Lithuania Election Watch: Opposition LSDP set to win Oct 13 general election, not to lack partners
Metodi Tzanov
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The opposition party Social Democrats LSDP is the likely winner of the regular Oct 13 general election, all opinion polls indicate, but it is unlikely to be able to form a majority on its own. Possible coalition partners are the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union LVZS, as well as the current junior ruling parties - the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party, but also the new, rather radical Nemuno Ausra party of the known for his antisemitic statements politician Remigijus Zemaitaitis. At the same time, a coalition with the senior ruling party Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrat TS-LKD is highly unlikely as such a possibility has been ruled out by the LSDP after TS-LKD called for compromises in order to avoid parties advocating anti-Western policies, i.e. leaving the EU and NATO, to come to power.
Yet, a potential coalition of LSDP with LVZS is uncertain as the latter objects joining such if LSDP nominates for premier Gintautas Paluckas, who has been convicted of corruption, instead of the party's chairperson and MEP Vilija Blinkeviciute. Note that President Gitanas Nauseda has been strongly in favour of Blinkeviciute becoming new premier, which she recently admitted as a possibility, but has also said that Paluckas would be also a good choice.
Small parties will play a decisive role in the new parliament and influence the new ruling coalition. The Freedom Party LP, which is now part of the ruling majority, has not hidden its aspiration to be part of a future democratic rainbow coalition in order to keep the Western orientation of Lithuania. The Liberal Movement, also part of the ruling coalition at present, is also potential partner, as it has said after the elections it would work only with pro-Western parties. The newly formed party Nemuno Ausra of Remigijus Zemaitaitis, who was expulsed from Freedom and Justice Party due to his antisemitic statements, vies for being a part of a coalition with LSDP, but has some untraditional ideas that may hinder such a cooperation. Indeed after initially admitting that the LSDP would cooperate with almost all parties after the elections, Blinkeviciute expressed concern over Zemaitaitis's latest statements.
Of course, another option is TS-LKD to form the future government if it performs much better in the elections than indicated by the latest opinion polls and outperforms the LSDP, the odds for which we consider close to zero, especially given recent scandals in which soem of its politicians we involved. Yet, even if winning the elections, which is little likely, it would need more partners than it has now as its support has fallen drastically after four years in the government, which will make such a ruling majority, respectively government, very unstable.
Overall, we do not expect the elections to result in major overhaul of economic, fiscal and foreign policy amid the persisting geopolitical uncertainties. We believe that, given the available so far election programmes, regardless of the election outcome, the future ruling majority will continue to pursue fiscal prudence along with even higher defence spending and will maintain the country's strong financial, humanitarian and military support for Ukraine until the aggressor Russia is defeated and peace is restored. Yet, there might be certain setback with regard to foreign policy should more radical parties are allowed to be part of the ruling coalition and the government, in our view.
MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES
Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrat party (TS-LKD, senior ruling, 49 seats)
The Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrat party (TS-LKD) is a right-wing, conservative party that tends to support a conservative fiscal policy and pro-market reforms. It is the senior ruling party (49 MPs), likely to be second in the elections, according to recent polls, but perform much worse than four years ago. The party is led by Gabrielius Landsbergis, who suggested that the mainstream parties should unite forces after the elections in order to avoid radical parties talking of Lithuania leaving the EU and NATO coming to power.
In its?election manifesto, the party first emphasises the need to defend - the state and its citizens, including by improving defence readiness amid the turbulent times, as well as to secure economic growth and strengthen the state. In the area of defence, the party wants to make Lithuania a pillar that would choke any aggressor by an effective defence system, creating modern, technologically-advanced defence industry, prepare LT strategy for military support to Ukraine, continue strengthen crisis management and prevention, secure reserve of critical resources. In the area of growth, TS-LKD identifies three main programme directions: to ensure educated, solidary, just, prosperous society with strengthening communities, responsible self-government; to continue the work of strengthening the new generation of Lithuania, responsibly, transparently, wisely renewing and giving more power to the public sector and an innovative, environmentally friendly economy; comprehensively exploit the synergy between increasing the state's defence potential and society's potential. In social policy, the party pledges to reduce poverty and income inequality, ensure favourable conditions for creating families and raising children, raise living standards for seniors. The party also pledges a growth-friendly fair, simple and competitive tax system, among others.
