Letter From Shanghai No 902 - High Expectations

This morning we had the privately sourced Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 48.1 (previous 46.0, expected 48.0). Today’s number was the fourth contraction in factory activity since the start of the year, and we can blame the usual suspects of Covid, supply issues, the property slump, declining export orders etc. However, there is good news.

Shaky hand-held video shows traffic jams honking loudly at midnight in Shanghai as Shanghai drivers took the earliest opportunity last night to climb into their cars and drive around the city to celebrate the relaxation of lockdown. While the usual nose to tail traffic snarl has not returned for this morning’s rush hour, I will describe traffic flow as brisk, whereas only yesterday, it was non-existent. Elsewhere my social media shows small picnics and parties of celebration, but this morning, of course, we face the reality of post-lockdown. As I write, I’m nagged by the feeling the clock is ticking, and my focus is on where can I get my next nucleic acid test and does that facility have a queue?

My phone tells the story. The last negative test I had was 45 hours ago, I should retest before that gets to 72 hours, or my access to shops, malls, public buildings and places of any kind will become restricted. At worst, I can imagine I could be denied access to my own compound. So, post-lockdown has its own arithmetic. I should take a test in the next 27 hours to avoid Covid exclusion. However, it takes 10-12 hours for my test results to appear on my phone, therefore, taking a cautious view, I need to take a test in the next 15 hours to retain continuity.

So, this is the new treadmill, test, retest and test again every 50-60 hours. Assuming the population of Shanghai tests every 3 days, that means some 8 million will test today.

However, my Didi app is once again offering me cars for travel across Shanghai. In-venue restaurant dining probably won’t restart for some time, and at the moment, my restaurant delivery app is not offering any food delivery options, but I have high expectations for later in the day.

Have a good day,

John