Life is Dangerous; How to Keep Our Loved Ones Safer

“Precaution is better than cure.”   Johann Wolfgang von Goeth

Preface:

In this analysis, I aim to raise your awareness regarding the various risks we face every day. Let’s start by putting away your smartphone; whether it be while driving, walking in a parking lot, or just out in public. Being aware of your surroundings is the most powerful way to make life safer!

Much of the information I share in this analysis is a product of my own experience, observations, and research in support of the creation of my own Event Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Management application. I originally attempted to find a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution but had no luck. 

The link below comprises approximately 15 pages of information on threats and attacks. I was surprised to read this 2017 article and find statistics like; “…the FBI has open terrorism investigations in all 50 states [4]”, and “since 2013, there have been 37 [5] ISIS-linked plots to attack our country.”

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2017/04/18/home-and-away-dhs-and-threats-america 

An Introduction to Violence:

According to various sources (such as theguardian.com), there have been 1,624 mass shootings in 1,870 days (1/1/13 – 2/1/18) in the United States. This seems unbelievable, however more reliable sources indicate that statistics are close to 196 mass shootings which occurred in 2018 (1/1/18 – 7/27/18) in the United States, which certainly don’t provide any type comfort. We are inundated every day with anti-gun rhetoric and pro-gun diatribes, but don’t lose sight of that fact that attacks against people can come in many forms. Some of the more common examples include; guns, bombs (pipe and pressure cooker types are popular currently), vehicles (using the vehicle as a weapon or means to deliver a bomb/device) and knives.  Weed sprayers have even been modified to act as a flame thrower.

Why is it that more tools seem to exist that help organizations with IT security and financial risk assessment than those intended to save lives? I fear the only reasonable answer to that question (and is painful for me to even type this…) is that saving lives is not profitable enough; certainly not as profitable as protecting the corporate bottom line.

Violent Acts Deconstructed:

Mass shootings, homicides and terrorist attacks are not the only risks that we face, and they are certainly not the only violent crimes we should consider when discussing everyday risks.

The proliferation of violent acts associated with gatherings and events in furtherance of political, terrorist and personal agendas has been on the rise since 2006-2007. Most extreme violent acts perpetrated at events were never even predicted, so how could they have been addressed or mitigated? 

Risks are present in every aspect of life from crossing the street to skydiving. Some forms of risk we invite while other just can’t be avoided if we want to leave the house. Unfortunately, appalling acts perpetrated by others are not as rare as we would expect. These acts of violence, although planned, are not always a foregone conclusion. Observation, assessment and mitigation can (and has) disrupted and even stopped imminent acts of violence. 

The Habit of Mitigating Risk:

We all perform risk assessment and mitigation continuously, especially when we have children. Whether these are conscious acts, reflex or habit, every day we try to keep loved ones (and ourselves) safe. Consider a scenario in which you, your family and friends went to a concert or a local fair. Deliberate or not, you automatically perform risk assessment and mitigation on a continuous basis. 

• Did everyone in the car buckle up?
• Did you steer clear of any cars that appeared too risky? (e.g. they drove too fast, their windows were too tinted, the driver appeared to be intoxicated or texting)
• Did you park near lights or away from dark, hidden areas?
• When walking to the venue, did you choose the sidewalk instead of the street? 

How safe did you feel at the event?  Was the event well thought out and safe?  Did you pass through increasingly strict layers of security the closer you traveled to the stage? Did you know that the event had layers of security? Was there a security or law enforcement presence? Have you ever arrived at an event, but went home because you had a bad feeling?

“Change the changeable, accept the unchangeable, and remove yourself from the unacceptable.” Denis Waitley

Obviously, you continually assessed and reacted to perceived risk(s). The problem is, our perception of risk (and everything else) is limited by our knowledge, prejudices, experience and personal beliefs (cognitive bias).

Is this assessment-mitigation loop habit or reflex? It is certainly part of everyone’s survival instinct. 

Personally, when it comes to risk assessment, it’s just automatic. In fact, let’s call it a reflex instead of a habit. I walk into a building, approach an event or observe venues and without effort I start seeing risks and hazards and mentally-note that many that could be easily mitigated. The image in this section is a large, outdoor event open to the public that I have attended and volunteered at over the years. The image displays the venue prior to the arrival of the crowds.  Do you understand why the items are labelled? -- Or are you just looking for the beer tent?

