changes. The value of land no longer depends on the value of the output of the land itself, but more on the nature and location of land use. The discovery of urban land value makes the tax on land and related real estate gradually become an important source of financial resources for the municipal authorities. Finally, property tax becomes the most important income of the concession. Increasing and upgrading the value of urban land is a natural choice for municipalities. The cross-border construction of the early concession and the opening of the commercial port of the Chinese boundary are in fact the competition for urban land and its related value.

Due to the unique location conditions and various advantages of Shanghai, backed by the vast hinterland of the Yangtze River Basin and the development opportunities that are difficult to replicate, Shanghai has gradually become the most prosperous city in modern China, and has made brilliant achievements in urban construction. However, the scope and power of concession management are limited, it is difficult to implement long-term planning, cross-border expansion and the conversion of Chinese land certificates into deeds have also encountered increasing resistance, and there is nothing to do with port and large-scale infrastructure construction. It is impossible to consider the future development of the city from the perspective of Shanghai. With the rapid increase of urban population and the continuous expansion of urban scale, the municipal pattern of concession and Chinese boundary, complex land ownership and chaotic land development situation are becoming more and more unsuitable for the needs of urban development. By the 1930s, when the world economic crisis hit, Shanghai's urban development had actually become the end of the tension. At this time the concession of real estate investment heat continues to rise, real estate prices skyrocketing so that the city still maintain the illusion of prosperity, but the decline has gradually become obvious.

The National Government's "Great Shanghai Plan" is in this critical historical period, trying to change the fate of Shanghai's cities. The National Government is trying to inject new vitality into Shanghai's urban development by building large-scale infrastructure such as a new deep-water port and a railway terminal. However, due to the exploitation of Shanghai by Nanjing government, the municipal government has always been in a state of extreme financial tension, and the funds available for urban construction are extremely limited. Instead of using their compulsory power, the municipal government began to practice a new urban development model, using large-scale construction plans and land speculation to promote the development of urban construction. The key to this model is land finance, or land speculation. The municipal government makes full use of its own compulsory land expropriation right, uses deficit finance to obtain funds, and compels large areas of land with low original value but potential for growth to become mature land through infrastructure construction. And through various ways to enhance the value of land, part of the independent construction, part of the sale, from which to obtain benefits. In a sense, the "Great Shanghai Plan" also opened the Pandora's box of urban development in modern China. If there is not enough restriction, urban development will inevitably be reduced to a tool for power groups to seek urban interests.

Because of the uncertainty of expected future returns, this development model has great risks. If the plan fails, all taxpayers, banks and bondholders will pay for the result. The Great Shanghai Plan is a typical example. In addition to the city's financial revenue, the repayment of municipal loans and bonds depends extremely on land finance. If problems occur in the operation process and lead to the breakage of the capital chain, the city finance will be greatly impacted. Because of the delay in the construction of the new commercial port and railway line, the location conditions in the Jiangwan area have not been fundamentally improved, the trend of the city center moving northward has not appeared, resulting in the unsatisfactory results of land operation, the land price has not soared, and the attraction of investment has not been very successful. Investors generally choose concession rather than the central area of Shanghai, which the national government strongly promotes. The municipal government has invested nearly 10 million yuan in the construction of a new city, and the final revenue of land finance is only more than 4 million yuan. Since the relevant functional areas have not been developed, the construction of the new town is also

Failure to generate new tax sources to increase the revenue of the municipal government. The proportion of huge investment, capital utilization and output of municipal government is extremely low, and even becomes a heavy financial burden of municipal government. Statistics from 1937 show that the repayment date of municipal loans has been arranged until 1952. With the invasion of the Japanese army on August 13,1937, the Shanghai municipal government withdrew from the Jiangwan area. The "Great Shanghai Plan" ended under extremely tragic and tragic circumstances and declared the de facto end of Shanghai's first urban transformation.

