Lithuania: Living in Russia’s shadow

The second port of call on my Baltic trip is Vilnius in Lithuania, the largest of the three Baltic countries.

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Lithuania has a border with Russia (the Kaliningrad oblast, a Russian enclave) to the south-west, but its main concern is the 660km border that it shares with Belarus, a dangerous Russian puppet state that takes orders from Moscow. And it’s important to note that this isn’t just Lithuania’s border but also part of the EU’s external border, so security here is crucial to the EU as a whole.

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Just as has been the case with Finland, Lithuania has experienced weaponised migration, whereby large numbers of migrants, mostly from Iraq, are flown to the Belarussian capital Minsk and then taken by bus to what was then an open border with Lithuania, where they attempt to cross to claim asylum.

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This hybrid attack began in 2021 and led the Lithuanian government to empower its border guards to push back migrants into Belarus. It also led to the construction of a barrier with full border infrastructure, including cameras and ground sensors, along the entire length of the border with Belarus.

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I paid a visit to the Padvarionys border crossing point to see how it was working. This is one of only two crossing points that remain open between the two countries. There is a very high metal fence topped with concertina wire. Two years ago none of this existed. It became necessary following a stolen election in Belarus, which led to the imposition of sanctions, ultimately provoking weaponized migration.? We are of course also concerned about the exploitation of vulnerable migrants.

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The number of attempted crossings has fallen sharply since the construction of the barrier, but the problem remains: more than 450 attempted crossings have been thwarted this year. It’s vital that we in Ireland support Lithuania in its efforts to control this border, just as Lithuania and all of our other EU partners supported Ireland over the very different border issue we faced with Brexit.

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I also visited Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC), which was established last year to continually monitor threats to national security via a 24/7 situation centre, as well as managing crises and emergency response and coordinating efforts to mitigate national security threats.

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One of its recent projects was an analysis of the crisis preparedness of 14 hospitals in Lithuania’s 10 largest cities, assessing their ability to sustain operations for an extended emergency period of at least 30 days and up to 90 days. This involved considering issues such as generators, food-chain security, medicine and PPE stocks.

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Ireland and Lithuania have long enjoyed good relations. As a small, open economy on the periphery of Europe with a history of migration and occupation, it has a lot in common with us, and it often looks to Ireland as a model for successful economic growth.

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Two recent developments are worth mentioning. First, there was an agreement between Belarus and Russia to host tactical nuclear weapons on Belarussian soil, under Moscow’s control. Secondly, in May 2024 the Moscow Times reported that Russia intended to redraw its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland. Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Ingrida Simonyte, said her country would be seeking a joint EU and Nato response to any such move by Russia.

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I come away with a sense of just how severe the Russian threat to Lithuania is, and how important its Nato membership is.

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I was generously hosted and briefed on my visit by Simonas Satunas Satunas, Lithuania’s Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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Today, I move on to the final stage of my Baltic trip with a visit to Estonia.