Is lockdown a complete solution? Or just a reset button?

Every country has reacted to the outbreak very differently. Most chose to go for the lockdown and some went for excessive testing, keeping the economy open for essential run.

No one can say for certain that there wont be a single case of this epidemic post the lockdown. In Indias case, even if the lockdown persists till April end, we cant be certain if there wont be any case still out there. And if there will be even a single case post the lockdown, it will multiply again. So essentially, many countries will have to face cycles of the pandemic going up and down. 

Lockdown is like a reset button, only helpful to control the exponential growth and provide some breather to the overwhelming medical infrastructure. India and China decided to go for lockdown before it went to a truly unmanageable state. Iran has been the last entrant to the lockdown when the no of cases has already reached a 32000. US, ITALY, Spain, Iran all chose to go into the lockdown later when the medical infrastructure is already overwhelmed and they are facing shortages of ventilators, armors for the front line doctors etc 

In China, as they are about to reopen the economy and place Wuhan out of a lockdown, their biggest worry is getting an infection from within their borders. They are preparing themselves for the second cycle.

Let's face it, the virus is here and it is spreading exponentially which will cause a lot of human and economic loss. 

But is lockdown the most optimized solution which will ensure the least possible loss?

Lockdown for more than 2 months will be a huge blow to the economy cutting off the entire value chain from each other and will have substantial ripple effects. Many large conglomerates like future group are facing trouble with market capitalization going down by 67%. Many companies are at the verge of defaulting on their debt payments. Online retail will possibly lose a 1Bn$s during the lockdown period. All this will most certainly have a ripple effect in terms of unemployment in the coming months with many losing jobs in the coming economic downturn catalysed by the corona pandemic. Many countries are using as high as 10% of the GPD to fight the situation.

In India specifically, the lockdown has worked in other developed nations to a degree, will be a complex implementation in India with the majority of the population being labours who live in the slums where a social distancing will be an issue.

Millions are migrant labour migrants who live on daily wages are scared of their daily fuel and running back to their villages in large proportions, increasing the chances of a community spread. These migrants are going back to their villages where the medical infrastructure is already poor. In its extreme, this can push towards chaos in the agricultural space which can tomorrow, in turn, create food shortages for the entire economy, giving the potential possibility of communal riots. 

With vaccination possibly a year from here, what’s the solution if not for the lockdown? 

South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan has been outliers in the entire process and has adopted excessive testing as an approach to combat coronavirus keeping the economy partially open.

The only option in the absence of vaccination is quarantine basis excessive testing to be done keeping the essential movement like medical, grocery shopping etc open, along with essential movement within the economy open as well. Preventing any event or a business that causes a large gathering. Propagating work from home for all businesses all at times. By keeping the necessary movement open, the economy will not only survive but most importantly the government will get a chance to proactively test individuals as they move out for essentials. 

Where is India wrt to testing vs the others? Are we fully optimizing on the capacity?

Many leaders across the countries have spoken of lesser available testing kits. India has about 1.5 lac testing kits. With each kit having the capacity to do 100 a day with multiple runs possible, and a capacity to test multiple samples per run, the capacity is looking understated with the possibility of 1.50 cr a day, vs what we are doing today about a 2000. Something is missing and not adding up.

We have jumped the possible testing to 6000 a day now as on 30th march. The limitation is not the shortage of kits but the laboratories. India has about 118 authorized labs at the moment. each doing about 20 samples a day. In contrast to India, south korea has about ~700 labs doing about 30 cases a day. Most of the current labs in India are underutilized, largely because they are seeing lesser cases of people coming over to test. Cost @ 4500 is one reason but there can several reasons in terms of logistical inability during a lockdown to general ignorance towards the disease.

If there can a process to get the swabs to multiple labs within the states, the capacity can be increase and we can figure a selective lockdown basis the infected individuals, areas and age groups.

Also if a Testing kit ( Cost around a 1200-4500 rps) and PCR machine ( Cost around a 3 lacs rps ) are the core elements of a testing laboratory, the return on capital @ a 4500 rps per testing seems to be very high considering the capacity to do 90 cases a day. ROC can one great way to bring in a lot of investment into opening up labs as it’s a very lucrative business for one at the current cost to test

Summary: The economy should be opened on 15th April. The government should use this time to build the infrastructure of excessive testing, selective lockdown and open up as many labs as much as possible.