Local Social License in the Age of Global Disinformation

Most resource or major infrastructure projects are impacted by misinformation at some point in their lifecycle. These impacts can slow development or scuttle projects altogether.

The playbook to avoid misinformation is simple - in theory. Provide information to avoid an information void that can be filled by others. Build local trusted partnerships. Ensure local benefits. Continue to be present, engage and communicate.

Misinformation typically has local origins as the rumor mill gets going, or sometimes it is furthered by national interests or organizations opposed to development.

But what happens when disinformation is sophisticated and perpetuated by state actors?

This is likely happening in the United States in the wake of hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Disinformation efforts by states such as China and Russia have been well documented. These campaigns have been designed to sow dissent, impact elections, and undermine a range of domestic and international policies. Recent campaigns have involved the use of AI for content and visuals and direct payments to right-wing social media personalities to spread narratives.

The current disinformation campaign in the United States includes three components:

1. Rather than climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, the US government is seeding hurricanes with planes and setting wildfires.
2. The hurricanes and wildfires are targeting resource rich areas, specifically rare earth metals used in renewable energy infrastructure, to clear the areas for development.
3. The hurricanes are being targeted to Republican areas, and the US government is withholding aid to these areas.

While dismissing this as just another conspiracy theory is easy, the design is sophisticated and targets key elements of climate change mitigation and renewable energy development.

Some context setting is important to understand the design and intended impacts of this disinformation:

• The US will be one of the worst hit major countries by the direct impacts of climate change. From heat, water shortages, crop failures, to major storms – the impacts are severe and will further destabilize the US.
• Rare earth metal extraction and refinement is currently controlled by China due to a concerted effort to capture the value chain over the last 30 years. Many have said that coal powered the 19th century, oil the 20th and rare earths will power the 21st. Metals with names like scandium, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, rare earths are used in everything from magnets to batteries,? smart phones and defence technology. The West is currently attempting to restart rare earth mining, processing and advanced manufacturing in their own countries in the name of security.
• Last, it may seem like science fiction, but geoengineering will be required to mitigate climate change. Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for over 200 years, so even if we hit net zero today the impacts of climate change would persist for centuries. We also lack the industrial capacity to build and deploy tens of thousands of carbon capture plants in the time frame required. So different forms of solar radiation modification (SRM) will be required. Both the technology and governance models are being developed for SRM. It may include spraying aerosols into the stratosphere or creating large clouds near coastlines – all to reflect energy from the sun back into space.

This context provides a deeper understanding of the purpose of this disinformation. It is designed to do four things:

1. Further the already deep divides in the United States and continue to destabilize it as the election looms.
2. Continue to undermine climate change mitigation in the United States, the impacts of which will further destabilize it.
3. Decrease social license for rare earth mines in the United States before they are widely proposed, negatively impacting energy security and continuing reliance on China.
4. Ensure solar radiation modification cannot even be proposed, eliminating a critical technology that could cool coastal waters, reducing the energy available for hurricanes and play a role in global climate change mitigation.

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So, what to do when faced with well-resourced and strategic disinformation on this scale?

The first step is to realize how global events can impact local projects and to keep that PESTEL updated. The second is to double down on the stewardship of local social license and develop trust and relationships to see you through challenging times. Consider proactive information campaigns to ‘pre-bunk’, rather than debunk disinformation. Lastly, support policies and investments to inoculate the public against misinformation and disinformation from any source on any topic. This often involves efforts to increase public media literacy and support for education systems that provide a broader base of knowledge for all students.

The pace and sophistication of disinformation will continue to accelerate as the tools of the trade become more advanced and the stakes higher. However, for organizations, the fundamentals of social license remain the same and become more important than ever.

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Terminology Note: Misinformation refers to false information that is not intended to cause harm. Disinformation refers to false information that is intended to manipulate, cause damage and guide people, organizations and countries in the wrong direction. (Canadian Centre of Cybersecurity)

Jon works with energy efficiency organizations, utilities and energy producers to help them better understand their customers and how to communicate with them.

Jon believes communication is an essential part of building social license and public support for policy and projects that move us forward. Beyond the energy industry, Jon has supported pro-social behaviour change in the areas health, violence prevention, waste, inclusion, and finance.

His work is informed by course work in behavioural economics with the University of Virginia, University of Toronto and Ogilvy. He is currently an MBA candidate with Queen Mary, University of London, UK.