Lex Weekly Briefing Scotland 22nd March 2023

Good morning, and welcome to the Lex Weekly Briefing Scotland in the final week of the SNP leadership election. Here, we run down the events of last week, and what to look out for this week as we find out who is to become the successor to Nicola Sturgeon and the new First Minister of Scotland.

In case you missed it, Lexington released a special report on the election and everything you need to know about what has led us here, what is to come next, and what this will a mean for business, society and the future of the Scottish Government. Read it here.

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What happened last week?

Well, where to start?

Last week the divisions and change in direction of the SNP without Nicola Sturgeon at the helm extended beyond the leadership contenders and into the structure of the party. The week started with debates around membership numbers and ended in three high profile resignations.

Leadership hopefuls Ash Regan MSP and Kate Forbes MSP made demands for the release of information on how many members were in the party, and thus eligible to vote in the election. While initially refusing to provide this number, on Thursday the story broke that the party’s membership had fallen to 72,000, down from the 104,000 it had two years ago, meaning a loss of almost a third in this time.

The SNP's Head of Media at Holyrood, Murray Foote, tendered his resignation on Friday, stating that there were "serious issues" with statements he had issued in "good faith" on behalf of the party.

Party Chief Executive Peter Murrell (and husband of Nicola Sturgeon) also handed in his resignation after taking responsibility for misleading the media about party membership numbers. Murrell was responsible for the day-to-day running of the party, and had served as Chief Executive since 1999.

Elsewhere, Nicola Sturgeon’s Strategic Policy and Political Adviser Elizabeth Lloyd also announced that she will be stepping down when her boss does.

In the space of just over a month the SNP have now lost a leader, a deputy leader (Swinney), a chief executive (Murrell), a chief spin doctor (Foote), and a chief advisor (Lloyd). One thing is certain, when the new leader takes their position - regardless of who it is - the SNP will be a fundamentally changed party.

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What do I need to know about this week?

This time next week we will know who the new First Minister of Scotland is, and they’ll be setting out their policy agenda.

It’s likely that most decided voters have already cast their ballot, but the candidates will be scrambling this week to win over the votes of the sizeable amount of undecided voters. There are no more hustings or debates with all three contenders so this week will see each individual use this opportunity to vie for those last minute votes.

This week eyes will begin to turn to what the first few weeks will look like for the new First Minister. Health will no doubt be one of their top priorities. Our Scottish health experts Keith Small and Brodie Denholm have produced a health special briefing which analyses the health commitments of the leadership candidates, and summarises the healthcare challenges they will inherit. You can read that here.

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What does the data tell us so far?

Analysis from the brilliant John Curtis at What Scotland Thinks has collated opinion polling and found that the four polls of the Scottish public which have asked voters directly which candidate they would prefer as the next SNP leader. The average of these polls have Kate Forbes as the preferred candidate on 30%, Humza Yousaf MSP on 20%, and Ash Regan at 10%. As has been reported throughout the campaign, that of course means that the most popular response was that voters did not know who would make the best leader.

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What does this all mean?

Murrell’s departure is a hugely significant one, as his tenure oversaw the rise of the party to the Scottish political giant it is today. As is hinted at with the other departures, whoever enters Bute House (well, the temporary residence as Bute House is currently undergoing repairs) will bring in a swathe of new faces to the party structure, thus cementing their stamp on the fabric of the party for years to come.

As discussed in last week’s briefing, the STV voting system could be the key in deciding this election.

Based on the polling data, two things are extremely likely;

1 - It is unlikely that any candidate will clear the 50% threshold of first preference ballots

2 - Ash Regan will come third

This means that the second preference votes of Regan could be crucial to either Yousaf or Forbes chances of winning. The question is then, who is most popular with Regan supporters?

Only one poll looked at second preferences of voters, Survation. Their poll found that among Regan’s supporters, Kate Forbes held 43% of the second preference votes, compared to 30% who preferred Yousaf. We’ll add the fairly big caveat here that this was from a sample size of just 50.

This presents the possibility that Yousaf could prove most popular in the first round ballot, but due to Forbes greater popularity among Regan supporters, this could carry her above the threshold and win the contest. This would of course deliver an outcome where the winner actually came second in the first preference ballot. Proportional voting systems, eh? Got to love them.

Get in touch

Lexington has a dedicated team of experts able to advise you on the Scottish political landscape, how to navigate policy challenges, and how to strategically engage with the incoming Scottish Government. To find out more about how we can support you - or if you have any questions -?please do get in touch by emailing [email protected]