Local Elections are crucial for the survival of PiS
The most important political event in Poland in 2024 will be the local elections, likely to be held on April 7th, with the date to be announced by the Prime Minister. These elections take place on four levels:
The Most Crucial Battle – Provincial Assemblies
The elections to the provincial assemblies are the best indicator of party support at the national level among all levels of local governance (only slightly distorted by regional committees). Poland is divided into 16 provinces, each governed by an assembly. PiS (Law and Justice party, part of the United Right) currently co-governs in seven provinces, but polling trends are unfavourable for this party. A projected reduction in the number of assemblies in which PiS stays in power, or a defeat in a second consecutive election, would demotivate party activists.
City Presidents – The Domain of Koalicja Obywatelska (the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk; EPP/RE/Greens/EFA) and Independent Candidates
In provincial cities, independent candidates cooperating with the Civic Coalition (or politicians from this party) have been winning for years. In the capital, the current mayor Rafa? Trzaskowski is most likely to win, and the scale of his victory will probably be decisive for his candidacy in the 2025 presidential elections. The biggest uncertainty today is Krakow (a southern Poland city), which will change leadership after 22 years under Jacek Majchrowski. For PiS, the city president elections will be an opportunity to promote younger, often less known candidates, who are not afraid to take a defeat. In 2018, PiS won elections in only five out of 107 presidential cities, the largest of which had just under 60,000 residents.
The Toughest Elections for PiS
The local elections were scheduled for the fall of 2023, but the Sejm (the lower house of the Polish parliament), with PiS votes, postponed them by half a year. Officially, this was because the local election campaign would coincide with the parliamentary elections. However, PiS feared that a defeat in the local elections would weaken its results in the parliamentary elections. After the defeat in the elections to the Sejm and Senate, it will be even harder for PiS to fight for success. The local elections are the toughest for this party because they take place on several levels, and PiS is strongest at the least media-covered level of the smallest towns.
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From PiS's perspective, losing control of the public media three months before the elections is devastating, as the PiS-aligned private media outlet - Telewizja Republika - has limited reach (although growing at the expense of the public TVP Info). The PiS-led "defense of public media" is intended to push party members into action after the defeat in the parliamentary elections, which was not entirely expected. Rumours also aim to stabilize the situation within the party, suggesting that Jaros?aw Kaczyński will not resign from leading PiS. The chairman previously announced that his term would end in 2024, before the next year's presidential elections. However, there are signals that he might remain as the PiS chairman "for life."
Kaczyński's stay at the helm of the party may be perceived as a vote of no confidence in Mateusz Morawiecki, who was being groomed as his successor. The competition between MM and the faction centred around former Prime Minister Beata Szyd?o and former Minister of National Defence Mariusz B?aszczak could destabilize the situation in PiS to the point of its disintegration. Kaczyński does not want to retire as a politician who handed over power in the country and allowed the party he created to fall. The local government campaign is the last chance to internally strengthen the party. A weak result could even lead to the dissolution of PiS.
The Governing Majority – What is the configuration?
For the new parliamentary majority – Koalicja Obywatelska, Trzecia Droga (the Third Way; the coalition of two center parties – Poland 2050 and PSL; RE/EPP), and Nowa Lewica (the New Left; a social-democratic party; S&D) – the decisive factor will be the configuration in which they enter the local elections at the provincial assembly level. For the Civic Coalition, it would be most beneficial to weaken its coalition partners by pulling them onto a joint list and cannibalizing them. Especially since in the most media-covered mayoral elections, candidates from the Civic Coalition or independent politicians close to them usually win. Starting from a joint list and defeating PiS at the national level would thus complete the image of "Donald Tusk's party winning the elections."
However, after the coalition of three lists won the parliamentary elections, such a scenario is unlikely. Poland 2050 would be interested in a joint start with the Polish People's Party again, because of their incomparably more developed local structures. Maintaining the coalition capability of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and New Left means that the new parliamentary majority is the favourite to win the elections in most provincial assemblies and to build coalitions there (similarly to what happened in parliament). The outcome of the local elections will also determine the formula in which the ruling majority will enter the European Parliament elections on June 9th. Defeating PiS in the provincial assembly elections will reduce the likelihood of a joint start of the ruling majority in the European elections. The European Parliament elections will be the last campaign test before the presidential elections in mid-2025.
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