Lombard Chronicle - Day 22nd
Marco Saltalamacchia
Executive Vice President & CEO at Koelliker Group S.p.A. | Entrepreneur, Investor, and Business Advisor | Driving Innovation and Growth in the Automotive Industry
"Do not delude yourself that the enemy may not come, but always be ready to face him. Do not delude yourself that the enemy will not attack you, but rather make yourself unassailable. This is a fundamental rule of the Art of War." (Sun Tzu - 544-496 AC)
The beginning of the fourth week of "confinement" shows the first signs of what could become a real war of attrition and therefore requires a change of strategy.
The simple reading, almost cartomatic, of the data, in the hope of reading the reversal of the trend becomes, in itself, an almost unbearable action.
The data of the day yesterday inevitably lead us to the reading of the signals of heavy saturation of the system.
The new cases (detected, but we know that they are only a minority fraction of the total) were 1,592 (moreover, let us remember that the so-called "positive cases" are represented by the returns of the analysis of the oropharyngeal swabs, and therefore they photograph the situation of about 3-4 days ago).
More important is therefore the observation of the new hospitalized patients, because that is our "first line" where the most direct and hardest confrontation is recorded.
In the graph we observe how the total number of hospitalized patients grows without interruption at a rate of 400/500 units per day, and has reached almost 13,000 hospitalizations.
Of the 470 new hospitalized patients only 9 have found a place in intensive care, an unequivocal sign that from now on we are really in "unknown land".
The fatigue of the hospital system is, unfortunately, readable in the constant growth of hospital mortality, which has exceeded 22%.
Similarly. the equally constant growth in home admissions is more symptomatic of saturation than of the weakening of serious cases.
Discharges, which has exceeded 9,000 cases, is proceeding at a swinging pace, but still not robust enough to reduce the burden on health care.
Deaths remain at a high level and it is inevitable to observe that between 3% and 4% of those hospitalized (today 12,900).
The usual bulletin of the Istituto Superiore della Sanità does not provide much news on the distribution of deaths, which remains on average always around 78 years of age.
The international picture is instead in strong movement, while confirming the dynamics that we had already identified some time ago and which show that the "Italian question" was only a "matter of time".
On the other hand, the issues linked to the different lethality of the disease, which is increasingly evident in the graphic tables, deserve more in-depth examination:
These are difficult days and these are the days when the guard will have to be kept very high.
Better days will come, but in the meantime #stiamoacasa.
#teniamoduro #coronavirusitaly #washyourhands #coronavirusmilan #stayathome
Sources:
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