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS, main opposition, 17 seats)
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVZS) is the second largest party in the parliament and is considered one of the main representatives of the left wing politics. The LVZS is led by Ramunas Karbauskis, who, after the failure in the 2020 elections, resigned from his parliamentary seat and the party (along with the Labour Party) began to support various radical movements, which caused disagreements within party and its caucus. Disagreements had forced a split in the parliamentary group in 2021, and former PM Saulius Skvernelis set up the Union of Democrats For Lithuania. Thus, LVZS lost the position of opposition leader. Unsuccessful presidential candidate and lawyer Ignas Vegele has decided to participate in the general election with the LVZS; in case of success in elections, if the LVZS is in the majority, Vegele, who previously refused to lead LVZS slate, would be appointed Parliament's Speaker. MEP Veryga, who leads the party's slate, will reportedly be offered to become the prime minister.
In its?election programme, the party pledges to secure affordable own housing and financial security of families, to keep existing benefits for families, provide EUR 10,000 for each newborn, introduce preferential VAT rate for basic food products, ensure affordable and quality healthcare for older people, ensure adequate and sustainable pensions that will guarantee a dignified life after retirement and offer additional financial support programmes - especially for low-income seniors. In security and defence, the party pledges the country to remain in EU and NATO, develop defence infrastructure, continue regional cooperation. The party pledges to ensure country's energy independence, return the control over energy costs to the state by nationalising the Ignitis group and to limit the unjustified increase in energy prices; it plans to merge the energy ministry with the economy and innovation ministry. In the economic sphere, the party wants to establish a state bank, strengthen support for SMEs and promote innovation, not to tax funds intended for investments and provide benefits to those who invest EUR 30mn and create 50 or more jobs, among others.
Union of Democrats 'For Lithuania' of ex-PM Skvernelis (DSVL, opposition, 16 seats)
The Union of Democrats 'For Lithuania' was formed by defectors from the LVZS back in 2022 and is led by ex-PM Saulius Skvernelis. The party is moderately socially conservative. Most of the party's members are former members of the LVZS. The party's name 'For Lithuania' is a reference to the final line of the national anthem of Lithuania. Immediately after foundation, DSVL became one of the leading parties in popularity polls, while the LVZS and the Labour Party both declined. Over time, its support plateaued and slightly declined due to competition with the opposition LSDP; yet, opinion polls indicate it will end third or fourth in the elections.
In its?election programme, DSVL pledges to radically reduce the number of the poor people, expand basic universal income, secure more socially fair wages for everyone by equating the non-taxable amount of income to the minimum monthly wage, extending its coverage above the average income, and taxing the highest income at progressive 23%, 25%, and 32% PIT rates. The party is also to establish a SODRA-based state accumulative pension fund that will compete with the currently existing private funds. The party wants to make it possible for everyone to suspend the contributions of the second pension pillar for indefinite time, reduce property taxes of pension funds, improve the procedure for withdrawing funds, restore the dependence of the amount of pensions on length of service. DSVL will ensure a real and effective family policy - index the child's money faster; compensate part of the mortgage interest upon birth of a child or adoption; implement a targeted housing policy aimed at supporting young families and strengthening regions; pay more attention to families raising children with disabilities and families of single parents. The party pledges to establish a national housing development fund that will coordinate the development of social and municipal housing. It will encourage employers to create jobs for seniors, apply more favourable tax policies, and reduce payroll taxes for working seniors and additionally encourage the employment of LT unemployed. It pledges to create a social microcredit financial support system aimed at the most vulnerable. The party supports the introduction of four-day working week and wants to shorten the maximum number of working hours for shift workers. In the area of national security and foreign policy, DSVL says that security issues will be prioritised, including adequate and timely preparation for possible direct military aggression, reliable borders protection, fight against organised crime and illegal migration, protection against energy supply disruptions. The party concurs that the deployment of the German brigade in Lithuania is an absolute priority and a guarantee of the country's security. The party is to return the leadership in setting the most important foreign and defence policy goals to the head of state so that the president is no longer held hostage of the government. DSVL pledges to speed up the planned acquisitions of weapons, equipment and machinery by the Lithuanian Armed Forces, create a unified airspace protection together with other Baltic states and Poland, ensure suitable conditions for the development of the defence industry. The party pledges Lithuania to continue to provide all kinds of support to Ukraine necessary to defeat Russia's aggression.
