A LOOK AT DX/Y

This monthly chart of DX /Y from the 2001 high shows the Gann range from the 1985 high of 164.72 to the 2008 low of 70.69. It spans 9403 days, completes on 12/14/2033 and is outlined by the bold black line. We're currently in the lower left quadrant. The 1 x 1 bold red diagonal represents .01 / day and it nicely rejected the correction ending in January 2017. Subsequently we've tested the 2 x 1 line ( bold green line - .01 in 2 days ) in early 2018 and have been consolidating ever since. As of 7/24 it's been 4512 days and the line stands at 93.25 and rises to 94.20 at the end of the quadrant - 1/29/21, or halfway through the entire range. This remains critical support and a break of this would suggest a drop to the 4 x 1 ( blue dashed line in the 81 range ). The blue outline highlights the short term range from the 2017 high and confluences become apparent.

Since DX/Y has been declining since 1985 I feel it's fair to call the move off the 2008 low a correction and from an Elliott perspective have labelled it A-B-C rather than the beginning of an impulsive move. Further, the 9 year advance also only managed to retrace 35% of the decline. It is possible however, to label A - B as a 1 - 2, and C as 3, which would put us in wave 4. That count would come off the table if we break below the 2009 high of 89.62. The decline into the 2018 low appears to be a 5 wave structure which would imply a zig-zag and a measured move down would violate the 1-2 scenario.

The more bearish scenario is that we're in the ending stages of 1 of 3 down where the 2 x 1 bold green line would likely hold before an upward correction to the 98 area would end 2 of 3 and then a precipitous decline takes us down to 81 or possibly even 78 before wave 3 ends. Either way further downside is probable but shorting at this point is relatively high risk with limited immediate downside so I would prefer to wait and short into strength looking for the bigger move down.