LIFE AFTER CORONAVIRUS, CAN IT BE BEAUTIFUL?
The UK Government prefers the message that we will ‘get through’ Covid-19 and life will go on as before. But as we saw with 9/11, when the dust of disaster clears, it may not be business as usual. So, what should we expect when the virus subsides?
In the US, President Trump insists that Covid-19 ‘will go away’. In the UK, Boris Johnson tells us that we can beat Corona in just 12 weeks. In China there are glimpses of success against the disease and concerns that a second wave may be beginning. Meanwhile, the virus marches on. But no matter where you look, the over-arching theme is that this pandemic will pass and all will return to normal.
But what does normal look like? Even if we assume that the predictions of only three to six months of upheaval are correct, where will we be when we reach the other side? What will life after Covid-19 look like? Can it be beautiful? Let’s peer into our crystal ball…
Get used to it, it’s here to stay
The assumption seems to be that Covid-19 will be defeated and never raise its ugly head again. This may not be the case. The Bubonic Plague that wiped out half of Eurasia between 1346 and 1353 made repeat appearances well into the 19th century. The Influenza Pandemic of 1918 that infected 25% of the world and killed 50 million lasted three long years. The West African Ebola Epidemic that began in Uganda in 2012 and spread to a further ten nations, lasted until 2016. Clearly, some diseases do not go away. They linger. They change. They kill.
We live with seasonal flu as a fact of life. Will Covid-19 become an annual issue? If it does, it seems likely that investment in world health systems will grow at their fastest rate ever to combat the threat. Nothing draws a politician’s attention better than their premature death. Vaccination for old and young may also become a mandatory undertaking, much to the angst of anti-vaxxers everywhere. Large scale effort to create a wall of immunity against Corona and a host of deadly illnesses may appear. Maybe even the US, possibly the industrialised country least prepared to fight a pandemic, will introduce long-overdue universal healthcare.
Coronavirus has gripped the globe’s attention like no other health event in living memory. It may be the spur that finally brings quality medical care to all.
Your house is now your home, theatre, restaurant, market, everything
It only took the hint of a UK lockdown to create panic buying, end of world prepping and a bunker-like mentality. As soon as the Government asked us to reduce travel, work from home and stay away from pubs, our homes became our fortress. Our worlds shrank to the space within those walls.
This contraction has been matched by a massive expansion in our demand for online services. Websites and delivery systems have snapped under the strain. Suddenly, we want it all at home – working, communicating, shopping, food delivery, entertainment, education, you name it. If it can be delivered or generated through the click of a mouse, we want it – now - and it seems likely this mood is set to stay. It does not bode well for some indusries.
Doom looms for cinemas, theatres, shopping malls, restaurants, bars, offices and thousands of allied companies. As we get used to idea of ‘staying in’ and doorstep service, so corresponding damage to those old-school businesses will grow. Some pension funds are already saying that their commercial property portfolios are currently impossible to value. Our growing acceptance of doing less ‘out there’ and doing more ‘in here’ has become a mortal threat to bricks and mortar operations. Expect wave after wave of bankruptcies in affected businesses and mass layoffs for their staff.
On the other side of spectrum, it’s possible that a new era in home living is on the horizon. Fresh players will step in to challenge and supplant the incumbent services. There will be new Facebooks, more Amazons, better Netflix and Ocado. Many of us will only leave our homes for pleasure and leisure, as the daily grind blends with our indoor life. Parenting will likely see more sharing. There may be an uptick in support for the elderly and disabled. Our homes and communities will become more important to us, which may result in improved social behaviour, reduced crime, less hostility and reduced racism. Perhaps thinking smaller will make us bigger. If it does, we should welcome it. It’s been a long time coming.
A surplus of shops and offices creates the needed supply of new homes
As London sits in sixth place on the most expensive cities in Europe to live in list, (the top five are all in Switzerland – go figure), so estimates say the UK needs more than three million new affordable homes. With the UK’s housing shortage at breaking point, perhaps the fall-out from Corona will help to close the gap?
As the move to online living grows, so our needs for many buildings will recede. The impact of the virus has hit the travel industry hard. Many hotels face oblivion. They will leave a trail of empty buildings in cities as varied as London, Edinburgh, Bristol, Newcastle and Bournemouth. Their carcasses will be well-suited for conversion into affordable living units.
The same can also be said for a pending avalanche of obsolete office blocks, malls and light industrial spaces. The effects of Covid-19 will create vast gaps in the economy that will drive many marginal businesses out of existence. Their legacy will be an opportunity to create a range of new homes that do not cater for the rich.
Too much emphasis has been placed on luxury accommodation in recent decades. Now, with money tight, private developers risk averse and a Government hamstrung by huge debt, expect the focus to move away from building for the top five percent and to concentrate on providing good housing for those stuck in exorbitant private rentals, living with parents, and the millions who can never see the property ladder, let alone get on it. Let the malls go. Let the homes arrive.
The end of ‘greed is good’ is good
Lastly, one more benefit from Coronavirus could be the end of the era of ‘greed is good’. Admittedly, initial indicators such as food hoarding and short-term profiteering on essentials like face masks, sanitiser and even toilet rolls do not present a positive side. However, expect this ‘survival of the fittest’ mantra to fade as the grim statistics grow and an understanding that ‘we’re all in this together’ takes hold. Social distancing may be the immediate demand to stop viral spread, but social coherence may the long-term impact of the pandemic.
It is a certainty that real investment in social services will arise as a result of Covid-19, if only to be better prepared for what comes next. Less tangible improvements, such as greater community spirit and an increased sense of caring may also occur. With luck, the concentration on material wealth that has gripped us since the 1980’s will disintegrate under a new-found sense of fairness. The age of Gordon Gekko may finally be over.
Moving on
Without doubt, the coming months will be a challenge for the whole world. Coronavirus will impact every corner of the Earth. No community will be immune. However, even in these darkest times, there is still room for hope. The disease may cause incalculable harm in the short term, but in the long run, it could be the initiator for a better way of life. Perhaps that’s the silver lining in the Covid-19 cloud? Stay safe, trust in those around you and the future can be bright. Good luck to all.
Links and sources:
Bubonic Plague spread: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ase/advpub/0/advpub_161011/_pdf
1918 Influenza Pandemic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
Ebola Outbreaks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ebola_outbreaks
Supermarkets: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8129629/Ocado-sales-soar-stay-home-shoppers-plump-deliveries-amid-pandemic.html
Pension funds: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/markets-turmoil-property-funds-have-trapped-investors-cash/
New Homes needed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-46788530
Expensive European cities: https://expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index/europe?ranking=16