Lithuania Social Democratic Party (LSDP, opposition, 14 seats)
The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) is likely to win the elections with strong lead on the runner-up, according to all recent polls. At the 2020 elections, the party achieved worse results than expected, which is why its then leader Gintautas Paluckas resigned in 2021. Vilija Blinkeviciute was elected as the new leader and the party's support nearly doubled thanks to her personal popularity. However, the party has since focused most on criticism of the TS-LKD and progressive economic proposals over social justice and social reforms. Blinkeviciute is leading the party's slate and has concurred she would become PM candidate if the party won the elections, something President Gitanas Nauseda has been strong advocate of for months.
In its?election programme, the LSDP pledges to improve conditions for starting family by reducing taxes for families with children via an additional tax-free amount of income, facilitating conditions for purchasing a home, triple the basket of non-formal education for children, apply the "fast corridor" principle for children's health checks. The party is to curb the impact of prices on people's lives by increasing their incomes via ensuring increase of wages in public and private sectors; linking the tax-free income with the minimum wage so that people with low and middle incomes will earn more; reorganise the second pension system pillar - enabling people to halt contributions and withdraw of accumulated money; accelerating pension indexation to take into account inflation; introducing VAT relief to food products; by increasing monetary social support so that it meets the minimum consumption needs of one person. In order to protect the country and citizens from external threats, the party pledges support to Ukraine until its victory, supports the establishment of German brigade, pledges the Lithuanian national division to reach full operational capacity, cooperation with NATO partners, strengthening collective defence capabilities, the development of national defence industry. LSDP pledges reform in the healthcare system to reduce waiting times (including by expanding mandatory health insurance payers base and increasing state contributions, higher funding to reimburse medicines, raise nurses' wages), raising quality of education (including by higher scholarships, support of dormitories construction, introducing universal non-formal education), improve condition of roads, curb energy prices and protect consumer rights from manipulation of service prices by energy companies, enable economic growth by promoting national business, creating jobs and attracting workers, among others.
Liberal Movement (LS, junior ruling, 13 seats)
The party was founded in 2006 by dissident members of the Liberal and Centre Union that were discontent with Arturas Zuokas's leadership. In 2020 general election the party managed to get 7% of votes and joined coalition with the TS-LKD and the Freedom Party. It is led by Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen, incumbent Parliament's Speaker, since 2019. It is socially and economically liberal, and ran on a platform of cutting taxation and legalising gender-neutral partnerships during the 2020 general election; it is considered to be more moderate than the Freedom Party. It supports the European Green Deal, strengthening the Common Security and Defence Policy and wider adoption of qualified majority in the Council of the EU.
In its?election programme, with regard to economic policy, the party pledges predictable tax policy, improving tax collection, review of state expenditures and priorities for their use, increasing defence spending on basis of sustainable defence financing model, development of national defence policy as priority, encourage people to lend more to state, review restrictions of firms, observe fiscal discipline and balanced spending, not prioritise minimum wage growth but encourage average wage growth, strengthen second and third pension pillars, review tax benefits and cancel inefficient ones, among others. With regard to foreign policy and national security, the party pledges firm anchoring in EU and NATO, supports EU enlargement (especially of Ukraine and Moldova), to support Ukraine until victory, including via providing all possible military, economic, political and humanitarian support, as well as continue reconstruction activities in Ukraine, work for reduction of EU's dependence on Russia and weaken latter's economic potential and ability to finance the war economy, support tough sanctions against Russia until it withdraws its troops from Ukraine, increase defence budget to purchase more weapons and train more soldiers, ensure sustainable defence financing model, among others.
