The Lock-down Legacy. A New Normal

The current crisis is disrupting grocery categories here and now. But what are the likely longer-term effects that we can start planning for? In this post, I offer five highly likely shifts in people’s priorities - thought starters for innovation streams.

In recent weeks, research providers have been working hard to keep track of people’s head space since the onset of corona virus. Any visit to a supermarket will also illustrate how consumer priorities have shifted. Who isn’t home baking these days?

Some providers have gone so far as to enquire how people intend to behave after corona-virus. This has been blasted by some commentators, who remind us that this is stepping into the realms of speculation. And some remind us that history indicates that things will most likely return to normal. 15 months after 9/11, people returned to normal flying patterns, for example.

Whilst I am on board with the pitfalls of asking people to predict their futures, I am not convinced that things will return to normal. In many aspects of our lives there will be a new normal, an expression we're all going to have to get use to! In some cases, this will merely be an acceleration of what was already happening - such as how we shop for our groceries. Data collected by MMR and Toluna in April 2020 indicates that 12% U.S and 8% U.K households have been prompted to complete their first online grocery shop since lock-down. This isn't going to go backwards. And 9/11 did have a lasting effect on people's attitudes towards security and personal freedom.

As we all look to the future, I am guided by marketing science, which states that short term impacts will most likely lead to long term impacts. Conversely, there will be no long term impact without a short term one.

It is with this mantra, that I offer five possible shifts in people’s priorities post COVID-19, each based upon short term impacts that are known.

DEEPER SAVOURMENT

For many, life in lock down has presented an opportunity to slow down and take stock. Literally millions of workers have been furloughed. Prevented from working. Paid for by the government. And for all of us, we’ve had extra time to ponder what really matters. With the future uncertain, there is a collective realisation that all we have is now. And for that, we must be thankful. I believe that people’s craving for weird and wonderful innovation, from blue smoothies to extreme flavours of potato chips, will detour towards more immersive product experiences. There will be an acceleration of slow food and drink and products that are sensorially complex.

Trailblazer: H?agen-Dazs (Global). With less air overrun, this brand of ice cream has always been denser than the competition. That’s why it melts more slowly and offers longer lasting and more intense pleasure. Where could this distinctive feature go next?

ROBUST DEFENCES

COVID-19 comes with the biggest global advertising campaign of all time. The key message is that we’re more vulnerable than we thought. Sales of hand sanitizers and cleaning products have reached stratospheric levels. Compounded by an existing universal insight that ‘health is wealth’, we can be sure that people will continue to place more importance on their immunity. Last week, MMR & TOLUNA polled nearly 5,000 people across the U.K, U.S, South Africa and China, and found that immunity is now either a #1 or #2 health priority in these markets.

Trailblazer: Biotiful Dairy Kefir (U.K). After bubbling under for many years, COVID-19 has given gut health a pointed edge, with sales rising dramatically across Europe and U.S. In this new normal, could dairy fight back with a powerful new mission?

MICRO-TREATING

One short term impact of the virus has been the sharp downturn in sales of high-end luxury goods. Such purchases seem almost vulgar as so many lose their lives. And despite the commendable efforts of brands like Burberry to help with the war effort, I would suggest that for some time to come, the luxury sector will remain muted as people save for rainy days. But with massively increased levels of anxiety, I also see a rise in emotion based treating occasions that are fleeting: short but deserved moments that reward and comfort. 

Trailblazer: Coconut Collaborative (U.K) has been gaining distribution in the U.K with a growing range of micro-desserts. Intensely pleasurable and because it is plant based, the experience feels somewhat more permissible. Likely to be additive to overall treating occasions. Win!

CLOSER CONNECTIONS

Before COVID-19, I wrote about increasing levels of loneliness in society, brought about by More Siloed Living. The current crisis puts this on steroids. In future, it is highly likely that people will place greater value on time spent with family and friends - and that they will want to mark these occasions more.

Trailblazer: AB InBev (China) did not waste time re-pointing its communications and innovation to prepare for the life after lock down. They did research to understand the dynamics of connection. Understand how people were feeling. This planning is helping the company's brands get it right as China emerges from the lock down. 

SCIENCE RULES

Faced with catastrophe, people have been turning to science over nature to protect themselves and their families. Science has been given a very high profile during this pandemic and I believe that its status will remain elevated in the choices people make for a long time to come. We will see an acceleration of ‘science’ being added back into naturally set products. Fortification will return in a big way.

Trailblazer: Yakult (Global). For years this brand stuck to its original recipe of 20 billion L. casei Shirota bacteria. But in 2019, it made what turned out to be a very timely decision to fortify its recipe with Vitamin D. Recent scientific papers have found a link between vitamin D people's ability to resist respiratory infections.

It goes without saying that compared with the heroism of key workers on the front line, innovation planning is secondary. But it is also true that disruption creates conditions for new ideas. We must use this time to stop and think about where events are likely to take us. It is my hope that this article has offered you something to help shape your plans. 

MMR has adapted to meet client needs in the current situation. So, let us help you move forward with integrity. Co-creation and testing is still being progressed with engaged consumers who really want to help. Just ask. 

Do get in touch if you'd like a recording of our recent webinar, Winning in Immunity, which was broadcast on Wednesday 22nd April 2020.