London's murder rate: Terror attacks and teen deaths push rate up again
The annual murder rate rose in 2017; holding the uptick since 2014.
It's that time of the year when I attempt to grab your attention by telling you all how deadly London has been. I arrogantly claim to be precise, more responsible than the London Evening Standard (Clicks! Ads! Revenue!) and louder than other news outlets.
2017 = shitshow. Better than 10, 15 and 20 years ago, but still a shitshow (HJ-inspired term). The horrors of the London Bridge terror attack and a surge in the number of teenagers murdered are what pushed last year's murder rate up compared to 2016. Unless I kept missing reports or the media intentionally stayed ambivalent, not much was said of the steady increase. Then came the media roar. Four dead in less than 24 hours as 2017 ended blood-soaked. A hellish spate in such a short space of time earned its merits. The usual insincere rabble-rousing from the incumbent mayor/top cop/MPs etc. followed. Meh.
The provisional number of homicides in the capital for 2017 stands at 135, including the 11 homicides of the London Bridge terror attack and six at Westminster. The assailants killed by the police were deemed justifiable homicides and are included in my metrics.
Overall, 2017 saw 26 more homicides than 2016, 15 more than 2015, and nearly 40 more than 2014. Some revisions might increase or decrease the 2017 number. The highest number on record is 222 in 2003.
- Excluding the terror attacks, 80 were stabbed to death - up from 61 in 2016 - and nine were shot (including a 14-year-old boy in Newham).
- At least 27 victims were teenagers (13-19) - the highest total since 2008. Of those, 20 were stabbed, six were shot and one by blunt force.
- The 20 teen lives lost to stabbings in London were out of at least 39 across England and Wales - "one of the worst in 40 years" (referring to the UK figure) says the Guardian's 'Beyond the blade' newsletter. Young black males disproportionately succumb to knife and gun crime in London, but that isn't the case for other cities in the UK. Read more here, it's important.
- At least 41 victims were in their twenties and at least 19 were in their thirties (excluding London Bridge). From here we can see that over half of all victims were below 30.
- Of all the victims (excluding London Bridge), at least 95 were male and at least 19 were female.
- There was at least one case of infanticide - a one-year-old boy in Finsbury Park - and at least one victim was aged below 12.
The usual boroughs saw their common share of youth violence last year, but there was a noticeable increase in gang activity and youth violence in west London (especially in the boroughs of Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham).
The worst affected borough was Newham* with 11 homicides (the worst I've ever recorded was Lambeth with 24 in 2008 - that borough has seen significant reductions over the last three years). All of Southwark's three* homicides occurred in Peckham - two teenagers and a 26-year-old.
My thoughts:
London has a relatively low homicide rate. It fairs much better than US cities and isn't remarkable, either way, compared with European cities. Rate or raw number. That doesn't mean the city isn't troubled, though. There are worrying trends. Youth murder, police cuts and so on. Youth violence is a resistant problem and tends to lead to retaliation. The reasons behind crime and murder are too complex to summarize succinctly for a LinkedIn article and I'm nowhere near educated enough to even try. Different 'types' of homicide - gang-related, drug-related, domestic - require different deterrents and prevention tactics.
I don't expect much improvement (if any) in 2018. If there is, it'll be by luck. Touted police cuts won't help anything but realistically the Met hasn't been left disabled and is still has a sizeable force. From here I'd say it's about smart policing (think New York - predicting, preventing, mending). I have no idea what the morale of the force is, what bureaucracy levels are like and if there is any corruption in the force (or to what extent).
The number of teenager murder victims needs addressing urgently because 2017 proved that what we saw in 2007 and 2008 can be repeated and that nothing has really been done despite pledges. But it's difficult. We need to actually implement long-term strategies, not just say 'we can tolerate this' time and time again. More intervention, better education, more responsibility, less/fewer cuts, more money for local/grassroots charities/outreach programmes. I don't actually know anyone in parliament who is a true strategist. The best we get is an emotional outburst from David Lammy or a thinktank's critique. It's the central government who is letting famalies down.
Better protection. Better housing. More social media monitoring, sadly - so much tension is exacerbated by it - specifically YouTube and Snapchat. Stabbings and other attacks are routinely filmed and shared privately on Snapchat. Goading on enemy territory being filmed then shared is also a common feature among young violence seekers. It thrills them.
May 2018 be safer for all
*Southwark's tally stands at 14 with the London Bridge terror attack victims included. Confirmed terror attacks are included or omitted usually depending on the scale and style of the attack. E.g., the NYPD didn't include 9/11 for its 2001 homicide total - an anomalous blip that needs its own category considering the huge number of victims and the way the attacks happened.