Freedom Party (LP, junior ruling, 10 seats)
The Freedom Party was formed in 2019 and led by former Liberal Movement member Ausrine Armonaite, incumbent economy minister. The Freedom Party is socially liberal and supports legalisation of same-sex marriage and recreational marijuana, as well as strengthening of transgender rights. At the same time, it is extremely economically liberal and advocates for pro-business policies such as cutting taxes and loosening the labour code. It supports European integration and recognising the statehood of Taiwan as a country separate from the People's Republic of China, and is strongly opposed to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Within the TS-LKD-led government, it criticised its coalition partners for insufficient adherence to progressivism, as well as their left-wing tax policy. According to recent polls, it may not make it to the parliament.
In its?election programme, LP pledges to strengthen the middle class by encouraging those who work and create, ensuring greater availability of own housing for families, providing accessible healthcare without queues, building new kindergartens and schools. The party wants to create opportunities for innovation and business, defend human rights (including via the adoption of the Civil Union Law, the ratification of the Istanbul Convention and the implementation of violence against women), provide leadership in defence by increasing investments in defence to 4% of GDP, invest in modern education. The party will strive for the growth of the defence industry and the faster transfer of German soldiers to Lithuania, and will support Ukraine's struggle for freedom.
Lithuanian Regions Party (LRP, opposition, 9 seats)
The Lithuanian Regions Party was founded in 2018 as the Social Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania (LSDDP) following a split of members from LSDP and also joined by former members of the Labour Party after the LSDP's decision to exit a coalition government with the LVZS in 2017. It supports decentralisation of the political system, a social market economy, and a stronger social safety net but at the same time supports the formation of additional free economic zones in poorer Lithuanian regions. It opposes further European integration. The Regions Party is a supporter of the right-wing, anti-LGBT, and traditionalist Lithuanian Family Movement, and participates in their protests and demonstrations. It is unlikely to enter the parliament this autumn.
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Nemuno Ausra (NA, opposition, 3 seats)
Formed in November 2023, Nemuno Ausra, which is considered centre-left and very populist party, is led by the unsuccessful presidential candidate Remigijus Zemaitaitis after his expulsion from Freedom and Justice party due to his antisemitic statements. Its popularity increased strongly after the 2024 presidential election. The party was joined by two MPs who defected from the LVZS and the Labour Party in June 2024, increasing its representation in the Seimas to three seats. It proposes a creation of a state-bank and a road fund, as well as nationalisation of shares of state-owned companies, preventing private share ownership of state enterprises. The party also advocates tax breaks for large families, pensions reform, and pledges to not increase consumption tax. It seeks a coalition with LSDP and ruled out coalition with conservative parties.
In its?election programme, the party pledges to develop financial incentives for families purchasing their first home, apply individual income tax benefits to families raising three or more children, equalise the non-taxable amount of income with the minimum monthly salary, enable people to withdraw from second pension pillar, establish state bank, introduce two-year moratorium on tax changes, financial incentives for the development of SMEs in the regions, delist Ignitis shares making it possible for the state to buy them out and review activities of other energy-related companies in order to control electricity and gas prices, make public the lists of all persons who cooperated with the KGB, secure that defence is not funded at the expense of vulnerable, socially excluded people by raising consumption taxes.
Coalition of Peace (TK)
It comprises the Labour Party DP, the Lithuanian Christian Democracy Party LKDP and the Samogitian Party ZP.
