Lex Weekly Briefing Scotland 7th March 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to the second Lex Weekly Briefing Scotland. Here, we run down the events of last week, and what to look out for this week in the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon as the new First Minister of Scotland.

What happened last week?

Last week saw the candidates face off in four members’ hustings in Glenrothes, Inverness, and Dumfries, as well as one online event. Having initially banned the media from the hustings, the party was forced into a U-turn following a backlash from journalists and the public. A timely reminder that members are not only electing a party leader, but also the next First Minister of Scotland.

Unsurprisingly, the issue of independence has dominated thus far, with the leadership hopefuls outlining their plans to achieve independence in the context of the UK Government's refusal to grant a second referendum. Humza Yousaf MSP, the frontrunner, has adopted a gradualist approach to independence, arguing that under his leadership support for secession will grow over time. Both Kate Forbes MSP and Ash Regan MSP have argued that a majority of seats in a General Election would constitute a mandate for a referendum, although they have been unable to spell out how they will bring the UK Government to the negotiating table.

The hustings also saw the candidates set out their position on a range of domestic policy questions, and it has been noted they largely deviate from the approach of their soon-to-be predecessor. All three candidates intimated they would pause the controversial Deposit Return Scheme and Kate Forbes, the Economy Secretary, said she would be happy to see Scotland re-enter international education league tables. Social issues have rarely been far away during the contest, and the last week has been no different as candidates were quizzed on issues ranging from gender reforms to gay marriage to buffer zones outside healthcare settings.

Elsewhere, Deputy First Minister John Swinney MSP resigned from government, signalling that the veteran with 16 years’ experience in government will not be a member of any incoming leader’s cabinet.?

What do I need to know about this week?

This week sees the first televised debate of the leadership contest, with Kate Forbes, Humza Yousaf, and Ash Regan participating in an STV debate at 9pm this evening. The event will take place at the broadcasters Glasgow studio and will be moderated by Political Editor Colin Mackay.

The difference between a husting and a televised debate is stark, and will bring increased pressure. The candidates will be faced by Mackay, who will ensure full scrutiny, and with no room full of dedicated activists applauding them, the candidates’ campaigns have the potential to fall apart under the scrutiny these debates bring.

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When are the leadership debates taking place?

There is a jam-packed schedule of hustings and televised debates for the leadership contenders. Aside from tonight’s first televised debate on STV, there will be a Channel 4 debate on Thursday, and three further televised debates next week.

The full list of televised debates is as follows;

March 7 - STV, 9pm?

March 9 - Channel 4, 7pm

March 13?-?Sky News, 8pm

March 14 -?BBC, 8pm

March 17 - The Inverness Courier

A total of nine members hustings will take place, with four last week, and a further five this week. The two week ballot for members to vote will open next Monday, the day after the final husting.

What does the data tell us so far?

The first poll of party members was released on Friday, and offers initial insight into how this contest is likely to play out. Savanta interviewed 515 SNP members online between 23 Feb – 1 March, and found that Humza Yousaf has a narrow lead over Kate Forbes, but the poll found the majority of members remain undecided over which candidate they will back.

The poll found 32% of SNP members were currently undecided, while 31% supported Yousaf, 25% supporting Forbes, and 11% preferring Ash Regan. When undecided voters were removed, Yousaf holds the lead on 46%, with Forbes on 37%, and Regan on 17%.

This means that the race is too close to call at this stage, and the next few weeks will be crucial as the candidates continue to lay out their message to voters. With such a high percentage of undecided voters, all can change in the coming weeks and debate performance could prove to be the deciding factor.

Yousaf has a commanding lead with younger members, holding 72% support among 18-34 year olds, compared to 20% for Forbes, and 7% for Regan. However, for both the 55-65, and 65+ demographics, Forbes holds a slight lead.

It’s worth bearing in mind that the data underpinning the poll was weighted to be representative of the SNP membership as a whole. For context, the SNP membership has a mean age of 49, and 40% of party members are over 60 years old, as a recent House of Commons briefing shows. This has led to speculation that Forbes’ socially conservative leanings may not be as damaging to her chances as initially thought, although at this stage this is purely speculative.

Although she finds herself behind Yousaf, Forbes will be buoyed by the fact that she is within touching distance. The next SNP Leader will be elected using the Single Transferable Vote which means second transfers could prove to be crucial. Should Humza Yousaf fail to win 50% outright in the first round, Regan to Forbes transfers could see the Economy Secretary over the line by the slightest of margins. It really is everything to play for.

What does this all mean??

This is the first leadership election the SNP has held in almost two decades, and it is already abundantly clear that there are many different visions for the future direction of the party.

This week will be an opportunity for the contenders to set out their policy agendas and demonstrate what their offer to voters is. Key themes to dominate these proceedings will undoubtedly be Scottish independence, and the mechanisms by which each candidate proposes this is achieved, gender reform legislation, the economy, and Scotland’s public services.

With Regan already being discounted by many, this week is an opportunity for Forbes and Yousaf to firmly establish themselves as the front runner. Both candidates will naturally be focused on winning over the membership which will place them into power, but party strategists will also be keeping a close eye on how they poll with the general public. Early indications suggest that Yousaf is more popular with members than voters and this is something Kate Forbes will look to capitalise on in the coming week.

Be sure to follow Lexington for weekly updates as the contest develops.

Get in touch

Lexington has a dedicated team of experts able to advise you on the Scottish political landscape, how to navigate policy challenges, and how to strategically engage with the incoming Scottish Government. To find out more about how we can support you - or if you have any questions - ?please do get in touch by emailing [email protected]