Long Tail.

The winds of change can be fierce and unforgiving, often reshaping entire physical and business landscapes over time. Some of the world’s greatest canyons and rivers were carved from the wind and rain, and global business structures used to have the luxury of successfully adapting to change over relatively long periods of time. Today, companies and industries are often disrupted in a period of days or weeks. Organizations and business models must innovate, rethink, and re-engineer every two years or face a catastrophic decline and failure. Most organizations don’t recover from this scenario; sometimes disruption literally happens overnight. Powerful ideas and new technologies can simply redefine and reshape entire multi-billion industries in the blink of an eye. We see it all the time. How can we effectively anticipate and lead our teams and organizations through dramatic changes? What happens if we fail to remain relevant in a highly-interdependent and competitive global marketplace?

Last year my family visited the iconic F.A.O. Schwarz Toy Store on 5th Avenue in New York City only weeks before it closed its doors for good. The Internet and online toy shopping had finally claimed another victim. Frederick August Otto Schwarz first opened the store in 1870, and for 145 years this particular toy store became a shopping destination in The City, and captured the hearts and imaginations of little children and big children from coast to coast.  My children were excited to spend hours in the store, explore every unique toy section, and experience what a “category killer” store is really all about. We spent a few hundred dollars on toys and things. My son even used an impressive digital machine in the store to take a "selfie", and then use his high-quality image to create a customized, 3D-Printed Iron Man action figure (aka doll.) It was a magical experience. The most important and impressive toy store on the planet is now only a wonderful memory for my family – and America.

The E-Commerce Evolution is just beginning. The well-known Motley Fool investment group last week provided an analysis demonstrating that 8% of retail sales now happen online, and growing 15% a year. About 92% of the remaining $4.37 trillion in retail sales are facing a lot of questions and challenges at the moment. This impact is happening across almost all 900 industry categories in our modern economy, from medical devices to toys, and pet food to diapers. Innovate or die. In Chris Anderson’s New York Times best-selling book, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More (2006), he argues that products in low demand or that have a low sales volume can collectively build a better market share than their rivals. The Long Tail is a technical term referring to the right-leaning statistical distribution model you probably learned about as a college freshman. The Long Tail is a retailing strategy of selling a large number of unique items with relatively small quantities sold of each. With modern technology including the Internet, gigantic players can now be disrupted by very small players. Consider toy stores, for example. (Anderson's book is a must-read for every sales leader and marketer concerned about remaining relevant and beating the competition – both visible and invisible forces at play.) Amazon was founded on July 5, 1994 and started selling books online in a world that mostly ignored them - initially. Amazon’s annual revenue is now more than $107 billion and they have both disrupted and destroyed countless companies and once-sturdy business models. They are just getting started, and I’m sure the thought of Amazon – and others - keep senior Wal-Mart and Costco executives up at night with fear and trepidation.

Toys are for children and adults. The day our family walked joyfully out of the F.A.O. Schwarz store in New York City I commented to my children to remember this experience. They were experiencing history in the making. This iconic store closing represents the winds of change and the challenges our political, educational, and business leaders face. We can harness the wind rather than be blown over by it. As leaders, we can ask better questions, lift our heads up a few degrees higher and focus on the distant horizon to better see changing landscapes and approaching dark clouds, and we can strengthen our muscles and build capabilities in our teams around the Change-Ready process to better prepare for fast-moving and sweeping changes.

For more than 10,000 years humans successfully adapted to change because it happened slowly, predictably, and usually over decades or centuries. Today, change is happening in real-time - and even our beloved toy stores are not spared from the awesome power of The Long Tail. I hope we can anticipate and accept the rapid changes happening before our eyes. Shopping for your toys online doesn’t have the same appeal as walking into the store and playing with them before you buy. I’m old fashioned when it comes to my toys. Cherish your toys this holiday season, and don’t dare let the winds of change blow them away.

Let's Create More Sparks: Robert is a curious Irish-Canadian and well-traveled American who naturally enjoys story telling that includes lots of interesting facts and figures. Stats and data points help tell powerful stories. Interesting quotes and good books bring vivid colors and memorable shapes to a story. Good stories inspire the human spirit. Ideally you found an idea or two in this LinkedIn article that you can now use as a fantastic conversation starter with friends or colleagues over a cup of coffee on a leisurely Saturday afternoon.