Who's getting the 25% of $35b online video revenue China is leaving on the table & 9 other things I can't wait to hear about this week
1. Asia Pacific online video revenue will be US$35 billion by 2021. China will take 75% of that, according to Media Partners Asia (MPA), the organisers of the Asia Pacific Video Operators Summit (APOS) in Bali this week. The question is who grabs the remaining 25%? Can pay-TV players in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia become the big aggregations and move from set-top boxes to apps, like PCCW or the Koreans? Who will be the gatekeepers of Southeast Asia's fledgling digital ecosystem? Yes, SVOD is only a US$200 million pie in Southeast Asia, says MPA, but the online video ad pie will be almost 4x that. How will telcos, content owners and pay-TV operators converge to grab a meaningful share of digital consumer spend and the ad dollars that YouTube and Facebook now control? In short, how are traditional pay-TV operators in Southeast Asia going to (or going to try to) get their sex appeal back... or are they going to let shiny and gorgeous SVOD people continue to make them look like stiff and creaky newbies at the back of the yoga class struggling with their down dogs.
2. What prophet of streaming, Reed Hastings, is going to say about Netflix's performance in Asia so far. Especially China (which even uber-ballsy Netflix didn't have the cojones to include in its global roll out) and Korea, where Netflix seems to have gotten up the noses of the great and the powerful. The reason/s? Who knows the full story, but likely there's an element of "Really? You think you can just arrive without eating strategic kimchi with the elders? Just who do you think you are?". As anyone who has been in Asia for 25 minutes knows, that could end badly for Netflix. Netflix's APOS double-act has content head Ted Sarandos on stage too, which means, hopefully, insights into the streamer's co-production plans for Asia. That could be very good news for producers. For all that I don't know and want to find out about Netflix in our part of the world, of one thing I am absolutely sure: That opening session at 8.30am on Wednesday is going to be standing-room only.
3. What comes after paying lip service to content as a "king", "queen", "yada yada" among those who have been taught to say nice things about content because it's a product they can sell, much like used cars, skin creams and vacuum cleaners? This year, maybe more than any other year, there's a real dawning realisation, deeper than ever before, that content is the "she who must be obeyed". What makes great content? A million things that can be put on a spread sheet and a zillion things that can't. The magic mix? A moving target. The questions some of the best in the business are asking: Where does creativity live? Who has it? How do you manage it and them? What do most creative people care about most? What do they need to be the best?
4. VR. And not just because every person needs an alternative reality when this one doesn't work so well anymore. Three companies have set up demos – Lytro, Jaunt and Vrse – in Bali. A quick conversation at the opening of IcebergX's new studio in Singapore last Friday night went something like this: "OMG, you're seeing Lytro. I'm so jealous. They have a camera that costs about half a million dollars. It's amazing". So now I know. Virtual reality is part of a whole new story-telling world. As Keiko Bang showed delegates at last year's ContentAsia Summit in Singapore, there is some jaw-dropping interactive/360 story-telling going on online. And, by all accounts, that ain't the half of it. How much progress is being made in creating all-round stories that aren't in fish tanks or game parks? What's involved in retraining to shoot/edit? Don't know, but I'm really looking forward to finding out.
5. How much of the talk about "digital" will be about restructuring businesses and cultures for the the connected, innovative, efficient universe that digital technology makes possible? Who will be mixing up their "digital" strategy with their social media tactics? Who still sees "digital" as separate from their business? Honestly, I don't think MPA executive director Vivek Couto would let anyone on stage who did any such thing. But I'm still going to be on high alert. We need real conversation about evolving businesses, not performance stats of a Facebook campaign.
6. In the hot-and-cold running line up of Asia's video leaders, I want to know: (1) How China Media Capital head Li Ruigang is going to execute on the pile of money he’s pouring into sports, VR, TV production, Hong Kong's TVB and, in the future, Southeast Asia?; (2) What else Japanese broadcaster Nippon TV has in store as it takes its domestic might abroad; (3) Who else is joining Mark Britt's team at iFlix and what's next for the year-old start-up that is starting to look increasingly grown-up; (4) What PCCW Media head Janice Lee's update is on Viu, which brought me Korean blockbuster "Decendants of the Sun" with English subtitles as soon as it was aired in Korea and for which I am eternally grateful; (5) and all about LeEco's free-spending approach to Hong Kong.
7. U.S. chiefs' views on Asia and how these might play out. I don't think for a minute that any of them will break completely free from their days at the Rottweiler School of Media Training. But I also think they know that APOS is not the place to speak a lot and say nothing – and get away with it. Here's what I'm watching: What will Kevin Mayer, The Walt Disney Company's SEVP/Chief Strategy Officer, convince Bob Iger to buy next and will it be in Asia? Maybe even Southeast Asia? Mayer, in case you don't already know, was behind Disney’s acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Club Penguin and Maker Studios. What does Jeffrey Katzenberg, DreamWorks Animation's CEO, Co-Founder & Director, think is the future of U.S. media, what’s next for his partnership with Netflix, and how is he looking at growth in China and Southeast Asia.
8. Short-form content and ways it is being monetised. Homework: Have a look at what Endemol Beyond is doing, not just with ICON, which has a low-key presence in Asia already with more and bigger coming, but also with channels like female-centric Pretty Upfront in the U.K. sponsored by Benefit.
9. All things Vice. I suspect I won't be the only one hanging onto every Shane Smith word hoping to find out, among other things, how he plans to adapt Vice's no-hold-barred, say-what-you-really-think style for Asia.
10. And, finally, what is LYD? I have the start of an answer. LYD is Joon Lee's new company. In case you haven't already heard, confirmed reports of Lee's decision to join Arthur Bastings at Discovery were greatly overstated. Lee, formerly Fox Networks Group's executive vice president for North Asia and head of original productions for Mainland China, isn't disclosing exactly what he'll be doing – yet. It looks like, for now at least, whatever it is will be based in Korea. Meanwhile, the Korean contingent in Bali for APOS face two key questions: How will you keep on reinventing yourselves and what can we learn from you?
What do I think my chances of success in any/all the above are? Pretty good, but I won't know for sure until Friday. Ask me then.
Meawhile, for everyone going to APOS, safe travels and have a great week. To the MPA team, congratulations on a stellar line up. And a reminder that ContentAsia has running commentary, news, pictures and highlights at www.contentasia.tv, Facebook (www.facebook.com/contentasia), Twitter (@contentasia) and Instagram (contentasia.tv). We also have our usual market dailies on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. If you want to join our mailing list, email [email protected] Our hashtag for APOS is #CAatAPOS. MPA's hashtag for the event is #mpaapos.