Long division

For a while, two countries were seen as bogeymen within the EU, upsetting the idea that the bloc could be one big happy family. In recent years, Poland and Hungary have ruffled feathers over everything from the rule of law to freedom of expression. That’s why the replacement of the right-wing, nationalist Law and Justice Party in government by Donald Tusk and his coalition of opposition parties has been met with a sigh of relief. The former president of the European Council is the most institutional of institutionalists – but he might not represent the direction in which the continent is heading.

Indeed, anyone who thinks that the flip in Poland means the end of the headache would be wrong. Hungary’s long-term prime minister, Viktor Orbán, who has recently returned from the inauguration of Argentina’s new ultra-libertarian president, Javier Milei, is doing what he does best: refusing to play ball. The showdown at the two-day EU summit that begins today will be over Ukraine and whether the bloc can reach a consensus on Kyiv’s EU accession bid. Orbán, who has been vocal about his close relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, has said that he won’t be cowed into greenlighting Ukraine’s accession. It’s not the first time that Orbán has acted up. He has also made a fuss over Russian sanctions and has dragged his feet over ratifying Sweden’s Nato bid.

It’s possible that Orbán might relent (probably with concessions), allowing the EU to reach an agreement. Ukraine badly needs a show of solidarity at a time when its other big backer, the US, has stalled a supplemental funding bill that would provide it with additional financial assistance. But even if the EU can paper over its cracks, it won’t last for long. The far-right is convinced that 2024 will be its year. The European Parliament elections in June, at which it will probably make gains, will be a mighty test.