Local elections in Poland – what are the results?

PiS's (Law and Justice, right-wing and national-conservative party) victory in provincial assembly elections across the country lifted the party's spirits ahead of the European Parliament elections (9 June 2024). A good result for the Koalicja Obywatelska? (the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk; EPP/RE/Greens/EFA) will strengthen its position in the ruling majority, especially at the expense of the increasingly weak left-wing. The problem for the ruling majority, however, is lower voter mobilization.

According to the results of the State Election Commission, in the elections to the 16 provincial assemblies, PiS won 34.3% and 239 seats nationwide, the Civic Coalition 30.6% and 210 seats, Trzecia Droga (the Third Way; the coalition of two center parties – Poland 2050 and PSL; RE/EPP) 14.3% and 80 seats, Konfederacja? (the Confederation; a right-wing and Eurosceptic coalition; N1) 7.2% and 6 seats, and Lewica (the Left; a social-democratic party; S&D) 6.3% and 8 seats. The results of all parties are similar to those of the October 2023 parliamentary elections. What are the political implications of these outcomes for each wing?

PiS got up from its knees

Law and Justice was afraid of taking second place in the local elections and dropping support below 30 percent, as most polls over the last month indicated. This would worsen the looming crisis and strengthen the voices of discontent within the party, threatening splits. From this perspective, the 34.3 percent result is a major success, as the party has halted its decline and mobilized its supporters after a painful defeat in the October 2023 parliamentary elections. Voter turnout in the countryside, where PiS dominates, was virtually the same as six months ago. PiS will rule in five provinces, compered to seven previosly. At the same time, the party failed to promote new faces. Candidates for mayors of large cities scored poorly.

KO achieved success, but with unsatisfactory results

The Civic Coalition will take power in 11 provincial assemblies. However, despite the very good result (30.6 %), it still needs to learn how to increase turnout in the European elections on 9.06. Usually the smallest number of citizens vote in these elections, which will favor the mobilized Eurosceptic electorate of PiS and Confederation. The elections to the assemblies showed that the ruling majority's voter motivation has weakened. Nearly 75% of voters went to the polls in the October 2023 parliamentary elections, while about half of eligible voters went to the polls in Sunday's assembly elections. In the largest cities, where KO dominates, turnout was nearly 6 percentage points lower than six months ago. This was pointed out by Donald Tusk himself, as he wrote at 8:04 a.m. on X, "What's worrying? Demobilization, especially among the young, failure in the east and in the countryside. The conclusion for us? Don't whine! Let's get to work!"

A yellow card for the Third Way

The 14.3% for the Third Way is almost identical to the parliamentary result - an election in which the PSL always performs better. It's also only 2.2 percentage points better than PSL's 2018 result alone. Particularly worrisome for the Third Way is that they maintained only half of their October 2023 supporters. Every fourth person from them voted for KO in the assembly elections this time, which confirms the theory that some of the Coalition's voters "tactically" voted for TD in the parliamentary elections. The People's Party still declares its will to run together with Poland 2050 in the European elections, although some may begin to question this "marriage of convenience" as not worth the effort. Therefore, Szymon Ho?ownia wants to confirm the continuation of cooperation in the elections to the European Parliament as soon as possible.

Moderate success of the Confederation

7.2% in the national scale was a success for the Confederation, for which this was the most difficult election due to its limited structures. The result was helped somewhat by a coalition with the Nonpartisan Local Government Activists. The Confederation's council member in Podlasie (a?province in northeastern?Poland) will likely allow PiS to maintain its majority in that province. The upcoming European elections are the easiest for the Confederation - it is favored by the usually lower turnout and an anti-EU message, through which the party gathers a Eurosceptic electorate.

The increasingly weak left-wing

The Left's weak result (6.3%) provokes the other coalition partners (KO and Third Way) to limit its influence in the government (the Left has a deputy prime minister). Shortly after the elections PSL Deputy Speaker of the Sejm Piotr Zgorzelski attacked the Left for raising the issue of abortion in the campaign and suggested that the function of rotating Speaker of the Sejm for Wlodzimierz Czarzasty of the Left (this is what the coalition pact stated - half a term as Speaker from the Third Way, half a term from the Left) was unnecessary. Given the KO's turn to the left, questions about the future of the formation's existence will increasingly arise. One in four of the Left's October 2023 supporters voted for KO, as well. It is possible that in the European elections, the Left will be forced to run togehter with KO to secure some seats at least.

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