No Limits to Trade or Peace
Xi-Putin 4 hour meet, Putin in People's Daily, Lula meets Xi, China-Russia trade surges, Ukraine-no China lethal aid, US bank crisis good for China, Hun Sen on nuclear war and military exercises
UPDATE:?President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow is designed to strengthen trade and bilateral relations and advance the peace process for Ukraine. The Entente between China and Russia has stabilised Eurasia from China’s Pacific coast to the Caspian and Black Seas. For the first time in modern history the entirety of Central Asia from Afghanistan to the Black Sea is Pacific. Moreover, the Chinese brokered rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia has signalled a greater peace dividend across West Asia and North Africa - Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Ethiopia and Somalia.?
While cheap energy and vibrant economic growth proceeds across Asia, the EU and US remain mired in economic turbulence, industrial decline and social upheavals. The spillover from the Ukraine crisis is reshaping the political dynamics of Europe, exposing the limits of NATO and constraining US influence. The strengthening of China-Russia ties places greater limits on US influence across Eurasia forcing it to primarily operate in the maritime domain. Moreover, Russian advances in Ukraine and waning financial and material support from the US and EU indicate that a negotiated settlement is inevitable.?
China’s 12 point position paper and intensive peace diplomacy is backed with its vast trade relationships and a reputation for doing what it says it will do. In Moscow today, the Global Security Initiative of Xi Jinping is likely to receive greater impetus and be put to Visiting Brazilian President Lula in Beijing this week to meet Xi Jinping.
Xi - Putin in Moscow
MOSCOW - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the Kremlin. The two presidents had an in-depth and candid exchange on China-Russia relations and issues of mutual interest. He noted that Russia will hold the presidential election next year, and under Putin's strong leadership, Russia has made good progress in development and rejuvenation. Xi said he is confident that the Russian people will continue to give firm support to Putin.
Xi stressed that there is a profound historical logic for China-Russia relationship to reach where it is today. China is firm in keeping to the general direction of strengthening strategic coordination
The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on the Ukraine issue.
Xi stressed that, on the Ukraine issue, voices for peace and rationality are building. Most countries support easing tensions, stand for peace talks, and are against adding fuel to the fire. A review of history shows that conflicts in the end have to be settled through dialogue and negotiation.
China released a document on its position on the Ukraine crisis, advocating the political settlement of the crisis and rejecting the Cold War mentality and unilateral sanctions, said Xi.
China believes that the more difficulties there are, the greater the need to keep space for peace. The more acute the problem is, the more important it is not to give up efforts for dialogue. China will continue to play a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Ukraine issue, said Xi.
Read more?here.
Vladimir Putin’s Article for?People’s Daily Newspaper, Russia and?China: A?Future-Bound Partnership
Excerpts:
We have reached an?unprecedented level of?trust in?our political dialogue, our strategic cooperation has become truly comprehensive in?nature and?is standing on?the?brink of?a?new era. Our priorities include trade and?economic partnership. In?2022, our bilateral trade, which had already been considerable by?the?time, doubled to?reach USD 185?billion. This is a?new record. It is noteworthy that the?share of?settlements in?national currencies in?our mutual trade is growing, further strengthening the?sovereignty of?our relations.?
The Power of?Siberia Russian-Chinese gas pipeline has become the?”deal of?the?century“ for?its scale. The?supplies of?Russian oil and?coal have increased significantly. Our specialists are involved in?building new nuclear power units in?China, while Chinese companies actively engage in?LNG projects; our industrial and?agricultural cooperation is growing stronger. Together we explore outer space and?develop new technologies.
Last year our border regions were connected by?two new bridge crossings over the?Amur river, which has been a?”river of?friendship“ since time immemorial. Amidst the?”waves and?winds“ that sweep the?planet, we closely cooperate in?international affairs and?effectively coordinate our foreign policy positions, counter common threats, and?respond to?current challenges, standing shoulder to?shoulder as?a?”rock amid a?fast flowing stream.“ We actively promote democratic multilateral structures such as?the?SCOand?BRICS, which become more and?more authoritative and?influential and?attract new partners and?friends. The?work aimed at?coordinating the?development of?the?Eurasian Economic Union?with the?One Belt, One Road Initiative also goes in?this vein.
Our countries, together with like-minded actors, have consistently advocated the?shaping of?a?more just multipolar world order based on?international law rather than certain ”rules“ serving the?needs of?the?”golden billion.“ Russia and?China have consistently worked to?create an?equitable, open and?inclusive regional and?global security system that is not directed against third countries. In?this regard, we note the?constructive role of?China's Global Security Initiative, which is in?line with the?Russian approaches in?this area.