III. Highly centralized planned economy

After 1949, with the introduction of the Soviet development model and the completion of socialist transformation, Shanghai began to turn to the planned economy. The color of government centralization is more than that of the period of national government. In addition to the period of urban order and the collapse of urban economy during the "Cultural Revolution ", the government's control over the city is generally on the trend of strengthening. With the total disintegration of private ownership and the unified allocation of state economy and collective economy under the control of state administrative forces in strict accordance with the national development plan, it has become the leading force in the development of urban economy. The new land system and urban construction system are fully established, the construction activities can only be carried out through the government or units, and the urban residents have completely lost their right to choose their own land and build their own residence. Small and independent urban construction activities, although still partial, have lost their legal status and gradually disappeared, and to this day there are no signs of recovery. Since modern times, the separation of urban construction and citizens in Shanghai has reached its peak. In the era of planned economy, urban development has become the embodiment of political decision-making in urban land use. It has established the mode of overall arrangement and resource allocation of cities from the aspects of urban nature, population, land and public facilities, and has formed a more strict management procedure. And through a series of professional and technical measures to ensure its implementation.

The planned economy concentrated on doing great things, and in the early days of the founding of the people's Republic of China, it did play a role in completing the initial accumulation of industrialization. However, the disadvantages of planned economy are also obvious. The planned economy depends on the comprehensive decision-making ability of the makers, but the establishment of the plan under the centralized system is often the embodiment of the will of the chief. Because of the existence of "economic man" in Buchanan's government, the officials who make and operate the plan are often not concerned about the utility of the plan, what they pursue is their own prestige and power, and the space for power rent-seeking is huge. At the same time, top-down planning instructions often lack flexibility and can not respond effectively to changes in reality. Internal and external reasons, leading to the planned economy era of social resources allocation is not only difficult to achieve fairness, efficiency is low.

Under the system of planned economy, Shanghai's urban development depends entirely on the central policy. In the era of planned economy, Shanghai has contributed greatly to the development of the country. Shanghai is still China's largest port, trade and industrial and commercial city, made in Shanghai was the guarantee and symbol of quality at that time. To a large extent, the central government's finance depends on the tax revenue of state-owned enterprises. Shanghai, with its large number of state-owned enterprises, has become an important source of state finance. At the most, it accounts for about 18% of the total revenue of the whole country. By the mid-1980s, Shanghai's economic growth rate began to slow, successive years below the national average. Market competitiveness weakened, traditional product advantages quickly disappeared or even lagged behind. In the period of planned economy, the bad result of urban malformation development began to appear, the poor housing conditions, the serious lag of public service and infrastructure became the stubborn disease that troubled Shanghai.

IV. Pudong Development and Shanghai Transformation

After the central government announced the development of Pudong in 1990, Shanghai's urban development entered a new historical period, which also led to the wave of the largest urban construction in Shanghai's history, and continued to this day.

History is always surprisingly similar, Pudong development is also a strong government-led, the use of large-scale planning to stimulate urban development typical case. Although Shanghai's new urban management system, land system, urban construction system and laws and regulations are different from those of the National Government, there is no essential difference in breaking down obstacles and enforcing urban development plans. The land system at this time went further than the National Government period. The land use right can realize the value of the land and leave a foreshadowing for the future secondary expropriation and transfer. On the one hand, the entry of land into the market makes the government suddenly have an irreplaceable valuable resource and almost unlimited wealth, and can realize it through financing, rent approval and transfer, so that the municipal government has the greatest right to speak in urban development. On the other hand, the revitalization of land assets largely solves the urgent source of funds for urban development. In the urban development model, Pudong also adopted deficit finance and land finance. The government relies on central financial support and bank loans to obtain the initial funds needed for urban construction, and compulsorily expropriates land originally owned by farmers and collectives at low prices. Through planning, infrastructure construction and paid transfer, the land transfer fees will be used to balance the deficit and have a considerable balance.

