Level 5 AV's are just around the corner. Really?!

I'm going to start my post with an assertion. Level 5 Automated Driving Systems as described in J3016 (SAE's definitive reference on automated driving systems for vehicles) will not be on Australian roads any time soon despite what we read in media releases and online.

To explain how I got there I'll first consider recent media coverage of Audi's new A8 with level 3 automation - this will get some J3016 basics on the table. By the way, Futune.com coverage of the Audi A8 has a neat video, as does the Audi Germany YouTube Channel.

So, starting with the Audi - not willing to 'just trust' the marketing blurb, I reread J3016 cover to cover. Then I returned to the information available on the new Audi A8.

It will accelerate, steer, brake, and start from a dead stop without driver interaction.

Audi state their 'Traffic Jam Pilot' works in motorway style scenarios with a median barrier at a speed below 60 km/h. Indeed, it seems like Audi's Pilot decides where it can do its magic - announcing “Piloted Driving available” (at least in the prototypes demo'ed in China). What Audi claim their Traffic Jam Pilot can do does indeed measure up as level 3 - conditional driving automation. The limitations are what J3016 call the Operational Design Domain (ODD) - the conditions under which Audi's Pilot is designed to work. The accelerating, braking, steering, stopping and starting are the Dynamic Driving Task (DDT).

So … Audi's claim lines up with J3016 level 3 (anyone disagree?!).

[SAE level 5] permits engagement of the Automated Driving System under all driver-manageable on-road conditions

Now let us consider an announcement by Daimler and Bosch. They aim to have level 4 and 5 Automated Driving Systems in 2020 (ish). Interestingly, this announcement describes SAE level 4 and 5 as "fully automated" and "driverless" respectively, in an urban environment. It would need a very generous interpretation of the SAE source to say this description aligns with the intent of J3016.

As I understand J3016, the key difference between levels 4 and 5 is where the Automated Driving System (ADS) can operate - that is, perform the DDT. Level 4 still has a specific ODD. A good example right now would be the easymile EZ10 driverless shuttle. I'm sure the Daimler-Bosch goal is more ambitious - open road, higher speeds - but its still SAE level 4. The EZ10 highlights other point - a level 4 vehicle can be driverless as long as it operates as intended, within its ODD.

SAE level 5 opens the ODD up to "all driver-manageable on-road conditions". Now I 'tip my hat' to the authors of J3016. They acknowledge that there are some conditions that should not be considered driver-manageable - flooded roads is an example. Living in Queensland - a state of Australia that gets affected by tropical cyclones every storm season - this is a regular event that has on occasion taken lives. Encountering something like this, a level 5 vehicle would "achieve a minimal risk condition" – it would pull over!

I moved on from the description of level 5 in the Daimler-Bosch media release and started to consider just what "all driver-manageable on-road conditions" means. From an insurance perspective, in Australia, a driver-manageable (and insurable) condition includes driving on a beach! Rather than go there, how about we consider dirt roads? Unsealed, gravel … whatever you want to call it.

Let me bore you with some figures. Australia has at least 880,000 kms of public roadway (thank you BITRE Yearbook 2016). Extrapolating from Trading Economics figures I concluded about 53% of that roadway is unsealed - some 470,000 kms (better figures anyone?). I acknowledge the traffic on unsealed roads is a lot lower than on sealed roads. Still, most Australians would consider most (all?!) of those roads driver-manageable. Not counting the four wheel drive tracks in the more remote (and amazingly beautiful) parts of Australia, there is still A LOT of kilometres of unsealed roadway that - by definition - the motoring public would expect a level 5 vehicle to handle.

I've driven on just a small sample of the unsealed roadways Australia has to offer. I imagine an ADS that can handle the ruts, bulldust and corrugations (or is it washboarding in your part of the world?) on a good number of them is a long way off. Lay aside the technical challenge for the moment. Is the investment worth it for auto manufacturers given the much lower traffic volume on those roads?

An ADS that can handle (only) sealed roadways in Australia is still at SAE level 4. That's my view, at the moment, based on what I know. 

Allow me another opinion. Audi's approach of explicitly declaring where its ADS will (and won't) work seems eminently sensible. When I'm traveling in my 2021 model Audi Q7 in rural Queensland and its about to leave the bitumen, the car is going to demand I stop taking in the scenery and take control by announcing "Its your turn to drive mate!" - obviously I've gone for the Hugh Jackman voiced audio alert option.

So, back to my opening statement, level 5 … SAE level 5 … that works under all driver-manageable on-road conditions … will not be on Australian roads any time soon.

So, what? SAE level 4 ADS can have a significant positive impact in cities and urban areas ... if their introduction is well managed (the subject of another post?).

My closing thought is simple - and forgive me for playing with William Gibson's words: the future is nearly here, it just won't be evenly distributed.