'The Little Mermaid' About to Make Big Waves With Audiences - Ticket Sales Tracking (5/22-5/25)

Hi,

I've been tracking ticket sales for movies recently at my two local NJ AMCs that do fairly well.

Last week, Dom and the family ignited the NOS for?Fast X, coming in just under my?$9.36M?raw Thursday, but driving past my?$17.18M?Friday prediction for an Thurs+Fri total actual more than my?$26.54M?estimate. For a franchise on its tenth entry that is almost level with its immediate predecessor, budget withstanding, Universal will take what they can get.

For this holiday weekend, audiences are looking to dive back under the sea for Disney's latest remake with?The Little Mermaid.?Despite their usual mixed-to-positive reception, the Disney live-action remakes have proven over the last decade to be a go to for audiences, especially the 90s entries.??The Lion King, Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast?all made well over $1 billion and Disney is hoping this new one will be part of their world. With a stellar cast and a new take on the titular character, it is to be seen whether audiences are willing to be resold the same Disney story again or if the streaming-focused company in the post-Covid era has tampered their own reputation. Finding a comp for this title was surprisingly difficult due to a standard Thursday, but a abnormally large Friday, so we will be using?Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,?which also massively over-indexed in these theaters on a holiday weekend. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.

For Thursday, this mermaid is showing she already has strong fins. Growing day by day throughout the week, The Little Mermaid started off well and only continued to grow. With these numbers, TLM is looking at a?$5.01M?Thursday compared to Lightyear.??Things to note:?TLM had Wednesday previews adding around?$.5M.?Here's the thing, TLM will most likely double this due to the Friday skewed data, Anyway, for a family title, this is a very good start to a holiday weekend. Currently, TLM has a theater capacity of M:?10.37%?and EH:?12.49%.?As expected, these are much lower than BP:WK's capacities of M:?42.04%?and EH:?42.96%.?With Theater 1 almost equalling capacity at Theater 2, this hopefully signifies a strong walkup potential as this title is targeting families and more urban audiences. Since previews started at an early PM, do not be surprised about a stronger Thursday number for the total Friday. Yet, with strong growing sales and positive WOM, this is looking to be a long, healthy weekend for Disney and co incoming. Internet haters be damned!

For Friday, this is when things kick into gear. During the week, TLM had extremely strong growth for a title already at very high ticket sales. With sales like these, we're looking at a Marvel or Minions movie rather than a standard family title. Currently, TLM is looking at a raw?$23.68M?Friday compared to BP:WK. This is more in line with what the Disney remake should be making. At these sales, TLM has theater capacities of M:?33.44%?and EH:?34.42%.?Like Thursday, these capacities are almost equal as well as lacking behind BP:WK's M:?51.19%?and EH:?58.20%.?As a family title, which is prone to walk-ups, TLM can get a strong boost over BP:WK by still having around 2/3s of seats available. With much room for growth, at this rate, do not be surprised if news has this title go higher and higher throughout the weekend.

Overall, this will bring The Little Mermaid to a Wed+Th+F opening of?$29.19M. Remember, due to abnormal Thursday:Friday sales, my comps were off, giving a definitive lower than actual Thursday. If this is the lowest TLM can go, then just imagine how high it can get. If these predictions stick, which they won't, we are looking at an opening weekend of around?$84M. The?$200M?budget might throw a wrench in the success, but it's feeling like Disney will be proven once again that they don't need original stories when they can just make bank on the remakes.

I have taken some suggestions to help make this post better. Please comment if you have anymore!

TL;DR:

Wednesday:?$.5M

Thursday:?$5.01M

Friday:?$23.68M

Opening Day:?$29.19M