- Labour Party (DP, non-affiliated, 2 seats)
The Labour Party DP, which has some chance to enter the parliament, was established by controversial Russian-born millionaire Viktor Uspaskich in 2003, who was investigated for tax fraud and his party for income violations in 2006, which resulted in a long-running criminal procedure delayed several times because every time Uspaskich was charged he either was joining the Lithuanian parliament or the European Parliament, though both institutions eventually lifted his immunity.
DP was considered to be one of the main left-wing parties in Lithuania, together with the LSDP, however with unclear ideological orientation. It describes itself as a party of the centre open to everyone. The party is opposed to austerity policies and is known for its ambitious plans of social support; its populism revolves around mobilising dissatisfaction with established politicians for neglecting the poor social groups. During electoral campaigns, it generally advertises itself by promising increases to pensions and minimum wages, often beyond the possibilities. The Labour Party embraced anti-migrant rhetoric with the party's leader Valentinas Mazuronis calling for Lithuania to block the distribution of refugees among EU member states. The party focuses on protecting and improving workers' rights but also supports improving business conditions and boosting private investment, especially in the rural regions.
- Lithuanian Christian Democracy Party (LKDP, 1 seat)
Lithuanian Christian Democracy Party was established in 2003. It first acquired a member of the Seimas in 2024, when Mindaugas Puidokas, MP from the Labour Party, joined the party and was elected as its chairperson. In its platform, the party ascribes itself to Christian democracy and Catholic social teaching; according to the party, Lithuania has been taken over by "leftist political powers" which promote "gender ideology". After Puidokas's takeover of the party, its rhetoric has been described as supportive of Russia and peddling disinformation and conspiracy theories.
- Samogitian Party ZP
The Samogitian Party is a minor ethnic-regionalist autonomist party of Lithuania's Samogitian minority founded in 2009. The Samogitian Party wants Samogitia to be established as an autonomous region above the municipalities of Lithuania - in this region, Samogitian language would have official status and be protected, and Samogitians would have the right to declare their ethnic nationality. As this would, de facto, transform Lithuania into a federal state, the party struggled with registration in the justice ministry as this was interpreted as refusing to recognise the territorial integrity of the state.
Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania - Christian Families Alliance (LLRA-KSS, opposition, 2 seats)
The Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania - Christian Families Alliance is a political party that positions itself as Christian-democratic. It was established in 1994 from the political wing of the Association of Poles in Lithuania. The party's primary objective is not ideological, but the protection and enhancement of the rights of the Polish minority, who account for 7% of the population. LLRA-KSS mainly aims to restore the land seized from Poles by the Soviet government, improvement of the education system and allowing the use of the Polish language in schools, and giving official recognition to the Polish orthography of names. It supports a more influential political role for the Roman Catholic Church, mandatory religious education in schools, and a reduction in the number of lawmakers from 141 to 101 coupled to an increase in the number of local councillors. Since 2005, it unsuccessfully tried to submit bills to penalise abortion.
LLRA's leader Valdemar Tomaszewski was considered to be a pro-Russian, since he had condemned the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine and had been seen wearing the Ribbon of Saint George, a symbol strongly associated with Russian nationalism and support for Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Following the beginning of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Tomaszewski condemned Russia's actions and co-authored a motion in the European Parliament in support of Ukraine.
In its?election programme, the party pledges to implement effective policy of strengthening the family, strengthen housing policy for families, introducing principle of fiscal solidarity - a tax of EUR 1 for those receiving minimum wage, raising pensions to the EU average and indexing them in line with changes in the size of the average wage, providing seniors with voucher of EUR 400, taxing banks, large retail chains and establishment of state bank, simpler and more effective tax collection, more support for SMEs, greater redistribution of budget funds for local governments, education, culture, childcare and care for the disabled, raising benefits for each child to EUR 200 per month, 5% VAT on food, minimum wage of EUR 1,500, free medicines for people older than 70 years, reducing the number of MPs from 141 to 101.
