Lies, Damn Lies . . . . and beaten to it by the BBC!
As a (hobby) mathematician, I have become increasingly frustrated by the government presentation of data concerning Covid-19. Yesterday morning I thought I would spend 30 mins putting my thoughts onto paper ready to post to LinkedIn . . .
Today I took lunch and caught up with BBC news – only to find that the UK Statistics Authority has written to Matt Hancock criticising the presentation of this data!
Not wishing to have wasted those 30 mins I will present those thoughts anyway . . . and don’t forget – you could have heard it here first!
During the crisis we have been presented with huge amounts of data and associated graphs to help explain the government strategy – showing how we have ‘flattened the curver’ and negotiated phase one of the pandemic.
My question is – ‘How Helpful is this Data?’
For example, each evening we are shown the number of tests which have been carried out in the previous 24 hours, and then the number of new cases. Both are presented on the same slide with an implicit conclusion that the number of new cases (low) is from the number of tests (high) – a good thing. What is not stated is the number of PEOPLE tested and whether these are first or repeat tests (people are tested multiple times). This would provide clearer information on whether the virus is spreading or declining.
Another area concerns the comparison of numbers of deaths between countries – again implying simple conclusions to complex questions. We cannot compare the success (or otherwise) of different government strategies unless we are sure that data is comparable – are all countries reporting deaths in the same way, across the same environments and within the same timescales?
I appreciate there is an obligation to inform the population but we need to be aware of how to interpret and question . . . . something I always aspire to in my professional life when looking to understand client challenges and ensure that solutions are presented clearly and with relevant information!
Andy, I would agree I think there should be a common criterion for measuring deaths and would have expected this to come from W.H.O as they declared it as a global pandemic as this would have made this easier for comparison.