Lone Wolf, Extremists, and Organized Terrorism: Where are We Headed?

The landscape of terrorism in the United States has seen significant shifts from the prevalence of lone wolf attackers post-9/11 to the growing concerns over organized terrorist groups exploiting vulnerabilities such as open borders. This brief analysis delves into the nuances of these threats, highlighting the evolution of terrorism tactics and the implications for national security.

Shift in Terrorism Trends Post-9/11

Initially, the U.S. experienced an increase in lone wolf attacks, where individuals, often radicalized by extremist ideologies from groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda, acted independently. These attackers utilized the internet for radicalization, carrying out high-lethality attacks without direct operational support from any major terrorist organization (Spaaij, 2017). However, the current security discourse has shifted towards the potential risks posed by organized terrorist groups that might exploit open border policies to infiltrate the U.S. (Curtis, 2012; Hesterman, 2013).

According to Mark Green, Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, "Since the beginning of FY2021, over 300 individuals on the Terrorist Watch List have crossed our Southwest border between ports of entry, and there is no way to know how many more were among the 1.8 million known gotaways" (Raasch, 2024).

Twelve miles east of Sasabe, Arizona, what appeared to be a Middle Eastern migrant gave a dire warning to an independent news journalist following his illegal crossing into the US-Mexico border into Arizona, which went viral on X during January 2024 stating, "If you were smart enough, you’d know who I am…But soon, you are going to know who I am" (Raasch, 2024). Some suspect this man may be a known Azerbaijani terrorist due to his likeness to an Azerbaijani terrorist recently released from prison; however, if not, this man may hold potential as a lone wolf actor inspired to act out on US soil based on his expressed assertiveness to be known.

Characteristics of Lone Wolf Terrorists

Lone wolf terrorists are individuals who act alone (or with at minimum one or two people) to “further a political, social, religious, financial, or other related goal, or, when not having such an objective, nevertheless has the same effect or potential effect upon government, society, business, or the military in terms of creating fear, disrupting daily life, or causing government, society, business, or the military to react with heightened security or other responses” (Simon, 2013). They are characterized by their solitary operations, psychological profiles, and personal motivations intertwined with broader ideological narratives. They are hard to detect due to their isolated radicalization processes, often influenced by propaganda or extremist ideologies. The motivations behind their attacks are deeply personal and tied to individual interpretations of ideological tenets, making their actions unpredictable and their detection challenging.

Recent Incidents and Their Impact

The United States has witnessed several impactful lone wolf attacks in recent years, such as the attack on a Christmas Party held by the San Bernardino County Department of Public Health in 2015 killing 14 people by husband and wife, Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik; or the Orlando, Florida shooting in June 2016 at a gay nightclub committed by Omar Mateen (Byman, 2017). These incidents have not only caused significant loss of life but have also instilled widespread fear and uncertainty, thereby influencing national security policies and societal views (Analysis on the Threat of Lone Wolf Terrorists in the United States, 2021).

FBI Director Christopher Wray addressed Congress on April 11, 2024, stating, "It is a growing concern that the recent events in the Middle East and Russia can provide twisted inspiration for individuals or small groups to carry out attacks here at home" (Margolin, 2024). Over the next coming weeks as political tensions rise in relation to the conflicts in Ukraine/Russia, Gaza Strip, and Israel/Iran the risk for potential organized groups or lone wolf actors to act out increases.

Challenges in Detection and Prevention

Detecting and preventing lone wolf attacks is particularly challenging as these individuals operate under the radar, without direct links to known extremist networks or groups. The diffuse nature of online radicalization sources complicates law enforcement efforts, which are often structured to counter more organized group plots rather than unpredictable lone attackers.

A quick scroll through social media apps gives evidence to various channels and voices which can aid in the radicalization process. Through an analysis of collected data taken from the social media activities, of 479 extremists between 2005 and 2016 under the PIRUS dataset, it was found that there is a key relationship for lone actors and social media (START, 2018). Further, of the lone actors studied during that time frame, it can be concluded that 68.12% of them were directly influenced and radicalized through forms of social media (START, 2018).

