The local election results are in, so what do they tell us?

With the results from the local elections now declared, the mission for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to secure a fifth consecutive general election victory for the Conservative Party looks to have got tougher. The results from Thursday’s elections exceeded the Conservatives' worst predictions with more than 1,000 Conservative seats changing hands - primarily going to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Now that the dust has settled on the local elections, Consultant George Biggs reflects on some of the ramifications of the results, with analysis from Lexington’s Senior Counsel Simon Burton OBE and Ben Nunn .?

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Conservative calm, for now?

Simon says: “Whilst former councillors across the country will be angry at losing their seats and positions as a result of what they see as incompetence nationally over the past 12 months or so, this anger has yet to spread over into Westminster. MPs have remained largely supportive of the Prime Minister – who has only been in place for six months.”?

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Nonetheless, Sunak and the Conservative campaign team now face a tricky 18 months combatting a pincer movement of a re-energised Labour Party in the North of England and Scotland, and increasingly confident Liberal Democrats in key Southern seats. Whilst such polls, which have low turnouts, are not always the best guides to future national election, there will be concern amongst some in the Conservative party. Rishi Sunak moved on Monday to try reassure voters by stating that delivering on his five pledges to improve the country will not happen “overnight” and that they are the “rights ones” for the country.?

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Sunak is facing dissent from a vocal group on the backbenches around policy on China, taxation, and housing. However, as Sir Keir had to do when he took over his party, Rishi Sunak and his team are quietly repairing damage caused by the two previous administrations. The question is - with the Conservatives now out of potential coalition partners - whether that can happen in time to hold onto No 10.?

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Labour on the march – but is it fast enough??

The Labour Party picked up 536 seats making them the largest party of local government – a first since 2002. Pleasing for the Labour Party and its Leader Sir Keir Starmer is where the party picked up some of its biggest gains; in Kent with Medway Council and in Wiltshire with Swindon Council. In total Labour has taken control of a further 22 councils, seven directly from the Conservatives.??

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Another sign of their improved electoral success is that the party came just one seat short of an overall majority in Darlington and Hartlepool, with the two Tees Valley target councils remaining under no overall control. Additionally, they retook Stoke-on-Trent and East Staffordshire councils from Conservative control and picked up seats and councils in the North West, and across the Midlands. These results will give Labour strategists hope that the party can recapture Westminster seats they had lost in 2019 – particularly old ‘red wall’ ones.?

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This is Labour’s largest local election lead over the Conservatives since 2010 – the year the keys to Downing Street changed hands. They are now the largest party of local government at a time when devolution is becoming increasingly important and present in voters' consciousness. However, Labour’s share of the vote was no better than what the party achieved last year. For the Conservatives, the results are a sign that the electoral coalition the party pulled together in 2019 is closer to breaking point. ?

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Ben says: “Starmer and his team are buoyant. The local election results exceeded some of Labour’s own expectations and showed the party is making in-roads in the seats that it needs to win at a general election. Does that mean victory is in the bag? No.??

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Senior advisers in Labour HQ are acutely aware that the hard work starts now. They need to build a campaign that can not only get Starmer into Number 10, but secure Labour a majority in the House of Commons.”?

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Rise of the Lib Dems?

The Liberal Democrats have also rediscovered their electoral form, at least at a local level, with surprising successes across the south, taking Surrey Heath and Windsor and Maidenhead from the Conservatives. The party picked up 407 seats, winning 12 councils. ?

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Simon says: “Before they entered coalition government in 2010, the Lib Dems strength was in their local government base and they are returning to this winning formula. But their performance is unlikely to be repeated in a general election unless they can secure tactical support from Labour voters; whether they can do this remains to be seen.”?

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Leader of the Liberal Democrats Sir Ed Davey left open the door on Sunday to the prospect of a Labour-Lib Dem post-election coalition, having specifically ruled one with the Conservatives out. Overall national voting extrapolations from these elections also suggests that Labour haven't yet done enough to secure an outright majority - so the questions about potential coalition partners will only grow. Starmer too has added fuel to speculation by refusing seven times to rule out such a coalition, whilst continuing to refute the possibility of one with the SNP.??

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Going Green?

Simon says: Like the Lib Dems, the Green Party had a very good set of results gaining almost 250 councillors. Taking overall control of a council for the first time ever in Mid Suffolk council was the standout result and gaining 18 councillors in East Hertfordshire to become the largest party also demonstrated that it is not only the Lib Dems benefitting in previously solid Conservative areas. It wasn’t all good news though and they will be disappointed with losing 13 councillors in Brighton – which could be interesting for Caroline Lucas come the general election.??