LIGHTNING STRIKES TWICE

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LIGHTNING STRIKES

By W H Inmon

It is rare that lightning strikes a tree. It is even rarer for lightning to strike the same tree twice. But it is stupendously rare for lightning to strike the same tree twice in the same day. The heavens must have something against that poor tree. And after striking twice, there probably isn’t much tree left.

Recently in the morning I was talking with a venture capitalist. We were discussing technology, the marketplace, trends, and what is current – AI, ChatGPT, generative AI, and current trends. I was talking to the venture capitalist about technology that produced business value for the corporation. I was talking about a corporation making more money, becoming more profitable, and having more customers. I had always assumed that that is what corporations wanted to do.

The venture capitalist interrupted me and said – that isn’t what people are interested in. People today are interested in buying into the technology of AI for the sake of having AI. People are really into technology that is cool. Organizations are heavily into FOMO – fear of missing out. Corporations don’t want to be considered to be behind the times so they have to bring in AI, in one form or the other. Making money and making more revenue is just not what sells today.

Did I hear that right? Corporations are buying into the cool factor without considering the business value? Is that really true?

Then that same afternoon I was talking to a consulting company. And lo and behold I had the same conversation. The head of the consulting firm told me that technology was selling for the sake of technology, not for the enhancement of business value. He said that corporations just weren’t interested in enhancing business value. What corporations were interested in was appearing to be a modern corporation to the outside world. Corporations just weren’t interested in more profitability, more revenue and more customers.

To be honest, I could not believe what I was hearing.

Hasn’t the world learned anything from the many silver bullets that IT has brought to the business community over the years? Hasn’t the world learned to – first and foremost – ask for business value? How many silver bullets have been presented as “the solution” only to disappear in a year or two. If a technology does not bring business value then it has no staying power and will be swept away with the next tide.

The definition of insanity is to do the same thing repeatedly and to expect a different outcome. The corporate community is having decisions being made by either very na?ve people or insane people. (Does it matter which?) Corporations keep buying into the silver bullet expecting their technology and IT problems to disappear.

If technology – any technology – does not fulfill business value then that technology is not long for the earth. And corporate management – once again – will have wasted a lot of money and opportunity. Once again corporate management will have spent huge resources on the silver bullet.

In the Gartner hype curve the vendor produces a tremendous amount of hype in order to establish a product. But when the corporation enters the trough of disillusionment, it is only genuine business value that pulls the technology back into a state of positive acceptance. If there is no business value there, the technology withers and dies.

In a word – if technology is being bought and sold on the basis of cool, then that technology is in danger of being just another failed silver bullet. In order to have a long term, sustained presence and value in the marketplace, the technology MUST produce viable, measurable, prodigious ?business value. That is the most important and the immutable role of new technology if the technology is to survive.

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Bill Inmon lives in Denver with his wife and his two Scotty dogs – Jeb and Lena. The weather is early fall and Jeb and Lena just love going for walks. There is no snow or ice and the pavement is not hot on their paws. Just perfect for a Scotty dog.