Logbook April 5, 2024

My [light] take on current affairs

Thoughts & Observations

Politics as a Service (PaaS): Subscribe to your beliefs!

No, this is not a real thing?—?but is this where we are headed? In the past two weeks, presidential candidates in both major parties have broken boundaries in fundraising.

First: President Biden teamed up with former Presidents Obama and Clinton to raise $26M in a single evening (AP) at Radio City Music Hall. Menu items included $100k for a picture, $250k for tickets to a reception, and a cool $500k for access to a more exclusive gathering. Afterward, First Lady Jill Biden and DJ D-Nice hosted an afterparty…none of the three Presidents wore neckties, I cannot confirm whether or not it was a rager.

Second: Former President Trump took his social media platform Truth Social public via SPAC creating a multi-billion-dollar paper wealth event for himself. Technically he is subject to a six-month lock-up, but the board could vote to ease those regulations. For those curious, the board includes Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, and Linda McMahon (Trump’s SBA head & cofounder of WWE) among others. By the way, the business had ~$4M in 2023 revenue and nearly a $60M 2023 operating loss. It feels like one way to look at this is more or less a political contribution mechanism outside the bounds of regulation.

I point these two events out because as one of the millions of disenfranchised voters who find themself “stuck in the middle” I feel like I am watching both ends of the political spectrum (and fervent supporters) getting closer to a fealty pledging than endeavoring to create meaningful, productive progress.

See “Fun with Charts” at the end of this Logbook…

One more note from last week’s energy news…

In recent years meaningful oil reserves ($150B+ potential) have been discovered off the coast of the South American country of Guyana. Lately, there has been significant criticism of the Guyanese plans to explore these reserves and tap this natural resource amidst growing international climate and alternative energy concerns. Complicating the debate is the fact that Guyana is home to (and plans to preserve) one of the densest and most bio-diverse rainforests in the world making them a rare carbon sink as a nation (carbon absorbed > carbon produced). That fact, coupled with 40% of the population living below the poverty line caused Guyana’s president Dr. Irfann Ali to fire back when pressed by BBC’s Stephen Sackur on his approach to managing this resource. My take after watching this interview…I wouldn’t bet against President Ifrann.

Full Interview: Dr. Irfann Ali on BBC’s HardTALK

Articles &?Books

Remember FANG? Over the years FANG became FAANG (can you believe Apple wasn’t part of the original F-A-N-G?), and then we watched as the Magnificent 7 helped us to put back on our rose-colored macro-glasses in 2023. Recent trends may indicate that The Stock Market’s Magnificent Seven is now the Fab Four (WSJ). The S&P 500 gained 10% in the first quarter despite heavyweights Apple and Tesla losing 11% and 30%, respectively.

BlackRock Chairman & CEO Larry Fink’s 2024 Annual Chairman’s Letter to Investors (BlackRock) was a pretty interesting read. While it is tough to not feel a little tinge of “Are you just talking your book, Larry?”?—?the letter does do an amazing job illustrating the remarkable power of U.S. capital markets, and the potential for wealth creation (across almost all demographics). While often repeated by Warren Buffet, it was actually Albert Einstein who first said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it…he who doesn’t…pays it”.

Other Reading/Content:

Amazon’s no-checkout flop shows AI’s limits (Axios)

Google Pledges to Destroy Browsing Data to Settle “Incognito” Lawsuit (WSJ)

What customers should know about AT&T’s massive data breach (CBS)

All-In podcast episode 172?—?SBF gets 25 years, Trump’s meme stock, RFK Jr picks VP, Biden’s 2025 budget & more

Acquired podcast: Airbnb— Recording Dec 10, 2020 (Airbnb IPO day)?—?History & Analysis of Airbnb

Fun with?Charts

Sometimes you just have to make your own chart…The sheer magnitude of the DJT market cap combined with the lack of revenue (or any other coherent KPIs) made me want to plot the P/S ratio of DJT vs other known tech and media businesses, so that is what I did below?—?please note that this is a logarithmic scale…??

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?Link to this commentary on Medium (future commentary to follow there)