In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb to the Slaughter
CAR Watch ~ March 2022 ~ In the Rearview
The month began uproariously with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine totally upending the global order. Shockwaves have begun to reverberate throughout the various spheres of influence for all of Afro-Eur-Asia. Rumors of food shortages run rampant, which given the fact a major breadbasket is being bombed into oblivion makes sense. For Africa especially, the fears are acute since so many countries rely on those imports in particular. Fuel shortages and rapid inflation are other painful reminders that no one is getting out of this thing unscathed.?
It finally came time for Maxim Mokom to face the music, as the anti-Balaka leader was hauled in front of the ICC for his role in the mayhem that cascaded across CAR during the 2013-2019 iteration of the long simmering Civil War.?
Pick a side or don’t, even though abstaining is a side of its own. Staying true to its centrality, CAR is attempting to walk the tightrope over this chasm of war but no matter as always there remain bigger fish to fry nearby. Not going as all in as Eritrea but still landing itself on the questionable side-eye list with its abstention, CAR needs to thread the needle very carefully going forward obviously.
Early on there were the usual reports of Wagner and Rebel shenanigans and mid-month brought troubling evidence of another set of major massacres. This horrific pattern seems to continue month after month, with volleys of violence that crescendo in a bloodbath at one point or another.???
In a move straight out of Le Carre a young journalist was rumored to have been poisoned after digging too deep and asking all the wrong questions. This would not be the first time a journalist has fallen prey to assassination while working in CAR, many will recall the case of Camille LePage or the 3 murdered Russians, or the absolute horror story of Elisabeth Blanch Olifio. Later in the month another journalist was forced into hiding after merely asking uncomfortable questions in an open letter to the president. If you are walking in the light then there should be no fear of the spotlight.?
As crackdowns on the roadblock culture bubble to the surface of conversation, stories emerge that these highwaymen have taken to the waterways as well. With the importance of the connections these routes provide for trade and survival in general, one can only hope these vital links to the outside become unhindered sooner than later.
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As the war in Ukraine continued to heat up a new wrinkle emerged in the Wagner saga. Now in addition to importing its mercenaries to CAR and other parts of Africa and the Mideast, it has apparently begun to recruit fighters from these same areas. In need of hardened killers and looking down the barrel at an underestimated and formidable opponent in Ukraine, Russia is pulling out all the stops. The good news, although that’s relative, is the fight in Ukraine is looking like it’s leading to a drawdown in Russian mercenaries from Africa. How long this trend keeps up or if it makes a difference is anyone’s guess.?
A security void is still ever present without doubt but perhaps a corner is being turned. Rwanda’s forces have stepped up as Kagame hopes to reshape another conflict beyond the Congo, MINUSCA stubbornly hangs in there and FACA is in the fight for what it’s worth. France as ever can’t or won’t break its fateful embrace, as the cross-continental co-dependence carries on ad infinitum. And if merely asking questions can get you killed just imagine what might await Ludovic Ledo should he ever return to Bangui from exile in France. The youth leader who worked within the government dished all the dirty war dirt recently. No real surprises, just confirmation of what most assumed but still, for shame.?
The month wound down with the Republican Dialogue getting underway. This is the 12th time in the history of the country that attempts have been made to bring together the widely disparate parties through talks. I don’t think a dozen times will be the charm though unfortunately. Things got off to an inauspicious start with the announcement that the opposition was either boycotting or being banned from the meeting depending on who you asked, which never bodes well for reconciliation. Like most big conferences a lot of words were said, promises made, and pictures taken but not much else substantive occurred. Though a kerfuffle did erupt over intimations that Touadéra might pursue a third term. It was questions raised about this point that led to the latest journalist feeling threatened and heading into hiding.?
On the one hand progress may seem stalled but on the other the sheer fact that there is something positive going on to stall is progress in itself. Baby steps take a long time to get you anywhere but they are better than nothing. Security is improving even if atrocities do still occur frequently and life is getting better for some by degrees, even while others are left precariously in the lurch. This could represent a moment to be seized and not just another lull in the chaos, only time will tell.?
This final piece is an account of a road trip taken last month by John Lechner and some local friends that resonates with the kind of optimism that would have been impossible to fathom a year ago and drives right at the heart of everything that matters. Spring is a time for rebirth, let's hope a dawn finally arrives after this long darkness.?