Lex Weekly Briefing Scotland 28th February 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to the first Lex Weekly Briefing Scotland. Here, we’ll be producing a briefing each week helping you stay on top of all developments in the SNP leadership election, ahead of the announcement of Scotland’s new First Minister on Monday 27th March.

DRIVING THE WEEK

What happened last week?

Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation came as a great shock to many across Scotland as well as in her own party. Her tenure as First Minister and contribution to the independence campaign will be analysed heavily, but for now, all eyes turn to who will succeed the leader who was recognised by supporters and opponents alike as one of the most competent and skilled politicians in a generation.

Some of the biggest names in the party were quick to rule themselves out of the top job. Former Leader and Current Deputy FM, John Swinney MSP, Deputy Leader Keith Brown MSP, new-ish Westminster Leader Stephen Flynn MP, Joanna Cherry MP, Neil Gray MSP, and the young but highly regarded Màiri McAllan MSP.

Surprising for many was the decision by Angus Robertson MSP, former Westminster Leader, now Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture not to throw his hat in the ring. Robertson cited the recent birth of his son as the major factor in his decision not to run, not a concern shared by Kate Forbes MSP who – if she were to be successful – would be returning to work following maternity leave into the biggest job in the country.

You can read Lexington’s articles in PubAffairs on what Nicola Sturgeon's resignation might mean for the SNP, Scottish and UK politics here, as well as our analysis piece posted on the day of her resignation.

What do I need to know about this week?

This week all eyes will be on the three candidates selected for the election, after nominations closed on Friday 24th - ?after what had been one of the longest weeks in Scottish politics for quite some time.

Candidates hoping to stand in the election were required to collect 100 nominations from at least 20 local branches. All three candidates who declared an interest to stand met this relatively low threshold. SNP members will now decide the winner through a single transferrable vote system, with voting beginning on 13th March and closing on 27th March. The winner and new First Minister will be declared later that day.

The election is being carried out using the single transferable vote system, whereby voters are asked to rank all three candidates in order of preference. They can choose to select only one or two candidates if they wish. The first placed candidate will need at least 50% plus one of the votes to win.

Who is running?

Three candidates will be vying for the leadership of the Party and to become the next First Minister, so allow us to break down the runners and riders.

Cabinet Minister for Finance and the Economy, Kate Forbes MSP, seen as a ‘rising star’ of the party, was widely regarded as a potential successor to Sturgeon. Tipped as a leadership contender for some time, as those holding the purse strings often are, Forbes was on maternity leave at the time the contest was called, and has returned early to fight the contest. First elected in 2016, she became the first woman in Scotland’s history to deliver a budget, and did so at the age of just 29.

Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care, Humza Yousaf MSP was also a close ally of Ms Sturgeon. Brought into government relatively shortly after his election, he took up the post of Minister for Europe and International Development in 2012. After the 2016 election, he was moved into the Transport and the Islands portfolio, before being promoted to Cabinet Secretary for Justice in 2018. Since the 2021 election, he has been serving as Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care, overseeing NHS Scotland’s recovery from the pandemic.

Ash Regan MSP served as Minister for Community Safety from 2018 until December last year, when she resigned from government to enable her to vote against the Gender Recognition Reform Bill.

What does the data tell us so far?

Ms Forbes is currently the favourite with the Scottish electorate despite a torrid first week of her leadership campaign, where she said she would not have voted for same-sex marriage at a Scottish Parliament vote.

A Panelbase poll commissioned by The Sunday Times revealed that Ms Forbes was leading the way among voters, with 23% preferring her to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, with Humza Yousaf preferred by 15%. Ash Regan was the first choice of only 7%.

When looking at parliamentarians, Yousaf has the most backers by far, with of 33 of the SNP’s 106 parliamentarians (109 minus the three contenders), compared to Forbes’ 9, and Regan’s solitary backer in Joanna Cherry MP.

When looking at The National, the paper most closely associated with support for the SNP , coverage about Humza Yousaf attracted the most positive support amongst the readership (111 engagements per article, +109% more than engagement with articles about Kate Forbes, Newswhip). ?This merely provides an early snapshot of members’ attitudes towards the respective candidates, but this data does feed into the consensus that Yousaf is the marginal frontrunner in the race to become the next First Minister.

What does this all mean??

Debates around the role of personal religious views and their compatibility with public political life dominated the headlines last week, and are likely to be a major theme of the campaign as Forbes’ personal views conflict with those of much of her party membership on social issues.

The leadership election has shown so far that candidates are not afraid to express their disapproval at the legislative agenda as it was being advanced by Sturgeon. The Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) bill, and Deposit Return Scheme are just two issues that the leadership contenders have been comfortable stating their opposition to, posing questions as each set out their policy agendas in the coming weeks.

There is a long campaign still to be fought. Be sure to follow Lexington for weekly updates as the contest develops.

Get in touch

Lexington has a dedicated team of experts able to advise you on the Scottish political landscape, how to navigate policy challenges, and how to strategically engage with the incoming Scottish Government. To find out more about how we can support you - or if you have any questions - ?please do get in touch by emailing [email protected]