As we approach the home straight to the big day, here over at Levercliff, we have been making some observations about what’s been happening within the grocery multiples so far and here is what we have noticed…
1. Stepping into Christmas… cautiously!
- At the start of the festive season Nielsen reported Christmas tree sales were down by a 1/3rd YoY * indicating that there has been a slower start to Christmas spending. Shoppers are likely to be more cautious with their festive spending this year, sticking to their regular shopping lists until they have the confidence to spend on Christmas food and drink.
- A focus on higher volume deals (eg Buy 6 Save 20%) particularly on Wine, can be seen across the trade, encouraging shoppers to trade up, indicating a higher expectation of larger festive gatherings this year. Retailers will also be lapping a strong start to Christmas last year within BWS, with the FIFA World Cup 2022 which ran between 21st Nov and 18th Dec and so pushing more value into the category through increased volume deals will help retailers to annualise category sales.
- A sea of loyalty card promotions can be seen across the trade. Whether this be Sainsburys Nectar, Tesco Clubcard, COOP Member Prices or Morrisons More Card, visibility is high as you shop online and instore. Retailers are fighting for shopper loyalty in a bid to win Christmas- but who will be crowned the winner of Christmas 2023?
4. Promotions Promotions Promotions!
- Nielsen reports that 92% of shoppers** aren’t planning on spending any more than last year on the holiday season, highlighting how tight the purse strings are for most. Promotional participation has increased YoY as retailers and brands look to help shopper spending. We can see this in some of our accessible category data across ambient, chilled and Frozen. % sales on deal for 4 w/e 02.12.23 show Ambient Morning Goods +1.6%pts, Frozen Meat Alternatives +3.9%pts and Chilled Meat Alternatives +10.6%pts.
5. The crown for best quality
- Quality is key at Christmas, we all like to feel like we are treating ourselves, family and friends with our food and drink choices that we serve up on the big day. Retailers have clocked on to this, weather this be Asda taking on M&S with their ’M&S Taste Match’ claims, Lidl shouting about their Good House Keeping award products or Waitrose using BBC Good Food Food Christmas Taste Winner accolade to push quality credentials, the competition is on to encourage shoppers to buy into their products!
6. All hail the pigs in blankets
- The ‘pig in blanket’ is swamping fixtures within fresh and frozen, with different formats, flavours and price points across both meat and meat alternative categories. This classic side has been ‘Loaded Up’ up in Sainsburys within its ‘Filthy Pigs in Blankets’ SKU which is topped with Cheese & Diced Chorizo! And it can been seen as a flavour profile by the masses within Crisps and Snacks with lots of off shelf feature particularly in M&S.
*Source: Nielsen Christmas Tracker w/e 11.11.23
** Source: NIQ Mid Year Consumer Outlook Survey 2023