My Crystal Ball:

While on a road trip last weekend, I was reminded of times in the past when I had employees swear that I owned a crystal ball and that fortune telling was the only way I was able to anticipate certain attacks or exploits against our organization. That flashback came to me while driving through some hills in Texas. I notice an 18-wheeler with flashers illuminated and pulled over on the peak of the next hill. I immediately moved into the right lane and slowed down. Sure enough, within seconds debris from the 18-wheeler’s tires (which I had anticipated) was all over the road causing havoc with traffic. Was that fortune telling? Of course not. I have spent far too much of my life on the highways, and through observation and experience learned that this scenario (e.g. failed retreads, dropped loads, etc.) happens a million times each day. Would you have seen the 18-wheeler? Would you have kept yourself and your family safe by slowing down and getting to the right side of the highway? 

The example above is an obvious and simple one. When it comes to issues such as cyber-security, business risk and event risk assessment and mitigation, threats are seldom as obvious as the 18-wheeler pulled over with hazard-flashers on. Businesses hire experts and proven professionals to protect their systems and business. Events such as the Olympics have international, federal, local and private assistance with budgets that run into the billions of dollars. What will companies spend on event security in 2018, when Gartner (a global research and advisory firm) estimates companies will spend $96 Billion to protect against cyber-attacks? Unfortunately, I imagine we are spending more to protect our businesses than we are to protect our families.

Emotional Intelligence:

There has been a great deal of rhetoric associated with Emotional Intelligence (EI or EQ) in recent years. I am not looking to start an argument over the validity of EI, but I feel that EI is nothing new and has always set superior leaders ahead of those that lack a high level of EI. Aside from the obvious benefits a CEO enjoys from possessing a high degree of EI, a person’s ability to anticipate and mitigate risk may also relate directly to having above-average EI. An example would be a person’s ability to anticipate the potentially bad intentions by observing aspects of body language, tone of voice, eye contact, respiration, etc. 

Is that person approaching you a threat? 

• Are they entirely engaged with those they are walking with?
• Do you “sense” anything threatening in their body language?

Have they looked around, at the wrists/hands or waistbands of those in your party?  

• Looking around could indicate they are looking for police, cameras and other threats to their intended crime or associated escape. Or are they just looking for a restroom?
• Examining wrist/hands could indicate interest in the value of your watch and jewelry. Or are they just interested in asking you the time?
• Scrutinizing waistbands could be an attempt to establish the presence of a gun or badge. Or are they just the fashion police checking to see if your leathers match?
• Are you focused on your cell phone, with no idea that you, your friends and/or family are in danger?

A high degree of EI and awareness can greatly reduce the likelihood of being a victim as well as decreasing the severity of bad actions against you. I have seen this repeatedly in real life application. Criminals are looking for easy prey -- don’t make yourself attractive to criminals!

Why Me?!

What made you a victim? That can be answered with one word-- opportunity.

“Life is inherently risky. There is only one big risk you should avoid at all costs, and that is the risk of doing nothing.” Denis Waitley

Obviously, the creation of a victim requires an exploit or attack against an opportunity (or weakness). We need to reduce these opportunities (risks) whether we are walking down Main Street or driving our car. If we get to the point of having to ask, “why me?” we should be asking if we presented an opportunity because of:

• Impairment (by drugs, alcohol, or exhaustion)
• Being in a secluded location
• Standing in one location too long (allowing time to be noticed, observed and targeted)
• Lack of awareness (e.g. are you more focused on your smartphone than anything else?)
• An obvious lack of security, response capabilities or other deterrents
• Other vulnerabilities, other “vectors” of risk, or factors that amplified existing ones (this can even include being injured; crutches, arm in a sling, wheelchair, etc.)
• Truly, just being in the wrong place at the wrong time

Based on my years in and around New Orleans, I have heard, seen and experienced the unique, the good and the bad that the city has to offer. I have observed criminals follow drunken Bourbon Street-goers onto a side street with the intent to rob them (or worse). I have heard the many stories of drunken fools waking up to find they had “lost” their wallet, only to learn later that it had been stolen and their credit cards used at some of the more interesting shops the victim claims they would never visit. 

