Life and Business in the Time of Covid-19

I am writing this while living under a local, state and federal state of emergency from Covid-19. There are five confirmed cases at the hospital <1 mile from my apartment, 90+ cases within 10 miles and nearly 1,000 within 20 miles.

At this time last week I was packing for a Monday morning trip to Toronto. A week ago I arrived at an eerily empty Newark Airport and boarded an unusually empty plane of maybe 20 people.

I watched from afar like a weird dream as the Covid-19 count for NY/NJ cases escalated. I began getting texts like ‘stay in Canada’ and ‘bring me Purell’ and ‘come home ASAP.’ I thought they must be overreacting. How could NJ really be out of toilet paper and hand sanitizer and soap?

Then Thursday came. I planned on stopping at the pharmacy to stock up on soap and sanitizer before flying home, still not believing this was life right now.

Unfortunately, it was too little too late… the overarching theme of how we’re handling Covid-19.

An hour before my planned pharmacy visit, Ontario announced province-wide school closures and prime minister’s wife announced she was exposed to Covid-19. I went to the pharmacy as planned, because again, how bad could it be? I found myself in the middle of Canadian Covid hysteria. Empty shelves but still very polite people.

If this is how it looked in Toronto, I was not eager to get back to NJ, but on I went.

I flew home on an almost empty plane, landed at an almost empty airport and got picked up by a nervous mom too scared to let me get into an ‘infected’ uber.

Was this real life? WTF happened in just FOUR days?

I spent Friday trying to understand. I couldn’t sleep knowing I was going to have to make some hard decisions for my life, family and business. I was mostly asking:

How was this happening in America?

I read everything I could find on the virus and what the expected outcome of NY/NJ/CT was. I listened to infectious disease experts and policy makers. I reviewed what went wrong in places like Italy and what worked in places like South Korea.

Here is what I’ve learned and the three big lessons I’m sharing with friends and family:

One: Less toilet paper, more isolation.

Overall, we are grossly under-reacting. Yes, we are not doing enough. I’m not talking about the stockpiling of food or toilet paper. We’re so busy prepping for a quarantine that we’re not focused on stopping the virus from getting there in the first place. To be clear: We have not and are not doing enough to stop the spread of this virus.

I don’t care how much you wash your hands or pour Purell on them after you touch a new surface, it is simply not enough.

We need to be self isolating. Immediately. The only way to separate the sick people from the non-sick people is to separate ALL the people. The only way to protect our more vulnerable people is to keep them away from sick people. Our local, state and federal governments may not be able to do this for us. We have to do it for ourselves, our neighbors and our families. It is frankly not worth the risk not to.

Two: Less myths, more facts.

I don’t care about your political affiliation or where you’re at on the scale of ‘this is a hoax’ to ‘its the apocalypse’. There are facts that continue to get ignored or misconstrued. Most of the confusion is related to Covid-19’s R0 (how contagious a virus is) and fatality rate (how deadly a virus is).

Stick with me on some science and math stuff here for a minute.

R0 = number of people an infected person will likely spread the virus to.

Covid-19 has an R0 of roughly 2 to 2.5, which means each new person spreads the virus to 2 to 2.5 other people. For context, it puts it significantly above the seasonal flu (R0 of 1.3, less contagious) but below SARS (R0 of 3, more contagious).

The fact is: Covid-19 is MORE contagious that the regular flu by almost 2x as much. Read that again.

Fatality rate = the % of people who will likely die from the virus.

Covid-19’s fatality rate varies based on new data but we’re seeing numbers that go from 1% to 3% (many experts say it will likely end up being closer to 1%.). Again with some reference, the seasonal flu has a fatality rate of 0.1%. This means if 1,000 people got the seasonal flu, 1 may die. If 1,000 people get Covid-19, 10 may die.

The fact: Covid-19 is at least 10x as deadly as the seasonal flu. Read that again.

It is likely we will still see more deaths from the seasonal flu this year than we will Covid-19. It’s math. More people will get the flu this season than Covid-19. However, the argument for inaction shouldn’t be ‘well the regular flu kills more people.’

The widespread philosophy of ignoring Covid-19 because the ‘flu kills more people’ is like letting your toddlers play with knives because guns kill more people. It’s literally that stupid.

Also, we have a vaccine to stop the spread of a seasonal flu when it gets bad. We have known early intervention treatments and easily accessible testing capabilities. Oh and the safety net that the flu dies down come Spring. We have NONE of this for Covid-19. This leaves the containment and prevention of spread entirely up to us. Us like literally you and me.