The planning of Pudong Development Zone can also clearly see the shadow of the Great Shanghai Plan. The bold idea of building a new city in Pudong, the construction of large-scale construction areas with huge land use, the construction of large-scale infrastructure such as Yuejiang Tunnel, Yuejiang Bridge, Pudong Airport, Waigaoqiao Port and Free Trade Zone, the setting up of Lujiazui Financial Center, the measures to build Oriental Pearl, Jinmao Tower, Lujiazui Financial complex and other landmark buildings, and the design concept of the Great Shanghai Plan are in line with each other. In fact, the development of Pudong is one of the "big Shanghai plan" options, but because of the limitations of technical conditions at that time did not become the main option.

The biggest difference between Pudong development and the Great Shanghai Plan comes from the outside. The good internal and external environment of Pudong development is unparalleled by the turbulent times of the Great Shanghai Plan. At this time the tide of globalization has begun, capital flows around the world, looking for investment opportunities. On the other hand, multinational companies are moving industries in low-end manufacturing. In the domestic environment, after ten years of reform and development, China's huge market is increasingly attracting global attention. Strong national policy support and high investment pull, Pudong injected a strong impetus. Shanghai's unique location advantage and strong industrial foundation are the strong backing for Pudong development. Great urban planning and Pudong's vast urban development space have created good conditions for more capital and industrial entry. It can be said that Pudong development, timing, geographical location, people and several factors have occupied, success is also reasonable. In a few short years, an extroverted, multi-functional, modern new urban area has initially formed on the east bank of the Huangpu River.

The development of Pudong has led to the overall transformation of Shanghai's urban function and the reconstruction of urban space. Shanghai has become the center of China's economic, financial, trade and international shipping agglomeration, and with Shanghai as the leader, it has driven the economic take-off of the whole Yangtze River Delta region and injected a strong impetus into the national economic growth. In urban space, Pudong development has changed Shanghai's single-center, spreading urban expansion model, guided Shanghai to a multi-center mega-city, and led to the overall upgrading of Shanghai's urban construction and infrastructure. The construction of large-scale infrastructure, such as inner and outer ring elevated roads and rail transit, has greatly improved the traffic conditions of the city. People's Square area urban renewal, Nanjing Road pedestrian street construction, Bund transformation, urban shantytown reconstruction, Lujiazui financial center construction and other projects have reshaped the city image of Shanghai. The interesting contrast between the historical buildings of the Bund Wanguo Expo and a large number of super-high-rise modern buildings in Lujiazui has become the iconic landscape of the city.

In 2003, Shanghai won the bid for the 2010 World Expo. Taking the World Expo as an opportunity, Shanghai put forward the overall orientation of building an international economic, financial, trade and shipping center, which further promoted the overall upgrading of Shanghai's infrastructure and urban construction. The characteristics of big planning, big investment and big project pull are very obvious. The rail transit system has been gradually improved, the construction of Central Road has been completed, the large infrastructure facilities such as Yangshan Deep Water Port and Hongqiao Transportation Hub have been completed one after another, the construction of hub and functional facilities has been accelerated, and the infrastructure system has basically formed. Through the large-scale urban renewal, the central urban area has realized the urban rejuvenation, and has formed the Expo Park, the comprehensive development zone on both sides of the Huangpu River, Xintiandi, Xujiahui, Wujiaochang and other new regional symbol nodes. Key construction in the suburbs Jiading, Songjiang, Lingang, Minhang, Baoshan, Qingpu, Jinshan, Nanqiao, Chengqiao and other 9 new cities to promote the further expansion of the city, to undertake urban population evacuation and functional transfer.

The rapid development of the city has led to the soaring of urban land prices and house prices. Shanghai has been one of the best cities in China's real estate market since the opening of Pudong. With the shortage of land resources, the resources of education, medical care, public services and development opportunities owned by Shanghai can not be duplicated, and the historical debt of long-term housing conditions has led to the fact that Shanghai real estate has always been in the seller's market, while the foreign population continues to import and expand the demand for housing. Combined with Shanghai's good economic base, Shanghai's real estate has developed at a high speed for more than 20 years and has not yet seen signs of deceleration. Although the state proposed a lot of regulatory measures, but little effect. Shanghai pilot property tax, the limited tax collection, neither provide a stable tax source, nor significantly increase the cost of housing holdings, reduce owners holding multiple houses, the impact on housing prices is minimal, but resulting in a sharp rise in residential rent, There is a sense of gain over loss. The unit price of housing in Shanghai's inner ring area rose about 16 times from about 3000 yuan per square meter in 1998 to about 50000 yuan today, far more than the rate of economic growth. In 2013, the price of land sales in Shanghai also rose sharply, reaching 203.8 billion yuan, the highest record in the country. Shanghai local real estate enterprises, has also been rapid development.

