Liberation of Kherson in November 2022

Disclaimer

All information in the text was taken from public sources. I have no access to the direct military information, thus any claims below must be taken with care. However, as usual, I try to only publish the proved statements.

Primer

A lot has happened since my previous report about the Russo-Ukrainian war operations as of 30th of October. So much so, that it deserves a new Breaking News report, especially the one about the liberation of the major Ukrainian city of Kherson on November 11. Thus, this report is unusual: I will only briefly touch the war operations in Kherson Oblast. Another specifics is that I will focus more on WHY rather than WHAT happened.

Details

Kherson and Mykolayiv Oblasts Warzone in March-October 2022

In order to understand WHAT happened in and around Kherson city during the last week, one must first understand WHAT was happening in the entire battlefield on the west (right) bank of Dnipro river in Kherson, Mykolayiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts of Ukraine during the last 8 months.

First of all, one must imagine that the total area of this warzone alone is around 13'000 square kilometers, approximately the size of Montenegro; which was undersgoing non-stop daily fire exchanges by both sides from all modern weapons available for the last 8 months. Furthermore, this was not a trench war as one could imagine; but rather a highly maneuvering modern warfare resulting into complex frontline changes weekly if not daily.

Just look at the map below which summarizes the war proceedings:

• Around February 26 avanguard russian terrorists groups cross the Dnipro river near Kherson and Nove Kakhovka for the first time; so we may assume that the Dnipro river was the frontline at that very day.
• Red frontline and arrows: russian terrorists advances until March 15.
• Orange frontline and arrows: both sides' advances until April 15.
• Yellow frontline and arrows: both sides' advances until June 1.
• Green frontline and arrows: both sides' advances until September 1.
• Blue frontline and arrows: Ukrainian Army advances until November 1.

One can notice from the map, that the timeline of this battlefield can be divided into 4 distinct periods:

1. February 24 - middle of March: a rapid russian Bliezkrieg capturing the important cities of Kherson, Beryslav, and Snihurivka; which followed by a massive campaign trying to encircle and capture the major cities of Mykolayiv, Nova Odesa, and Voznesensk; with the final goal to approach the city-port of Odesa and capture the Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Yuzhnoukrayinsk.
2. End of March - end of May: a decisive victory of the Ukrainian Army which repelled russian terrorists from the outskirts of Mykolayiv city; which triggered a re-prioritization of the russian terrorists offensive campaign to the east side of Kherson Oblast in an attempt to approach major cities of Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih; with the final goal to strike further eastward towards the major cities of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
3. Beginning of June - middle of August: the russian terrorists offensive reaches its culmination; that resulted into the visual stabilization of the frontline. However, the frontline was in fact quite unstable during the entire period as can be seen in my previous reports. Indeed, in was characterized by large-scale local offensives, smart pincer strikes, constant massive artillery warfare, and air strikes from both sides, as well as a large-scale interdiction campaign of the Ukrainian Army to disrupt russian army logistics across the Dnipro river. All that, although did not give direct result on the map, resulted into the exhaustion of the russian terrorists army, disruption of their logistics system, and general demoralization; all of which was slowly yet steadily giving the upper to the Ukrainian Army on the battlefield.
4. End of August - end of October: the Ukrainian Army have finally reached the complete supremacy on the battlefield in this area in both army morale and firepower, and started a crawling counter-offensive campaign. This whole campaign was characterized not by full-scale offensives (as e.g. in the Kharkiv Oblast), but rather by exhaustive pincer strikes and elaborate suppression of the opponent's logistics and ability to maneuver. That way, the Ukrainian Army was liberating one village or town after another until the last week; totalling for more than 60 liberated settlements and over 3'000 of square kilemeters of land.

The liberation of Kherson

Now we approached as far as November 1. And as one might see the Ukrainian Army was still visually far from liberating the city of Kherson at that day. So what has changed during just one week?