Why is this side conversation warranted? Over the years I learned who the criminals targeted, and I learned how they identified the “easy targets.” This would seem to be the most frightening concept of this side trip, but it’s not. Criminals, for the most part, are professionals. They not only look for the easy targets, they also stay clear of “questionable” victims. I have seen criminals point out plainclothes officers just by observing them. 

“You are Evil!” (really, I’m not!)

Yes, I guess I understand why the Dean and his staff felt I was evil.

Years ago, after I performed a requested threat assessment for a local community college, my efforts were met with disgust, as if I were evil incarnate. The college had contacted their city’s Chief of Police after the Va. Tech Shooting (which had occurred on 4/16/2007, when a student killed 32 and wounded 17 with a pre-meditated and rehearsed attack). The Chief asked if I would be willing to assist with the assessment, and of course I was happy to help.

Through publicly available photos and satellite imagery, I was able to walk the school’s senior staff through points of concern, hiding areas, lack of escape routes, possible sniper locations as well as simple opportunities to make the campus safer. I did not research school or student social media, but don’t underestimate what knowledge can be ascertained through researching social media, especially where students (including college students) are concerned.

The facility where I performed my risk assessment is no longer a school, so I will share with you the physical layout. The classrooms were all laid-out around the back of the main administrative building and the administrative building was elevated with first and second floor balconies overlooking the classrooms; there was no access control. The courtyard area created by the classrooms enclosed an area with little ingress/egress capabilities. As a matter of fact, to exit students would have to pass through or around the main administrative building. This courtyard area was packed (over two students per square meter) between classes since every class let out at the same time and into the same area. I pointed out to the staff the ease with which anyone could walk on campus (as I did days before in jeans and a t-shirt), noting that from readily available elevated positions, an attacker could shoot a large number of students. If the students wanted to escape they would have to run towards the shooter.   The students would be trapped in the “courtyard”, the shooter would be very close and elevated, with no worry of encountering a response from law enforcement for several minutes due to its rural location. Hidden areas between buildings and associated risks were also covered. The staff appreciated the assessment but were visibly upset that I had presented such “violent” and “scary” scenarios. 

How many Educators or other professionals perform threat assessments? Are they limited by their own values and beliefs? Is this a problem? YES!

First Responder's Challenges:

“Living at risk is jumping off the cliff and building your wings on the way down.”  Ray Bradbury

Events with uniformed law enforcement tend to provide attendees with some sense of safety and security. Their presence represents a level of deterrence, but also indicates that some level of planning must have taken place to ensure the event is safe. We can readily cite two examples of school shootings in 2018 where the presence of School Resource Officers resulted in very different outcomes. Their presence did not deter the school shootings, but the actions of those individual School Resource Officers certainly differed greatly as did the outcome of the two shootings. At one scene, the Resource Officer(s) stood outside while violence was being perpetrated against students (in total contrast to what is considered acceptable) and in the second scene, the School Resource Officer put himself in harm’s way and stopped the school shooter. 

Noteworthy to those not close to law enforcement is the procedure for many law enforcement agencies responding to a school shooting. Officers/deputies are to wear their bright POLICE vests to the draw attention (and gun fire) away from others, while putting themselves in danger. 

Observations Relevant to Risk, One Night Before the Vegas Shooting:

So, what are we looking for when walking into a venue? I guess that depends on your “mission.” Are you there to enjoy the music? Are you there as security or first responder? Are you there as a vendor? 

Here is what I observed at one event:

• The venue was “framed” by water on the right, levee on the left, a stage and high fence/gate to the front and to the rear an incline an which you walk down to enter the venue
• A large crowd and very high crowd density
• A high temperature environment with limited drinking water
• Costumed attendees and families with small children
• Elderly and handicapped attendees (no designated areas for special needs)
• A great deal of alcohol consumption
• Coolers, backpacks and chairs permitted
• Multiple buildings with elevated positions (i.e. position of advantage) within 200 meters around the perimeter of the venue

I greatly reduced the above list, as it originally comprised an additional 41 observations/ potential risks for consideration and mitigation (and it was still only a partial example). Why even bring up these observations? The answer is that the very next evening in Las Vegas would redefine our concept of Mass Shootings in the United States (and it could have just as easily been the venue I described above or one of a thousand other festivals or concerts).