For a long time, Shanghai has enjoyed the national policy and project dividend, the huge profits of real estate industry and land finance have greatly squeezed the development space of other industries, and the signs of hollowing out the real industry are very obvious. The rise of real estate prices has led to the increasing cost of comprehensive business and living in Shanghai, which has reduced the competitiveness of Shanghai industry. Shanghai's advantages in traditional industries have been greatly weakened, while the advantages of high-tech industries and tertiary industries are far from being formed. Shanghai's industry, especially manufacturing, is no longer superior to its surrounding cities. Shanghai's key high-tech industries, such as electronic information industry, automobile manufacturing industry, complete equipment manufacturing, etc., because of the lack of core technology, many key products still rely on imports, and the ultimate value added is not high. The main biotechnology has not been transformed into real productivity. Shanghai also has obvious mistakes in the introduction of high-tech enterprises, few enterprises in the leading position in the industry. In the Internet and mobile Internet industry, Shanghai's enterprises in addition to some game companies, but also collective silence, which is very incompatible with its position in Chinese cities.

The marginal effect of relying on large projects and large investment is weakening day by day. Although the 2010 World Expo led to a comprehensive upgrading of Shanghai's infrastructure, it did not achieve the magnificent transformation of the city like many cities that have held the Expo in history. Although the Disney project led to soaring house prices in Sichuan and other regions, its real pull on the Shanghai economy remains to be seen. The development of Shanghai's infrastructure has lost its momentum after the World Expo reached its peak, the pull effect of infrastructure has basically reached its limit, and the operating state of existing rail transit, high-speed rail and other infrastructure is not optimistic. The deep water port of Yangshan, which Shanghai has high hopes, is far away from the urban area and lacks the intermodal transport with the railway, so the pull benefit is limited, so the development of the new city near the port is not satisfactory. Whether the establishment of the free trade zone can fundamentally reverse the development of the region will take time to test.

Shanghai's financial industry still has comparative advantage in China and has a relatively complete financial organization system, but the degree of marketization and internationalization is not high. Due to Shanghai's limited power in financial reform, the whole financial market is completely dependent on government control, which is a semi-open market with great restrictions, so it is difficult for finance to give full play to its effective resource allocation role. More importantly, the institutional environment of Shanghai financial industry is far away from the gap of international standards. The transparency and execution of the judicial system, information and regulations of the whole country is the fundamental restriction that the Shanghai financial center is difficult to internationalize. With the shortage of international standard financial talents, the construction of Shanghai financial center is still a long way to go.

The infrastructure construction of shipping center has achieved remarkable results. Shanghai's cargo and container throughput has become the first in the world, but the overall service level is not high. In the shipping industry, Shanghai has not yet formed a real brand leading enterprise. Due to the constraints of relevant laws and systems, the progress in further expanding shipping transactions and ship trading is slow, and it is not strong enough to promote the agglomeration of shipping service industry. In shipping comprehensive added value and Hong Kong, Singapore and so on far away.

The construction of trade center is slow, and the traditional advantage of Shanghai wholesale and retail trade industry is gradually losing. In recent years, the rapid rise of e-commerce has caused a great impact on the traditional trade industry. Shanghai's existing well-known e-commerce shop only one, has been controlled by Wal-Mart, and has not yet achieved profit.

