The long road to 'semi-normal' coronavirus recovery

Remember December? Dining out with friends and family. Trips to the snow or parks. Sitting in the office next to your colleagues or meeting clients for lunch. Family gatherings over the holidays where the whole family squeezes around one table and shares food. Traveling on vacations in packed buses or planes. Not washing your hands every 10 seconds. Not knowing what Zoom is...

You know, the good old days. When 10 percent of the American labor force wasn't filing for unemployment.

Those days are long gone, and things may never return to exactly the way they were before. This isn't to say things won't return to a semi-normal state after the pandemic subsides, but we should probably come to terms with the idea that "normal" in a post-pandemic world won't be the normal we knew in December, 2019. I write this from Singapore which has just entered a "circuit-breaker" situation for a month. That's basically a nice way of saying we're in a lockdown. This after Singapore's initial success in keeping coronavirus contained.

The U.S. health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said, "The world may never get back to what it considered 'normal' before the coronavirus emerged from Wuhan, China." Fauci added that "gradually, we’ll be able to function as a society." But if you want to get to pre-coronavirus, "that might not ever happen in the sense that the threat is there.” 

'Semi-normal' post-pandemic economy

Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates is also cautious around expectations of the economy returning to normalcy. In an interview with LinkedIn Editor-in-Chief Dan Roth, he said to expect a “semi-normal economy for 18 months once recovery starts.”

Gates said that “Society is going to have to look at all of its activities and which ones are beneficial and which ones are creating a risk of a (Covid-19) rebound.” 

“Running factories, doing construction, going back to school," Gates says those things can be done, but the "risk, reward ratio" for large gatherings like sporting events, will be positive in that 18 month time period.

Gates is “doubtful that some things, because of the economic benefit they create relative to the disease risk, may make them not appropriate.”

Watch the full interview

A peek into the semi-normal future

Wuhan, China this week lifted it's lockdown after 77 days and traumatized residents are warning "this is not the end." Tens of thousands of Chinese have fled the city after the lockdown ended, leaving those residents who remain to pick up the pieces and figure out what comes next. As Wuhan was the starting point of the pandemic, it will become a model for what recovery could look like for other cities and countries around the world.Here's hoping that the wet markets at least don't return to pre-pandemic normal, as there are some early indications that's now happening.

If Jamie Dimon says so...

Remember economic prosperity? Don’t think I needed to hear Jamie Dimon say a bad recession is coming in order for it to be true, but here we are.

Let's make equality the new normal

As data starts to emerge on the race demographics of fatalities from Covid-19, the pandemic is shining a big, bright spotlight on inequality across the world right now from the U.S. to Southeast Asia.

Black people are dying from Covid-19 at much higher rates in cities across the U.S. In New York City, data is showing the virus is twice as deadly for Black and Latino people as whites.

In Illinois, black people made up 42 percent of the fatalities while they are only 14.6 of the state's population. (Source)

Within ASEAN, COVID-19 is exposing the weak social protection for the urban poor and vulnerable groups in the region. Worried about unrest among the large, vulnerable workforces, governments are giving cash to low wage workers in Southeast Asia. Throwing cash at people who live in poverty or close-to-poverty conditions is a stop-gap short term solution, rather than a long term one.

A recent survey in the UK showed the harsh impact of the pandemic is not distributed evenly across the population with the young and low income earners being hit the hardest.

There's nothing surprising about this. Disadvantaged, low wage earners, migrant and minority populations have long been working under the "normal" auspices of inequality. This is one area where the world cannot, and should not, return to "normal." This pandemic is exposing the myth of inequality for what it is, and in its wake, we must act aggressively to address this.

Airline jobs hit hardest in Asia

Remember flying? “Normal” for workers in the airline industry, particularly in Asia, doesn't look like it will return to any kind of normalcy for the foreseeable future. Some 11 million jobs in Asia-Pacific's aviation sector have been put at risk by the coronavirus, according to the global industry body International Air Transport Association (IATA). Korean Air has furloughed 70% of its 19,000 staffers; seven in 10 Malindo Air workers are taking unpaid leave; Thai Airways is cutting salaries as it grounds all flights. Budget carrier JetStar has allowed its employees to temporarily serve as safe distancing ambassadors in Singapore, while flights remain grounded.

