Letter From Shanghai No 1052 - Maybe Not, but I Hope So

In the absence of any economic data from China today, we have to look elsewhere.

At 9am this morning, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released “China’s Position on the Political Solution to the Ukraine Crisis”. One of the more fascinating things about China is that important speeches or policy announcements are published immediately on the internet. There is no need to read an interpretation from the news services when, with the minimum of effort, you can read the original. In this case, the document is quite short, containing just twelve paragraphs, the first sentence of each outlining its purpose: Respect the sovereignty of all countries, abandon the Cold War mentality, cease-fire and stop fighting, start peace talks, solve the humanitarian crisis, protection of civilians and prisoners of war, maintain the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce strategic risk, guarantee the export of grain, stop unilateral sanctions, ensure the stability of the industrial and supply chains and promote post-war reconstruction. It is not for me to comment on the document, except to say each paragraph is clearly written and without the usual flourish.

There is no indication of how the document will be implemented, what the process is to start de-escalation, and what role the international community and China would play. But I guess that is what diplomacy is for, and for that matter, does either side want to offer the necessary compromises that would be necessary to find a solution??

Earlier this week, Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Wang Yi, China’s highest-ranking diplomat, was in Moscow. In his welcoming address, Putin said the following, “And of course, we are expecting the President of the People’s Republic of China in Russia – we have agreed on his visit earlier. We know he has a domestic political agenda to attend to, but we assume that once the issues on that agenda are dealt with (the National People’s Congress, which is planned by the relevant congress of Chinese deputies, where major personnel issues are to be resolved), we will proceed with our plans for personal meetings, which will give an additional impetus to our relations.”

Of course, it is not what diplomats say, it’s what they don’t say that is the focus, and during his visit, Wang Yi pointedly did not use the “no limits” phrase to describe the Russian Chinese relationship, thus opening up the room for disagreement. So, assuming the Twin Sessions will start on 5th March and last 5 to 10 days, then Putin expects President Xi to travel to Moscow sometime after that. President Xi would prefer peace stretching across Eurasia from Vladivostok to Calais; it would be good for business and supportive of the Chinese economy. But I would suggest Xi would only travel if there were a tangible deal on the table.

But is this the genesis of a credible multinational effort to halt the war? I don’t know, maybe not, but I hope so.

Have a good weekend,

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John