In general, because Shanghai's independent innovation ability is still relatively weak, coupled with the constraints of relevant policies, land, energy and other environmental factors, the sustained prosperity of the real estate industry will lead to a sharp increase in the cost of industrial adjustment of enterprises. This will bring great difficulties to the upgrading of Shanghai industry when the new industrial growth point does not really play a role. GDP growth in Shanghai began to slow in 2008. Compared with the rapid development of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin and other regions, the light of Shanghai seems to be gradually dim. Shanghai's GDP growth in 2011 is the country's penultimate, and 2012 is the country's bottom. Corresponding to the data is a large number of emigration of manufacturing industry, slow development of high-tech industries, rising land costs, more and more heavy population and environmental pressure. Less than 20 years of development in Pudong, Shanghai once again faces the dilemma of transformation.

V. Historical significance and future prospects

If we look carefully at the cycle of urban transformation in Shanghai, we will find an interesting phenomenon. No matter what kind of urban development model, whether closed or open, it does not change the essence of urban system centralization. Only in the process of modern concession and Chinese autonomy, people pursued another pursuit. Throughout the difficult course of Shanghai's urban transformation since modern times, we still have not found a path of our own. The miracle of urban development has largely benefited from the industrial transfer of the world's low-end manufacturing industry, the low labor costs of China's low security and welfare, the high pollution and low environmental control, and the redistribution of wealth and wealth caused by the real estate industry.

Shanghai's transformation dilemma is also a microcosm of China as a whole. Investment-driven, extensive urban development model has reached the limit of driving economic development and income increase, but it is easy to give up this model to stagnate and wander economic growth, while high value-added and high-tech industries are difficult to achieve overnight, resulting in the government hesitant to transform. And the existence of real estate and land finance, to a certain extent, can maintain GDP data and government income. If house prices rise sharply, it will even create the illusion of economic growth, further squeeze the real economy. Slow down the pace of innovation and reform, so that cities lose opportunities for transformation. In the real estate industry is still a pillar industry of the city, it is difficult to produce a real transformation. The bigger possibility is the bursting of the housing bubble, leading to an overall recession. The real estate industry itself has no core competitiveness and belongs to the typical sunset industry in the world. In China, the real estate industry is a game of wealth and power. Financing ability and bargaining power with the government are the key to the success or failure of the real estate industry.

Hong Kong is a warning. Hong Kong, a free trade zone, has done its best in shipping, trade, finance and real estate, but still faces a recession. The hollowing out of Hong Kong's real industry leads to insufficient employment opportunities and a wide gap between the rich and the poor, which leads to social unrest. Hong Kong government's vigorous development of high-tech industries, has never improved, mostly reduced to real estate projects. Mr li's frequent investment in europe is a testament to his lack of optimism about hong kong's future prospects.

To achieve a successful transformation, Shanghai or China needs to be as innovative as the village of Xiaogang 30 years ago, the determination of strong men to break their wrists, the need to say goodbye to the urban development model supported by real estate and land finance, and the return to the path of institutional reform, technological innovation and productivity growth. The experience and lessons of history tell us that system construction is the foundation of urban development and the decisive factor of the success or failure of urban competition. The vicious competition without bottom line and low welfare can be effective in a short time, but only fair, efficient, transparent and legalized market economy system is the soil of innovation in the long run; the existing real estate industry and land finance are unsustainable, and land and housing should return to the basic function of residence, not become the tool of government and businessman for profit; There are no shortcuts to urban transformation, not necessarily advantages in latecomer development, limited policy and project dividends, and no technology in the market. Only the improvement of competitiveness of local enterprises can really drive urban development; It is dangerous to rely entirely on export-oriented industries such as finance, shipping and trade; high-end manufacturing with high value-added and technological content is an important cornerstone to solve employment and promote urban stability; the pursuit of grand scale and iconic image projects is dangerous and has limited economic pull. Urban spatial planning should really play a role in the rational allocation of resources, improve the efficiency of land intensive use and reduce duplication of construction.

Shanghai's 160 years of great achievements, called the "City of Miracles" is not excessive. But the change of history not only forces Shanghai to explore new identity, but also requires the whole social group to take on the important task of fundamental reform of rigid system and make a real breakthrough in the field that has been avoided in the past.