The Liscio Line -- Fear Factor

Dear colleagues,

The stock market’s ebullience since Friday’s disappointing jobs report has been nothing short of magnificent. Jaded stock market veterans will joke that we’re witnessing a ‘relief rally’ due to the news being bad enough to open the door for a fourth round of quantitative easing. The market’s message: Less is never more when it comes to propping up risky asset prices. That is, until the market loses faith in central bankers’ divine powers to will prices higher. It’s safe to say that that day of reckoning has yet to arrive, at least for the Bernanke chapter of too low for too long. The one game changer, we all know, is recession. Faltering job growth tends to be the caboose on the train of an economy veering towards contraction. A slowdown in trade precedes, which we’ve seen. Car sales, goosed by the lax lending standards, aside, weekly retail sales data also suggest that the consumer is feeling the pinch of stubbornly low wage growth.

Will job growth continue to slow? Will the Fed continue to insist it will raise interest rates this year in the face of a stuttering job market given their inflation measures demand they stand pat? All interesting questions, no doubt. But every cycle is unique. And game changers are difficult to identify in advance. What we do know is that falling commodities prices are ravaging global wage growth – it’s not just a North Dakota and Texas problem. Your thoughts and reflections on what’s to come are, as always, most appreciated. Please read on:

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/10/fear-factor-.html

For this week’s new readers who were privileged to attend Great Ideas' Best Ideas Foundation with me this week, please see below for my full archive. Being in Michael J. Fox’s presence at the event was indeed a humbling experience and we are all better off for it.

Best,

Danielle

Written Commentary Archive

Tiny Bubbles

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/09/tiny-bubbles.html

Illiquid Plumber

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/fed_watch/

Help Wanted: Fearless & Grounded Central Banker

https://tlrii.typepad.com/

Angels Manning Heaven’s Trading Floors

https://www.interdependence.org/blog/angels-manning-heavens-trading-floors/

Trumped Towers

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/09/trumped-towers.html

Sunset at the Bakken Club

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/08/sunset-at-the-bakken-club.html

Drafting the Dodge – A Mother’s Battle Plan to Combat the Currency War

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/08/drafting-the-dodge-a-mothers-battle-plan-to-combat-the-currency-wars.html

You Do the Math

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/08/you-do-the-math.html

You’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

https://tlrii.typepad.com/

Ladies Don’t Dance on Graves

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/ladies-dont-dance-on-graves.html

The Seven Dollar Cantaloupe

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/the-seven-dollar-cantaloupe.html

What if Charlie Munger is Right?

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/what-if-charlie-munger-is-right.html

The Smell of Dry Powder in the Morning

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/-the-smell-of-dry-powder-in-the-morning.html

Rational Exuberance?

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/rational-exuberance.html

The Sin of Commission

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/06/the-sin-of-commission.html

The Great Abdication

https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/06/something-new-at-the-liscio-report.html