Living in a Multipolar World – A System Design Perspective: Part 2 Instability, Chaos & Transition to the New World Order

In Part 1 of this series, we explored the historical and geopolitical shifts that have set the stage for the transition to a multipolar world. Now, in Part 2, we delve into the instability and chaos that characterize this transition, examining the forces at play and their implications for leaders and individuals alike.

The next 6–9 months are pivotal. The world finds itself in tumult, with profound changes and repercussions that will shape the trajectory of our shared future.

For business leaders, this is not just about surviving the current turbulence but also an opportunity to pause, recalibrate, and align long-term company goals with the evolving global order.

For individuals, this moment demands introspection and a recalibration of personal and professional aspirations. Rather than perceiving the present as a glass half-empty, we must view it as a glass half-full—a chance to identify and seize emerging opportunities amidst the uncertainty.

A Poetic Parallel: “Morte d’Arthur” by Lord Alfred Tennyson

The cover image and inspiration for this article are drawn from Tennyson’s poignant poem Morte d’Arthur, written about the dying moments of King Arthur after his final battle. Arthur’s words, encapsulated in:

“The old order changeth, yielding place to new,

And God fulfils himself in many ways,

Lest one good custom should corrupt the world.”

resonate deeply with today’s reality. The poem portrays the end of an era and the emergence of a new one—a narrative that mirrors our transition from a unipolar world dominated by a single hegemonic power to the complexities of a multipolar global landscape.

Geostrategic Trends Shaping Chaos

To understand the chaos engulfing the world today, we turn to three critical geostrategic trends as outlined by renowned diplomat and scholar Alfredo Toro Hardy. These trends illuminate the battles shaping the emerging world order:

Trend 1: The Rise of a Revisionist Axis - This trend represents a coalition of states challenging the post-World War II liberal international order. Principal actors such as China and Russia aim to consolidate spheres of influence and expand geostrategic power, challenging the dominance of established powers.

Countries such as China, Russia, and Iran are spearheading efforts to challenge the liberal international order established post-World War II.

? China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to create a vast network of trade routes, cementing its influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Examples like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and investments in African infrastructure highlight this strategy.

? Russia’s military actions, including the invasion of Ukraine, are efforts to reassert its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.

? Iran’s regional ambitions, fuelled by proxy conflicts with Israel and other Middle Eastern actors, underscore this axis’s intent to redraw traditional power dynamics.

Trend 2: Alliances Preserving the Status Quo -On the other side, we see a strengthening of alliances among nations committed to maintaining the rules-based international order. Led by actors like the United States and European allies, this trend seeks to counterbalance the ambitions of the revisionist axis.

In response, alliances like NATO, the QUAD (U.S., Japan, India, and Australia), and AUKUS (Australia, U.K., U.S.) are doubling down on efforts to counteract revisionist powers.

? India’s Act East Policy and deepening ties with Southeast Asian nations illustrate how middle powers align with larger coalitions to ensure security and economic growth.

? The EU’s Green Deal and transatlantic partnerships also reflect a commitment to preserving liberal democratic values.

Trend 3: The Rise of Far-Right Populism - A third, distinct trend emerges from within the Western bloc itself—a far-right populist movement that seeks to deconstruct the liberal international order from within. Unlike the first two trends, which primarily oppose each other, this movement destabilizes the second trend, creating internal fragmentation

Within the West, far-right movements challenge the liberal order from within.

? The U.S., with the re-election of Donald Trump, signals a potential shift toward isolationism and protectionism, impacting global trade and diplomacy.

? The rise of leaders like Marine Le Pen in France or Viktor Orbán in Hungary reflects a growing rejection of globalization and supranational institutions like the EU.

Events Shaping Today’s Instability and the Economic and Geopolitical fallout

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This war has disrupted global energy markets, triggering an energy crisis in Europe and in the global south ,forcing nations to rethink energy strategies. Countries like Germany are pivoting toward renewable energy and diversifying suppliers, marking a long-term shift in energy security policies.

Proxy Conflicts in the Middle East

The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel threaten to destabilize an already volatile region. The Abraham Accords, promoting normalization between Israel and some Arab states, offer a glimmer of hope but remain vulnerable to these conflicts.

Emerging Middle Powers

Countries like India, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey are carving out independent paths, adding on to the current chaos as they also want their stakes in the emerging power dynamics :

? India’s leadership at the G20 and its growing tech sector position it as a key player in global governance, especially in the global south.

? Brazil’s push for regional integration under President Lula signals a renewed focus on South-South cooperation.

The U.S. Election Outcome: Donald Trump’s return to power marks a significant shift in American policy, with implications for global stability and has escalated the pace of change….. the picture will be clearer in a couple of months, as he takes office.

Emerging Alliances and Trade Routes

As the world order fractures, new partnerships and trade routes are emerging to fill the void left by traditional power structures. In the Indo-Pacific region, for instance, initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are countering China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). IMEC aims to provide alternative trade routes and partnerships, creating economic interdependence while limiting reliance on any one geopolitical actor.

? Example: India’s growing influence at the G20 underscores its role as a key player in shaping the future economic order.

Another significant shift is the reshaping of energy dynamics. The war in Ukraine has forced a reevaluation of energy sourcing, with countries seeking energy independence by investing in renewables and diversifying supply chains. Germany, for example, has accelerated investments in wind and solar energy, marking a paradigm shift in the global energy strategy.

Technological and Cultural Shifts

In addition to economic and political changes, technological dominance is a new frontier of competition. The race for semiconductors and AI innovation reflects a battle for the future, mirroring earlier conflicts over control of maritime routes and colonial territories. Nations are not only focusing on military strength but also on technological supremacy to shape the multipolar world.

? Example: The U.S. CHIPS Act and China’s ambitions in 5G technology highlight the centrality of technology in modern geopolitics.

Culturally, emerging powers like India and Nigeria are leveraging soft power through cinema and media, reshaping global perceptions and asserting their influence. Nigeria’s Nollywood and India’s Bollywood are changing how the world sees African and Asian cultures, providing an avenue for cultural diplomacy.

Reflective Questions for Leaders in the New World Order

As we navigate this complex and chaotic transition, leaders must reflect on the following key questions to guide their strategic decisions:

? How can we recalibrate our long-term goals to align with the shifting geopolitical dynamics?

? What new partnerships and trade routes should we explore to diversify our global footprint?

? How can we adapt our economic strategies to reduce dependence on unstable sources and invest in sustainable alternatives?

? What steps can we take to harness technological advancements while mitigating associated risks?

? How do we balance the pursuit of national interests with global cooperation in a multipolar world?

Conclusion: Embracing the Chaos and Opportunity

In the midst of this instability, there lies significant opportunity. As we face the chaos of transitioning to a multipolar world, leaders and individuals alike have the chance to reshape their strategies, innovate, and adapt to a world of complex interdependencies. By understanding the geostrategic trends, new alliances, and emerging economic pathways, we can navigate the turbulence and emerge stronger. This is a time of profound change, but it is also a time of great potential.? The question remains: How will you prepare for the opportunities of the multipolar world?

If you haven’t read the first part in this series , here is a link to that https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/living-multipolar-world-system-design-perspective-gdhqf