Airbnb is reeling

Remember staying at somebody else's house or apartment for a vacation? Airbnb hosts remember. Hosts are currently struggling to pay the bills as the pandemic has sparked mass cancellations. As a result Airbnb's valuation has been almost halved to $18 billion and the company is looking to longer-term stays as its next big bet. We won't know what a new normal will look like for the home-hosting industry until things settle down. One question that I'm sure will be on the minds of prospective short-term renters will be what measures hosts take to provide a clean environment. When you're living in a world where a deadly virus can live on surfaces for days, what assurances will hosts be able to give that apartments are sterilized and clean? This will certainly be on my mind before bringing myself and my family into any stranger's home.

Cinemas are in a bad way

Remember going to the movies? I do. I love(d) going to the movies. I was raised on it. I've embraced online streaming just like everybody else, but there really is no substitute for the experience of seeing a big blockbuster in the theater. Or at least, there didn't used to be. Going to the movies is a communal, close, enclosed experience where theaters and studios make the most money by packing the most butts into seats in the shortest time possible.

I'm sure we'll see a day when going to the movies returns. It just won't look the same, especially in the short term. Social distancing will have to be incorporated in seating and that will mean less money to maintain operations.

Luxury and fashion industry hit hard

Remember when having the latest brand or getting all fancy in your best shirt or dress to go out was normal? The fashion and luxury industry remembers. Millions of jobs are at risk as fashion and luxury sales have "fallen off a cliff." What's the point of owning a new luxury brand handbag when there's nobody to show it off to? Or nobody really cares what brand you're wearing anymore because they're too worried about surviving? All of a sudden those aspirational, unnecessary or gratuitous purchases look really... pointless to a lot of people. When the economy is roaring again and when people have disposable income again is when high cost luxury will start to look realistic once more.

Now fashion, fashion has the ability to adapt. Fashion is not dependent on income. Fashion is what we make of it and fashion designers and brands should be able to adapt by catering to a more budget-conscious consumer mentality. Yes, it's great to have nice things, but right now a lot of people will want to keep their fashion sense while not breaking the bank.

Remember facts?

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Getting true sources of information has been challenging for some time in the era of fake news and misinformation. The coronavirus pandemic didn't create fake news or false facts, but it certainly has highlighted how important it is that facts are disseminated and not unverified cure theories. People will believe just about anything, and while that's a depressing thought, the current situation is forcing tech companies to better clamp down on the spread of misinformation which will hopefully last into the post-pandemic world.

Facebook is forever facing moderation challenges and its current lack of moderators is hurting the fight against misinformation in ads. But its WhatsApp messenger recently put the kabosh on false virus news by limiting the amount of times a user can forward a message, which limits the virality of any given piece of news.

Twitter is still struggling to get a handle on false virus claim takedowns. Almost 60 percent of false claims about coronavirus remain online without warning labels, according to a recent study by Oxford University researchers. There's been calls for Twitter to make available a stronger call to action for users to identify fake news when reporting Tweets. Jack Dorsey still hasn’t fixed that problem, but he has drawn from the wealth Twitter helped create for him to donate $1 billion to fight coronavirus.

Priorities, I guess.

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On the Google side of the Internet they're pumping $6.5 million into fighting misinformation while YouTube is actively taking down virus misinformation videos.

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U.S. officials have "granted Google permission to turn on a high-speed internet link to Taiwan but not to the Chinese territory of Hong Kong, citing national-security concerns in a ruling that underscores fraying ties between Washington and Beijing," reports the WSJ. This is a big deal, and strikes at the heart of Hong Kong losing status of being a distinct system apart from Mainland China.

Robots!

Robots are taking on an important role in the battle against coronavirus. They're working in hospitals, helping students graduate, delivering food and supplies and even cleaning metro trains. Robots are the physical embodiment of social distancing. It isn't unreasonable to expect a semi-normal near future incorporating more robotic help to hold us together while we've got to keep apart.

One last thing...

While we might not ever be in a world that completely resembles the one from just four months ago, the new normal we eventually achieve at least has the opportunity to be shaped in ways that address shortcomings in how we live and interact on this planet right now.

We'll go to the movies again, find new fulfilling jobs, see our favorite teams play surrounded by screaming fans, go to school recitals, attend conferences and conventions. Go to Disneyland or Universal Studios. These things will come back. They'll come back slowly, and they will probably look different, but they'll come back.

Until next time, stay safe and keep your chin up. We'll get through it.

**Have something to say? Give a shout in the comments and I'll feature the best one.