Lastly, the biggest and most dangerous myth of all is the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in US. The current numbers are devastatingly false. Our government has failed to supply the number of tests and testing infrastructure needed to properly curb this virus. As someone living in one of the Covid-19 hotbeds, we either don’t have tests available locally or we just can’t get them based on the long list of requirements you must meet to get tested. The numbers are inaccurate, period.

South Korea did it right, Italy struggled in all the ways we are struggling now — that should concern you. A Johns Hopkins professor estimates at least 50,000 people in the US have Covid-19. Conservative estimates from infectious disease specialists estimate that the actual number of cases is 25–50x the current reported figures. That could be 75,000 to 150,000 cases in this country alone. Now apply those R0 rates and fatality rates to that and you’ll see why people are scared.

Three: Less relying on government, more relying on yourself.

With very few exceptions, our local, state and federal government is grossly failing us on preventing Covid-19 from being a devastating American epidemic. We each need to look forward and carefully plan out our next steps as individuals, families and business owners. I can’t tell you what to do for you, but I will tell you what I’m doing for me:

a) Self-Isolation

Starting tomorrow, I am self-isolating with my partner for a minimum of 7 days. This means no outside human contact during that time. No exceptions. I elbow bumped my mom goodbye today while trying not to cry. It’s all harder than it sounds.

b) Food/Water

My partner and I stocked up on non-perishables the past few weeks. Yesterday and the day before were spent buying fresh foods, meal prepping (using lots of onion, garlic and herbs) and freezing them in case fresh food isn’t easy to get to. We also got new water filters and stocked up on some water bottles just in case.

c) Supplements/Medication

We don’t know what prevents or cures this virus. I really went old school to see what people used before modern medicine to fight viruses. Since my main priority in this area was my parents (they’re around 60 and both have health issues that make them higher risk for Covid-19 complications) I focused on things that can keep them healthy and prevent the virus. I also stocked up on stuff that may be able to treat them god forbid they get sick because we already have a hostipal bed shortage in the NY Metro area and I cannot leave my parents’ lives up to chance/faith that there will be a bed for them should something happen. Again, this is what’s happening in Italy as there are not enough beds, rooms, ventilators, etc for all the sick people.

The core of my herbal aresenal is homemade elderberry syrup (with star anise, cloves, cinnamon, ginger, echinacea, etc). This has acted as a preventative and helpful immune support during many other viruses so it felt worth the effort and risk. I found multivitamins, herbal complexes and probiotics for them as well.

Lastly, I replaced all our NSAIDs with Tylenol should we absolutely need them. NSAIDs are reported to have terrible side effects on our body’s ability to protect us from Covid-19. They’re also reportly making it more difficult for our bodies to fight the virus once we have it, which is potentially increasing the percent of people with Covid-19 who will end up in critical condition. Google this if you take NSAIDs regularly.

d) Business/Work

This was the hardest. Over the course of four very long days, I’ve had to work with three business partners across three different businesses regarding our response to the virus (and help my mom navigate her own business at the same time). This should be the easiest thing to do but it’s not, which is for another article.

I need to say this to my fellow entrepreneurs and leaders:

NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE LIVES OF YOUR PEOPLE.

Literally nothing. Not the deadline, not the money, not even your ability to pay your employees. We are in life or death territory BECAUSE we are so late to the game.

Please, if you lead a non-essential business, close it or allow your employees to work remotely. ASAP. Today.

If finances are stopping you from making this call, please say fuck it to your rent and bills. Guide your employees through the federal financial support that is about to be available to them. Apply for SBA loans or debt if you have to. Your credit score or bank account will not matter to you or anyone else once someone you care about is sick.

It doesn’t matter if you have one employee or ten thousand. You have a moral responsibility as a person of power to take care of your peoplefrom customers to employees to family.

If you’ve made it this far…

Life is short. Sometimes it’s hard. Sometimes it’s beautiful. We are a tough, adaptable species. We have been through worse and will get through this. But we need to self isolate, take care of ourselves and have a plan to take care of our loved ones if we’re going to make it through this with as little loss as possible.

It is my hope you use the full scope of whatever power you have to make choices that help protect people. It is also my hope that you try to find some silver linings. They are there.

Here are silver linings I’m stealing from my good friend and healthcare worker, Eileen Fuentes: More uninterrupted family/partner time, a deeper appreciation for natural therapies and a rare moment where our global, collective goal is a shared one.

Stay safe people.