We can feel the?geopolitical landscape in?the?outside world change dramatically. Sticking more stubbornly than ever to?its obsolete dogmata and?vanishing dominance, the?”Collective West“ is gambling on?the?fates of?entire states and?peoples. The?US's policy of?simultaneously deterring Russia and?China, as?well as?all those who do not bend to?the?American dictation, is getting ever more fierce and?aggressive. The?international security and?cooperation architecture is being dismantled. Russia has been labelled an?”immediate threat“ and?China a?”strategic competitor.“
Russia is open to?the?political and?diplomatic resolution of?the?Ukraine crisis. It was not Russia who broke off the?peace talks back in?April 2022. The?future of?the?peace process depends solely on?the?will to?engage in?a?meaningful discussion taking into account current geopolitical realities. Unfortunately, the?ultimatum nature of?requirements placed on?Russia shows that their authors are detached from these realities and?lack interest in?finding a?solution to?the?situation.
The?crisis in?Ukraine, which was provoked and?is being diligently fuelled by?the?West, is the?most striking, yet not the?only, manifestation of?its desire to?retain its international dominance and?preserve the?unipolar world order. It is crystal clear that NATO is striving for?a?global reach of?activities and?seeking to?penetrate the?Asia-Pacific. It obvious that there are forces persistently working to?split the?common Eurasian space into a?network of?”exclusive clubs“ and?military blocs that would serve to?contain our countries' development and?harm their interests. This won't work.
In?fact, today, the?Russia-China relations serve as?the?cornerstone of?regional and?global stability, driving the?economic growth and?securing the?positive agenda in?international affairs. They provide an?example of?harmonious and?constructive cooperation between major powers.
Read full article?here.
Can Lula walk the tightrope between Washington and Beijing?
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit China this week accompanied by a delegation of 240 business representatives. Boosting the economic partnership with China will be a priority for Lula as he visits his nation’s largest trading partner that imported US$89.4 billion in 2022 mostly in soy and iron ore which added a surplus of US$28.7 billion to Brazil’s coffers. Another important item on the?agenda?includes the appointment of former President Dilma Rousseff as the new BRICS Bank president.
Meanwhile Lula’s visit follows on the Xi-Putin summit in Moscow and moves to progress peace in Ukraine. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has sought to mediate an end to the conflict as he seeks to reinsert Brazil in the global political stage. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said Moscow is studying Lula’s proposal to end the conflict as it continues to assess the situation in Ukraine.
The idea being floated by the Brazilian president is to create of a group of countries, possibly including India, China and Indonesia, to mediate peace talks between the nations as war fatigue starts to grip parts of the world.
China-Russia Trade Surging
China-Russia trade is expected to grow at a rapid pace in the years ahead. In the first two months of 2023, trade surged 36.4 percent year-on-year to 232.5 billion yuan (US$33.8 billion), indicating continuous and strong growth momentum in bilateral economic cooperation.
China has been Russia's top trading partner for 13 consecutive years as of the end of 2022 and both are consolidating the trade of bulk commodities, including energy and minerals, and expanding new growth points in the digital economy, biomedicine, cross-border e-commerce and trade in services during this period. Despite challenges ranging from waning global demand for goods to geoeconomic shocks, China-Russia trade surged 29.3 percent year-on-year to $190.27 billion in 2022, according to customs statistics.
Russia has announced plans to build special economic zones in the Far East, which will spur the country's mineral and agricultural exports to China." The Heihe-Blagoveshchensk cross-border highway bridge over the Heilong River opened to traffic in June. The new channel, a milestone in infrastructure connectivity, has connected China's northeastern provinces and Russia's Far East amid flourishing economic and trade cooperation between the neighbors.
Thanks to the enhanced coordination and cooperation within multilateral frameworks, China and Russia have also notably heightened the synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union in recent years, said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the China Association of Policy Science's Economic Policy Commission in Beijing.
Read more?here.
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Ukraine's military intelligence says no evidence of China supplying Russia with weaponry
Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate has no evidence of China providing Russia with weapons, the directorate's spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on March 20.?According to Yusov, as?cited?by the Ukrinform news outlet, Russia has bought commercially available Chinese-made drones or civilian products with microcircuits suitable for military use. However, interstate aid has not been confirmed.
Yusov added that information on China's supply of rifles or body armor to Russia was being checked, but there is currently no evidence of such cooperation.?
Yusov's statement comes amid Chinese President Xi Jinping's three-day visit to Russia, which the military official called "a visit of a strong regional leader to a country that is undergoing geopolitical defeat."
"As a pragmatic geopolitical player, China will strengthen its position on Russia's territory, protecting its own economic and other national interests exclusively," Yusov said. "Russia will become less and less a subject, more and more dependent on other players… Putin's regime will continue to weaken."
Chinese leader Xi arrived in Moscow on March 20 for his first state visit to Russia since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. At a?meeting?with his Russian counterpart, Xi said Moscow and Beijing "share similar goals."
Xi's meeting with Putin is a part of a push for multilateral peace negotiations as Beijing claims it wants to play a more active role in ending the war against Ukraine.?
