Life Is Random. So Random It Could Upend The House Majority

There is a lot of focus this election cycle on politicians’ ages. That is, perhaps, a worthwhile matter to discuss, but life is random. And while low probability things don’t happen often – they do happen. Age does not guarantee the durability of power in Washington any more than it does anywhere else.

On August 3, 2022, Rep. Jackie Walorski was returning from a ribbon cutting ceremony with members of her staff when their car was hit head-on. The congresswoman, who was just a few weeks shy of her 59th birthday, and three others were killed. Just three months later, Rep. Donald McEachin (D-VA) lost his battle with colorectal cancer. He was just 61.

The partisan breakdown in Congress also shifts when lawmakers succumb to ethics investigations or when they resign because a new opportunity has arisen.

What happens to the balance of power in Congress when randomness strikes? It depends on which chamber you are talking about.

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A Brief History of House and Senate Vacancies

Since the 1st Congress, 302 senators have died in office. Thirty House members, including Reps. Walorski and McEachin, have died in office in the last 22 years alone. Dozens of other lawmakers, if not hundreds in the nation’s history, have resigned because of family obligations, due to legal issues, or to take on new opportunities.

In a Congress where the majority relies on a five-vote margin to pass its agenda, the randomness of life can turn tragedy into political turmoil. Already this year, three House lawmakers, two Democrats and one Republican, have resigned or died. Only one of those vacancies has been filled.

While the House majority has never shifted in the middle of a session of Congress before, as The New York Times?noted last month, in the 1930 midterm elections, Republicans narrowly won control of the House, but 14 representatives-elect died before Congress convened. Democrats claimed the majority through several special elections and used their newfound power “to pass economic relief and higher taxes on the rich — policies that were opposed by President Herbert Hoover.”

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Rules for Filling Vacancies

The House and Senate have different rules for filling vacancies and those differences make vacancies much more disruptive in the lower chamber.

As we just witnessed with the appointment of Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) to serve out the rest of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s term, Senate vacancies are often filled almost immediately. Another example: when Ben Sasse announced in December 2022 his intention to resign from the Senate, Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican like Sen. Sasse, took applications until Dec. 23 to fill the spot. Sen. Sasse official resigned in January and his replacement, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, was in the seat just days later.

This swiftness is due to the fact that, in most instances for the Senate, the state’s governor can make an appointment. In fact, 46 states allow a replacement senator to serve until the next scheduled election or until a special election can be held. Only North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin do not allow interim appointments.

The U.S. Constitution says House vacancies can only be filled through a special election. No interim appointments can be made. The office of the previous member of Congress remains open. Staff members (if they choose to remain in their jobs) continue to run the office under the supervision of the House Clerk, but there is no one to cast a vote on the House floor until a special election can be held.

Governors are responsible for ordering House special elections, but the scheduling of elections is outlined in state law. As a result, as the Congressional Research Service has explained, “Nomination procedures for House of Representatives special elections to fill vacancies vary widely among the states. Some states require a special primary election to determine the major party nominees, while minor party and independent candidates generally qualify by filing petitions, the required number of which is set by state law, to gain placement on the general election ballot.” Other states have very different rules.

The difference between state laws meant that, in the 117th Congress, it took as little as two-and-half-months and as long as nine months to fill a long list of vacancies.

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What Randomness Could Be in Store?

We do not have a crystal ball, and we certainly do not want to make predictions about the health and welfare of any member of Congress, but there are plenty of things that could happen between now and November 2024 that could narrow the House majority, or widen it. Ethics issues or a scandal, a private sector opportunity that entices a lawmaker to leave the halls of power, or, maybe, just fatigue.

It is worth noting that the House has just removed its speaker of the House for the first time in the history of the country. Tensions are high on Capitol Hill and there are many lawmakers who may feel like it is too hard to do good on behalf of the American people.

Will this frustration, life actuarial tables, or other random events change the balance of power in the House? Randomness applies to both parties’ membership.? Sometimes you get heads, 7 out of ten times when you flip a coin.? If , the randomness applies more to the GOP than the democrats, we could see a Speaker Jeffries this Congress.? We hope for good health and long lives for all our policymakers, and yet recognize that life is precious and can often be cut short.? While things in Washington seem chaotic, and are chaotic, I have faith in the resiliency of our institutions and the American people to carry on.??