The russian propaganda machine rushed to declare on November 8 that their army commandment has ordered their military contingent to retreat from the west bank of Dnipro; as usual "as a good will to save human lives". I am more than sure that nobody believe in the russian terrorists good will. How can an army have any kind of good will if it, for example, left in place only 30 denizens out of 4'000 in a large village of Stanislav (on the westernmost tip of the west Dnipro river bank in Kherson Oblast), others being either deported or murdered. Yet still, can you believe that they really started to retreat and not flee?

Lets look at the warfare map for the last 2 weeks in order to understand.

On the map above:

• Red line - approximate frontline as of October 30.
• Violet line - approximate frontline as of November 8.
• Blue line - approximate frontline as of November 10.
• Also highlighting the (almost destroyed) Antonivkyi road bridge, (destroyed) Antonivskyi railroad bridge, and (functional) Nova Kakhovka road plus railroad bridge over a riverdam - the only ways to cross the Dnipro river in the area.

As one can see, within just 10 days between October 30 and November 8 the Ukrainian Army was able to liberate more than a dozen of villages on the west bank of the Dnipro river; most notably (east to west):

• A full-scale offensive from Dudchany, Petropavlivka, and Davydiv Brid (that famous bridgehead secured 3 months ago) towards the cities of Beryslav and Snihurivka simultaneously; liberating a vast amount of territory.
• A takeover of the railway station in the city of Snihurivka and the start of street fighting inside the city after the 2-months long siege. This effectively cut in half the railroad (Nova Kahovka - Snihurivka - Kherson) that was used as a primary supply line for the russian terrorist troops on the west of Kherson Oblast, after the Ukrainian Army destroyed the railroad bridge in Antonivka 2 months ago.
• An abandonement of russian positions in the village of Kyselivka northwest of the city of Kherson after days of punishing artillery fire of the Ukrainian Army; and consequent takeover of the position by the Ukrainian Army.
• A liberation of the important village of Stanislav on the westernmost tip of the right bank of Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast; a site which was lying on the frontline for the last 6 months.

Then, when the Ukrainian Army was standing mere 12 kilometers from the city of Kherson, 22 kilimeters from the city of Beryslav, almost liberated the city of Snihurivka, was rapidly regrouping an continuing the offensive campaign... and was threatening to lock the 40'000 heads russian army contingent on the west bank without a chance to retreat... what happened? Yes, at November 9, the russian minister of offense Shoigu declared an order to retreat russian troops from the west bank, and russian general lord of terror Surovikin (an inhuman being responsible for the massacres of Aleppo and Mariupol) seconded him.

One would imagine that the retreat operation of the 40'000 soldiers would take at least a few weeks and will be supported by artillery and air strikes, right? Not in case of the russian army... what russian ministers say has nothing to do with what russian army does. Those pitiful ministers where just creating a political image to preserve their butts in their seats, no more than that; because they knew what was coming. Whereas russian army was randomly abandoning positions on the west bank of Dnipro river weeks before those ministers declared a retreat campaign.

But lets fully restore the timeline of events, so you have an idea of what really happened. So, these were the final events of the last few days:

• November 8: the Ukrainian Army is in the process to liberate the city of Snihurivka, evolves a full-scale offensive towards the city of Beryslav, and prepares to liberate the city of Kherson.
• November 9: hearing bad news from the frontline the russian commandment declares the retreat of their army from the west bank of Dnipro river.
• November 10: the Ukrainian Army fully liberates the city of Snihurivka and surrounding suburbia; and in parallel makes a successful pincer strike towards the village of Chornobayivka, approaching just 4 kilometers away from the city of Kherson. That latter event had dramatic consequences onto the overall situation. First, Chornobayivka was used as a primary military base of russian terrorists in the region, hosting their main command center as well. Second, it is that very Chornobayivka which witnessed a death of thousands of russian soldiers and hundreds of expensive military warmachines ranging from airplanes, to helicopters, to tanks, to radars, to missile launchers. Finally, as stated above it is just 4 kilometers from the city of Kherson, and street fighting in this village meant that the army commandment have fled away days ago leaving their army effectively headless.
• Night between November 10 and November 11: the news about street fighting in Chornobayivka created a snowball effect in the russian army. In and around Kherson no single terrorist was caring about russian ideals anymore, every body just wanted to flee as soon as possible, creating a massive pressure onto the Antonivskyi bridge connecting the city of Kherson to the left bank of the Dnipro river. As this bridge is nearly destroyed by the Ukrainian artillery strikes, all that mass of escapers were walking it on foot... and from time to time dying under the regular artillery strikes of the Ukrainian Army. What's more, some prankers (supposedly, from the Ukrainian GUR) created fake news about dissending onto the city of Kakhovka and taking control over the Nova Kakhovka riverdam. That created the havoc among russian troops on the left bank of the Dnipro river as well. So, midnight some russian terrorist on the left bank opened friendly fire against the fleeing russians on the Antonivskyi road (effectively walking) bridge... and the russian terrorists on the right bank responded back. What followed was a full-scale battle between two groups of the russian terrorists across the russian river using all weapons available, including the artillery and even a shot of the S-300 missile (onto a bridge). All of that accompanied by a continuing artillery fire of the Ukrainian Army. The aftermath as yet unclear: potentially hundreds of dead from "friendly" fire, a retreat of the russian SAM batallion which was located on the islands in the vicinity of the Antonivskyi bridge, and even more chaotic fleeing of russian soldiers from the right bank (in particular, from the city of Kherson).
• November 11 (today): there is a proven evidence that the Ukrainian Army have entered the city of Kherson and approached the city center without resistance; there it was greated by the remaining population as Heroes and liberators. There is a lot of reports across the entire area about liberated settlements here and there, but I most of them are not proven and may appear to be a snowball of false news (like it often happens in this war).

Anyway, the liberation of the Kherson city has far-reaching consequences:

• Firstly, the russian army troops west of Kherson are now completely cut off any retreat pathes; these have only two options now: surrender or die.
• The russian terrorist army still controls the Antonivskyi bridge, but it is doubtful they can still use it for retreat due to the proximity of the Ukrainian artillery who can not keep it under complete fire control. Thus secondly, the situation of the russian terrorists north of Kherson is troublesome - their only retreat lines go near the city of Beryslav far away to the east... and that task has nothing in common with easiness.
• Thirdly, the russian army inside city of Beryslav itself has to face huge problems now. As the Ukrainian army needs not assault a highly fortified city of Kherson, their focus now will be fully directed towards the last remaining crossing across the Dnipro river.
• And finally, the foreseeable liberation of Beryslav (which is not an easy task yet feasible) will become a spear-deep pincer strike into the entire russian army logistics on the left bank of the Dnipro river. Yes, I am not mistaken: to the left bank too. The thing is: the distance from the village of Kozatske near Beryslav ot the city of Armiansk in Crimea is as much as 68 kilometers. What it effectively means is that liberation of this small settlement alone allows the Ukrainian Army to take the entire left bank between Kherson and Crimea under a fire control with its 155mm artillery; even more so with the help of HIMARS.

Conclusion

Thus far, what we can conclude about this whole story is these few key points:

• The Ukrainian Army have liberated the city of Kherson as confirmed by many.
• It was nothing like "good will" of the russian terrorists, but rather a hard work and dedication of the Ukrainian Army Heroes who fighted through this whole situation with brevity and professionalism; making this great victory possible.
• There is still a lot to happen in order to liberate the entire right bank of the Dnipro river; the 40'000 heads of russian terrorist army contingent is not at all easy to evacuate, and even harder to defeat. Thus, the full liberation will take at least a few more weeks.
• This victory (once fully secured) allows the Ukrainian Army to redirect a huge load of the army personnel and equipment to other fronts; so we can expect more offensive campaigns during the winter months.
• By the magnitude of far-reaching consequences the whole offensive campaign of the Ukrainian Army in Kherson Oblast during the last 3 month can be compared to the Run for Tunis - a famous campaign of the Allies in World War two which allowed to fully liberate the North African coast off the Axis invaders. A similarity is in the liberation of a huge water-locked territory through tough warfare, which allows to redirect the firepower to other fronts.

Trust the Ukrainian Army! Slava Ukraini!