Liquidity Energy Morning Report 7/21/17
Oil is lower in what we see as profit-taking from the recent run up, but news is sparse.
OPEC & non-OPEC ministers will meet on Monday to assess compliance.
Reuters carries two articles that paint a positive picture for product. Thursday, European diesel refining margins hit their highest level since November; a result of a problem at a Greek refinery, a longer than expected maintenance at a German refinery, and less imports from the U.S. (product flowing more to Latin America).
In the 4 weeks, to July 14th, the U S was a net exporter of gasoline, compared to the past 2 years when net imports totaled 450,000 and 411,000 bpd. The latest EIA data shows exports to be down 240,000 bpd, and exports up 230,000 bpd from a year ago.
Technically, the energies are signaling peaking action, with momentum swinging to lower pricing RB has support at 15781-90 then 15623-34. Resistance lies at 16094-16108 (the high is 16125), then resistance is seen at 16197-16205.
ULSD has its support at 15248-59 (tested with a low of 15238), then at 15071-83. Resistance comes in at 15452-64 then 15525-36 (the high is 15526).
WTI had been up 16 out of 19 sessions to Wednesday. There is no rollover gap from the expiration of the August contract yesterday. September WTI futures have support at 4614-18 then 4580-81, with resistance at 4708-10 (the high is 4721) then at 4754-55.
NG is down about 3 cts after yesterday's disappointing price action despite, a somewhat bullish
EIA number. The build was 28 bcf, which was a few bcf below expectations, yet the futures registered a key reversal to the downside.
Today the futures tested the DC mid bollinger band on the the low at 3.003, support below is seen at 2.988-2.989, then good support comes in at 2.946-2.949.
Resistance above is seen at 3.050-53, then near the 100 day moving average at 3.080-3.083. In as much as DC momentum still is positive, a settle below 3.00 will be negative.
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