Las Vegas 10/1/17 shooting – Deadliest mass shooting by an individual in the history of the United States:

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2018/jan/19/sheriff-to-provide-update-about-strip-mass-shootin/

• At 10:05 pm the shooter smashed out windows and fired into the crowd of 22,000 people 500+ yards away
• Total number of deaths: 59 (including the perpetrator)
• Non-fatal injuries: 500+, some estimates exceed 800 (over 400 from gunshot wounds)

Did the shooter fall into any profiles or “models” that should have warned of his aspiration for violence? 

Prior to the investigation the shooter was referred to as “Just a normal guy”

• 64-year-old, High-rolling gambler and drinker
• Father was a bank robber
• The firearms used in the shooting were acquired legally

After the investigation it was determined that the shooter:

• Was a loner/ Private (disturbed and dangerous according to some investigators)
• Sent his girlfriend away prior to the execution of the attack (possibly to assure no interference)
• Planned the attack (meticulously planned according to investigators)
• Brought 10+ suitcases brought into his Vegas hotel room (housekeeper reported nothing out of the ordinary)
• Installed cameras in his room and in the hallway
• Showed indications of possible neurological disorder found during autopsy

If the shooter fell into any “models” or possessed characteristic of the psychology of a mass murders, it was not apparent until investigating the man after the event. Where many school shooters take part in what is called “leakage,” in which there is a foretelling of their plan on social media or within social circles, this shooter seems to have kept his plans a secret. Does this mean that any event, trip to a restaurant, or church visit could make you a victim? Sadly, the answer is “yes.” You can reference the graphic depicting locations of 160 Active Shooters earlier in this writing. 

Individual Limitation. We don’t know, what we don’t know:

It’s hard to discuss getting past individual limitations, especially since individuals “don’t know what they don’t know,” or so goes the saying. What we do know and can discuss is the fact that tool exist for every hobby, business and profession that help “level the playing field,” consider companies like SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, etc. 

What does a Fortune 500 company do when a weakness is identified? They purchase the best software available, they perform a multi-million-dollar implementation and training program and they consult with subject matter experts from around the country. Does anything like that exist where risk mitigation is concerned? I believe the answer is yes as far as consultants and labor intensive are concerned, but the answer seems to be nowhere software tools are concerned. This means that only well-financed events, like a presidential visit or the Olympic Games, can benefit from these consultants.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Homeland Security have created some useful instructions regarding event risk assessment and mitigation, but they are rather voluminous, and you’d have to spend a great deal of time studying entire books to pull out specifics relevant to your event. Event planners and management should have critical information readily available based on the event, the weather, the season, location specific, known threats and much more. There won’t be time to Google, study and research things such as the safe standoff distance from a pressure cooker bomb, the difference between life-threatening and non-life-threatening cold or heat injuries, at what point you must seek cover when a storm approaches (lightning safety best practices), etc. Consider the complexities of Command and Control planning for large events. You cannot assume a Multi-Jurisdictional response will be successful, it must be planned and tested. Are escalation procedures and relevant contact information readily available?

Some risk factors may be overlooked without experience specific to event risk mitigation. For example, attendee’s ability to safely exit during an emergency can be greatly impacted by chosen route and an understanding of crowd density. In this context, the following are some interesting facts:

• An open-door limits crowd flow to 1 person a second
• Turnstiles take more than twice the time as an open door
• Stairs impede crowd flow even worse than a turnstile

Closing:

Throughout this article, I have commented on smartphones and their ability to redirect our attention away from that which is most important -- our own safety and the safety of others. Please don’t feel that I have a problem with the use of technology as that couldn’t be further from the truth. What I am painfully aware of is the increase in thefts, pedestrian deaths and increased vehicular accidents related to the use of smartphones.

We share the responsibility of keeping people around us safe with event sponsors, planners and venue owners. Those responsible for events are required to keep attendees safe from preventable harm. However, we must all remain aware of our surroundings and report (Dial 911) suspicious items, people and situations. Don’t under estimate the importance of something that just doesn't feel right. I would suggest reading Malcom Gladwell’s book “Blink” (it may literally open your eyes). 

Remember, to “See Something, Say Something,” requires you to SEE!  

Stay safe and thanks for reading.