Overall, the election programmes give many promises without explaining in a greater detail how they would be fulfilled and more importantly, how they would be financed. PM candidates
There are two main candidates for future Prime Minister. These are LSDP head and MEP Vilija Blinkeviciute, who has been initially reluctant to this end but eventually admitted she would take responsibility if the LSDP won the election, and TS-LKD member and incumbent PM Ingrida Simonyte. Note that President Gitanas Nauseda has expressed firm support for Blinkeviciute as potential new premier. If she eventually refuses, LSDP plans to nominate the second on its slate - Gintautas Paluckas, who had been convicted of corruption - Nauseda is also in favour of such a nomination. However, if Paluckas is nominated as premier, the LSDP may lose a potential coalition partner - LVZS. As the government's and Simonyte's rating has fallen much in the last years, the nomination of Simonyte to the post may have negative impact on the future government, in our view. Democrats for Lithuania will nominate their head and ex-PM Skvernelis for premier again.
According to July Spinter poll, 15% of Lithuanians consider Simonyte the best fit politician to lead the government, down from 15.1% in June, Nemuno Ausra party leader Zemaitaitis became second on 9.4% (8.4% in June), while Blinkeviciute, who was leading the ranking for months, slid to the third spot on 7.9% (9.1% in June). In Baltijos Tyrimai poll, Blinkeviciute and Democrats for Lithuania head Skvernelis are most often seen in the position of prime minister (15.9% share this view), Zemaitaitis is ranked third on 12.3%, while Simonyte is only fourth on 12%.
OPINION POLLS
About 6 parties are expected to enter the next parliament by crossing the 5% threshold. Of the currently ruling parties, only TS-LKD for certain and possibly also the Liberal Movement are to enter the parliament, with the former however to be only second political force way behind the LSDP. LVZS is to be third and Democrats for Lithuania - fourth. Radical Nemuno Ausra is to be fifth with support quite close to those of the third and fourth strongest parties - some polls indicated that it may even outperform TS-LKD. Still, the share of the undecided voters remains quite high, meaning that much can change in the last month ahead of the elections as a number of televised debates are yet to take place and the election campaign is yet to start.
LEGISLATIVE BACKGROUND
Lithuania has a 141-seat parliament (Seimas) elected for a four-year terms through a mixed electoral system. Of the MPs, 71 are elected in single-seat constituencies and the remaining 70 MPs are elected through proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The MPs in the 71 constituencies are elected by a majority vote, with a runoff, held within 15 days, expected to take place on Oct 27, where needed. Out of the remaining 70 lawmakers, elected on a proportional basis, candidates take the seats allocated to their parties based on the lists submitted before the elections and adjusted by preference votes given by voters. The threshold to enter parliament is 5% for a single party and 7% for multi-party electoral lists.
After passing amendment of Constitution in April 2022, in order to be eligible for election, candidates must be at least 21 years old on the election day (25 years before the change), not under allegiance to a foreign state and permanently reside in Lithuania. Persons serving or due to serve a sentence imposed by the court 65 days before the election are not eligible. Also, judges, citizens performing military service, and servicemen of professional military service and officials of statutory institutions and establishments may not stand for election. In addition, a person who has been removed from office through impeachment may be elected after 10 year period after impeachment. There are 2.4mn eligible voters. The Electoral Code, adopted in June 2022, replaced various elections' acts and introduced several changes to the parliamentary elections - firstly, it gave possibility to establish more than one worldwide constituency, secondly, it removed a ban of political parties' agitation on Saturdays (e.g. one day prior to the election).
The polling stations will be open from 07:00 AM local time to 20:00 PM local time on Oct 13. The Central Electoral Commission VRK shall announce the final election results after investigating all possible complaints and establishing all election results in the constituencies, but not later than seven days after election day. Exit polls will be released immediately after voting ends. Altogether 17 parties and movements, and one coalition are running in the general election - altogether some 1,769 individuals intend to take part in the election campaign, whereas 1,112 applications have been submitted by men and 657 by women.