Today, we are seeing an increase of violence and aggression across the United States. Reports are emerging of peaceful protests turning violent in several major cities as demonstrators clash with police. Protests in the United States have seen a notable increase in violence in recent years. This trend reflects deeper societal divisions and a heightened sense of urgency among protestors to push for change. This is particularly so on college campuses. Aside from the increased antisemitism, Islamophobia, and harassment from protestors, a concerning trend is to have individuals claim alliance or to align with known terrorist organizations. At Columbia University, some individuals protesting praised Hamas, stating "We are Hamas" to counter protestors or "Oh Al-Qassam, you make us proud! Kill another soldier now!" (Richter, 2024). Al-Qassam is the military wing of Hamas. This is concerning considering Hamas has been listed as a Terrorist organization since October 8, 1997 (U.S. Department of State, 2024).

Moving ?Forward

It will be of increasing importance for local, state, and federal agencies to understand who is supporting and funding protests through enhanced surveillance capabilities, fostering community relationships, and improving information sharing among local, state, and federal agencies. Collaboration across all sectors of society is essential to create an environment that is both secure and respectful of fundamental freedoms, and balances protections for the freedom of speech.

Additionally, the media's portrayal of terrorism can impact public perception and potentially influence future attacks. Responsible reporting is essential to demystify the ideologies behind lone wolf terrorism and to prevent the glorification of attackers. Additionally, societal efforts in promoting critical thinking and digital literacy are fundamental in mitigating radicalization (Analysis on the Threat of Lone Wolf Terrorists in the United States, 2021).

The U.S. must maintain a balanced approach that considers the risks of both lone wolf and organized extremist groups and how they may begin to affect benefit from each other and how they may intersect with terrorist tactics or funding sources. Continuous monitoring and adaptation of counterterrorism strategies are necessary to ensure national security while upholding the nation's core values.

References

- Baggott, Sean, & Joost Santos (2020). A Risk Analysis Framework for Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Protection of the U.S. Electric Power Grid. Risk Analysis, 40.

-Barr, Luke. (2024, April 11). FBI director 'concerned' lone wolf, small groups draw inspiration from Nashville school shooting. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-director-concerned-lone-wolf-small-groups-draw/story?id=109109335

-Byman, Daniel. (2017, March 30). How to hunt a lone wolf: Countering terrorists who act on their own. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-hunt-a-lone-wolf-countering-terrorists-who-act-on-their-own/

- Center for Strategic and International Studies. (n.d.). The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in the United States. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org

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- Council on Foreign Relations. (2006, April 4). Tracking Down Terrorist Financing. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org

- Curtis, GE. (2012). Involvement of Russian Organized Crime Syndicates, Criminal Elements in the Russian Military, and Regional Terrorist Groups in Narcotics Trafficking in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Chechnya.

-Dolnick, S. (2010). The anatomy of lone wolf terrorism. Global Security Studies, 1(1), 28-38.

- Hesterman, Jennifer. (2013). The Terrorist-Criminal Nexus: An Alliance of International Drug Cartels, Organized Crime, and Terror Groups.

-National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). (2018, July). Use of social media by U.S. extremists. University of Maryland. https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_PIRUS_UseOfSocialMediaByUSExtremists_ResearchBrief_July2018.pdf

- National Institute of Justice. (n.d.). What NIJ Research Tells Us About Domestic Terrorism. Retrieved from https://nij.ojp.gov

-Raasch, J. (2024, April 18). Republican leading Mayorkas impeachment shares terrifying video of illegal migrant ominously warning. Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13010601/republican-leading-mayorkas-impeachment-terrifying-video-illegal-migrant-ominously-warning.html

- Simon, Jeffrey D. (2016). Lone Wolf Terrorism: Understanding the Growing Threat. Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books.

- Spaaij, Ramon. (2017). The Age of Lone Wolf Terrorism. Columbia University Press

- United States Department of State. (2022). Country Reports on Terrorism 2022. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov

-United States Department of State. (2024). Foreign terrorist organizations, from https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/