Is Lockdown A Solution Looking For A Problem?

(4 minute read)

Few days back an industrialist said that the lockdown is a solution looking for a problem. The young and healthy need to go back to work. Before the USA led the world in Covid-19 confirmed cases and deaths, Elon Musk tweeted, the coronavirus panic is dumb.

If we were to believe them, the panic which has gripped the world would appear unfounded. We know that we are dealing with a virus which has no available cure. But shouldn’t we be worried? Shouldn’t we stay home? Isn’t social distancing needed? Or should we go back to our normal lives?

Mumbai has the highest number of cases (~3,000) in India and most of the city has been classified as a containment zone. In a city where around 20m people live, 3k may seem like a controlled situation. Afterall, more people get seasonal flu and die from it. Flu vaccine is not even popular in India; most people think that they do not need it even though the cost of the vaccine is less than even a day’s hospitalization. So, one wonders why a fear of lack of a vaccine for Covid-19 is there.

We fear because we do not know what to base our decisions on. The potential outcomes are uncertain, and we have no idea of the end result. But everyone is not afraid to the same degree. Mumbai has vast income inequalities. There are pockets which have wealth rivaling London’s Kensington Square, upper income areas with wealth like Taiwan, middle income population with wealth equivalent to the per capita income of Poland, and many living in abject poverty akin to South Sudan. The lockdown has become a forced measure for many, as the economic costs have become clearer.

Social distancing has been whole heartedly accepted by people with means, but not so much by the underprivileged. As you step out on the streets wearing your mask, maintaining social distancing, and doing all the right things, you observe that there are large number of people without any protective gear and in close proximity to each other. If Mumbai has to maintain the 6-feet norm, people will reach Pune, so goes a WhatsApp joke.

As people queue up outside ATMs and pharmacies, being compelled to stand in the circles drawn to maintain distance, people walk past them close enough to render the distancing useless. People shopping in the kirana and farsan shops are displaying lesser patience, despite the circles. As a young lady pushed her way through to the front, an elderly man shouted spitefully, “Have you come from jannat (heaven) that you will be given priority? You look educated, can’t you see the circles?” Educated or cultured or not, when it comes to saving time (a rare commodity), we all behave just the same. The long queues test our patience, and the rains haven't even started in Mumbai.

While people in the high rises have locked themselves in, stocked food and other essentials enough to last them months, practicing social distancing and protecting themselves and their loved ones, the scene outside is quite the opposite. As people get weary of the lockdown and forced social norms, the dam of patience is about to break. Out of work and with their meagre savings drying up, people are waiting for the lockdown to be over. Unemployment levels have shot up sharply from 8% at the beginning of March to 26% in mid-April, according to CMIE. Another estimate suggests that an estimated 100m people will slip below the poverty line of $3.20 a day. Such are the contradictions in the battle with the pandemic.

Top scientists and doctors have said that its not a question of when this pandemic will end (which may take a couple of years) but how we intend to stay safe when we resume normal life. Some experts are predicting 60% of the Indians will be infected within one year. Despite all this, yesterday the government permitted opening of shops in residential and market complexes of non-containment zones, with 50% staff strength. There is a plan to get people back to their normal lives since lockdowns have a frightening cost. Governments across the world have tried to ‘flatten the curve’ with varying degrees of success, and India is even being lauded for its timely measures. But now that it is time to open up, how will people be told that the pre-Covid world does not exist, that there is a high chance of a second wave of infections? The lockdown has reset the clock and has bought all of us some time to digest how vulnerable we are to the virus. But, as the relaxations come back and streets get filled up with people, infections are likely to rise. Testing will not be available on a truly mass scale, asymptomatic cases will abound, and there is no vaccine in sight for at least a year. The anxious few in the high rises may continue to stay home, but the most likely way forward to complete normalcy appears to be herd immunity, until a vaccine can be developed and widely distributed. There is a human cost to this, but the hard choices, for the government and for us, are just about beginning.

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About the author

Anindya Karmakar has led multiple initiatives at the cutting edge of digital lending, IoT, robotics, AI, analytics, paperless branch and remote advisory. He is passionate about the digital revolution which is underway. He simplifies and de-clutters digital jargons and concepts and presents them in layman's language.

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The views and opinions expressed or implied herein are my own and do not reflect those of my employer, who shall not be liable for any action that may result as a consequence of my views and opinions. The pictures used have been taken from the open internet and I don't claim any credit for them. If you would like them to be removed, please contact me