Levelling Up - but not as we thought

So now we know. After months of debate and discussion, Michael Gove and Neil O’Brien this week set out what Levelling Up means at the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester. Speaking across multiple fringes and the main stage, they outlined the four key “buckets” of Levelling Up:?

Devolution and empowering communities

Further bespoke devolution deals, including County Deals and possibly unitary reorganisation. O’Brien also highlighted a desire to empower communities, describing this as central to a Conservative approach.?

Growing the private sector?

Attracting inward investment and new businesses to parts of the country which have historically been overlooked. R&D was referenced as a big area of focus, with the Chancellor’s super-deduction tax break also mentioned.??

Spreading opportunity and skills?

Developing a high wage economy by investing in skills, apprenticeships and T-Levels, as well as improving existing local transport links such as trams and buses (more information on this likely at the Budget).

Restoring local pride

Proactive masterplanning of town and city centres to increase beauty, boost footfall and attract investment as part of the post-COVID recovery.?

?Sounds simple. However, to truly understand the Levelling Up agenda we need to consider other indications from the past week. As conference opened on Sunday, reports swirled in the media that the Prime Minister and Chancellor had agreed a pact committing the government to financial restraint in short to medium term. This, it was claimed, would allow the necessary financial head room for future tax cuts and spending pledges ahead of the next General Election, rumoured to be pencilled in for 2023.??

This was swiftly followed by the Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps, all but confirming that the eastern leg of HS2 - connecting Birmingham and Leeds - will not be built. This blow may well be softened by the acceleration of the Northern Powerhouse Rail project, aimed at boosting regional interconnectivity and favoured by a number of Red Wall Tory MPs. In reality, this is a victory for the Chancellor (who himself represents a North Yorkshire constituency) and further proof that his pitch for financial prudence has won the day.

Which brings us back to the four buckets outlined above. I had long thought Levelling Up would come to be defined through large scale (and expensive) public infrastructure projects. The Prime Minister’s passion for infrastructure - inspired by Athenian leaders such as Pericles - is well known. Crossrail, Boris Island airport and even the touted Celtic Crossing are all testament to Boris’s love of big projects. Green-lighting new infrastructure would undoubtedly show the government putting its money where its mouth is, but this was always going to be difficult to square against a public balance sheet ravaged by COVID-19.

And so the Levelling Up project will instead focus on government empowering communities, stakeholders and local leaders to transform their own area. Sound familiar? Cast your mind back to the late noughties and you may recall David Cameron launching his ‘Big Society’ policy, which aimed to devolve power from central government to local communities and encourage people to take an active role in civic life.?

The policy struggled with a lack of definition but ultimately failed to connect due to the perception that it was a smoke screen for austerity cuts. Clearly there is a lesson here for the Prime Minister. The Autumn Budget is only weeks away and this is when we will learn how much financial backing the Treasury is willing to commit to Levelling Up.

What is interesting to note, however, is that whilst the media and Westminster scratches its head and debates Levelling Up, Brand Boris remains strong. At conference I watched focus group sessions with voters from both Blyth Valley and Esher & Walton. In the former, support for Boris was unanimous. In the latter, there were dissenting voices but Boris just about retained support when juxtaposed with Sir Keir Starmer. And then of course there is the reception Boris got from the party faithful in Manchester. Sheer and utter adoration.?

?To retain this support and remain in Number 10, the Prime Minister must continue to reward the new voters who backed him in 2019 whilst keeping the traditional Tory heartland happy. The rumoured axing of the zonal planning reforms and possible scrapping of the 300,000 homes a year manifesto commitment will please the Home Counties - even more so if the distribution of housing targets is refocussed towards the North of England.

All of this will be no easy feat. But then Boris is no normal politician. I for one won’t be betting against him.