LIFE AFTER THE LOCKDOWN ENDS

LIFE AFTER CORONA LOCKDOWN ENDS

The loss due to the corona virus will be in trillions of dollars all over the world. This loss is mostly notional except for the workforce. Why notional? During this period neither raw material was consumed nor was power and fuel used. The semi finished and the finished goods are waiting and once in the market, will recover the cost. The interest loss on borrowed capital will hopefully get managed.The real loss is that of the workforce. Very few companies will pay full salaries for no work. Additionally there is a strong possibility that demand will remain low for quite some time. Hence there will be a downsizing at all levels. The hardest hit will probably be the service sectors like airlines, interstate transport of people and goods, export oriented companies, construction and real estate and other non essential industries.

In the longer run India will probably gain from the gradual withdrawal of international dependence on China not only because the last few pandemics have been related with China directly or indirectly but this time the international community has developed a distrust for China and will look at alternative safer and equally cheap sources of manufacture. India is ideal in many ways if reforms are actually carried out.

Coming to the workforce. The following is my opinion. I hope I am wrong.Things are going to be bad and only the fittest will survive. In very blunt words all those who gave less than 100 % may be let go. Those who have only one skill may have to go. Those whose skill is replaceable may have to go. Those who, in the estimate of their bosses, are not worth the salary paid will be asked to go. Yes, It's unfair. Who said life is fair?

If you are lucky to retain your job don't take it for granted. If the organisation has to survive and prosper it will need more innovation and waste reduction. Though most organisations feel the best way to reduce costs is by reducing manpower it is not the wisest course of action. It is better to focus on higher productivity and waste reduction. As a general estimate in most manufacturing setups the total manpower cost is only 30% of the total cost. The rest is raw materials, power and fuel etc. It is possible to save 15%-20% of 70% than of 30%.

Those in a position to save jobs must do so. Plan to re-coup the losses by better productivity and innovative waste reduction. The first step is to reduce the direct manpower and operational time for the same production. The manpower saved must work towards reduction in waiting losses, breakdown losses, planning losses etc.

In case you are in the unfortunate group who has lost your job the first thing is to not take it personally. You should have confidence in yourself and your abilities. Now look at why you were not in the preferred group. Maybe your skill set was not "essential". Maybe even if your skill set was required your level was not in the top. Maybe you had only one skill while others had more. 

Look at this as an opportunity not a calamity. Work on your weaknesses. Take extra courses and imbibe new skills. Be a problem solver not a bystander or worse a problem creater.

History has many examples of losers who later on became billionaires and those who apparently got immediate success but remained in those positions all their lives. So be always positive and look ahead. The past is gone. Look to the future.