Read more?here.
Why Bank Carnage in the West May Boost China’s Appeal
The past week has demonstrated (and not?for the first time) one of the perils of a globalised financial system: the potential for problems to metastasize quickly, upending the outlook across major economies. The connection between the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a regional lender that wasn’t even designated a global systemically important bank (GSIB), and Credit Suisse Group, very much a GSIB, are far from obvious. Yet the plunge in confidence in smaller US banks made the leap over to Zurich nevertheless.
For China, it’s another reminder of the value of?capital controls and continuing to use Hong Kong as a controllable connection to the global system.
Nomura Holdings economists led by Rob Subbaraman wrote in a note to clients this week that “financial instability is fanning credit risk aversion globally and raising the likelihood of recessions in many economies, with one notable exception: China.”
For years, reform-minded technocrats at China’s?regulators—including its?central bank—backed the idea that an increased presence by US and European financial players in its capital markets would help modernise them.
In the past, Chinese credit-rating agencies would rate almost all domestic companies as investment grade. Just a few years ago, more than 40% of domestic corporate bonds had a top?AAA?rating. Reformers wanted to let foreign agencies in to help overhaul such practices.
Institutional investors have a small footprint in China, with much of the stock market driven by individual, retail traders. Households pour their savings into property (rather than mutual funds or insurance products) when they aren’t keeping them as cash.
Beijing’s broader hope was that reducing barriers and ushering in foreign firms would help make its financial system more efficient, and encourage the allocation of credit on the?basis of risk-reward calculations. That would improve productivity across the economy, bolstering incomes and development, reformers thought.
But the past week’s events from California to Zurich have shown there’s no guarantee of better outcomes with Western firms. KPMG LLP, the global auditing giant, gave?clean audit opinions on Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which have both now collapsed, along with California’s First Republic Bank, which has come under severe scrutiny in the wake of SVB’s collapse. (Even after a $30 billion cash injection was revealed Thursday, First Republic is?still in big trouble.)
Read more?here.
Cambodian PM: Nuclear War Is Almost A Reality
Nuclear war is now almost a reality, noted Samdech Akka Moha Sena Padei Techo Hun Sen, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia, after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant of arrest for Russian President Vladimir Putin recently.
“The world must be wary of nuclear war after the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Mr. Vladimir Putin, which Moscow has denied as an ‘absolutely unacceptable’ charge,” wrote the Cambodian Premier in an article released on his social media network this morning. “The ICC accusations against President Putin are a shocking political development, having far-reaching implications for geopolitics in Europe and the world, and not just war crimes.”
The arrest warrant will also complicate the peace-seeking process in the Ukraine war, especially before the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow, where he is expected to mediate for peace, he said, adding that China itself has also been accused of genocide in Xinjiang. “How can Putin negotiate peace when the other side threatens to arrest him?” he asked.
The ICC has currently 123 members, while major countries such as the U.S., Russia, India and China are not. President Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC in 2019.?
“Did Putin agree to be arrested without confrontation? If Putin is arrested abroad, would the country's authorities accept that their president is arrested? This is the point at which nuclear war is now almost a reality. Any threat to Putin is clear that a nuclear war will erupt and begin in Europe, and those at risk may be even the ICC headquarters, because the nuclear operation is not just 20-30 kilometres, but up to thousands of kilometres,” the Cambodian Prime Minister said.
Read more?here.
Peacefully intended China-Cambodia joint exercise unlike US-led confrontational drills in Asia-Pacific
The Golden Dragon-2023 joint military exercise
On arrival in Sihanoukville, after conducted a joint maritime exercise with the Royal Cambodian Navy, the PLA Navy ship?Jinggangshan?Type 071 comprehensive landing ship?disembarked the?Chinese troops participating in the Golden Dragon-2023 joint exercise. The Chinese troops will mobilise to the exercise region on vehicles and launch the exercise on Monday, according to an exercise plan announced by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command.
Comprising three major parts - joint exercise on security for important events, humanitarian aid and cultural exchange - the exercise will focus on practicing for the manage and control of key target regions, the prevention and control of an unidentified infectious disease, the search and disposal of suspected explosives as well as the handling of slow, low and small flying objects.
The exercise, which will see over 3,000 personnel take part and is scheduled to last until April 8, marks the fifth China-Cambodia regular joint exercise since 2016, and is expected to enhance the two militaries' anti-terrorism and humanitarian aid capabilities
US-led joint drills, including the Balikatan exercise with the Philippines and those with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, are large-scale and feature main battle elements including surface combatants, submarines and warplanes, Chen said. Those US-led exercises are aimed at waging war, while the China-Cambodia joint exercise focuses on exchange and cooperation in non-traditional security fields, he said.
The public should understand that the real trouble maker stirring up confrontation in the region is the US, while China is looking to cooperate and contribute to peace and stability, observers said.
Read more?here.