Let's Watch Some Golf!

Introduction

The best weekend of the year is here, with the Aintree Grand National meeting and The Masters.? The best in the world teeing it up in Augusta is always a great spectacle and whilst it looks like there could be some rain on Thursday, the rest of the tournament should be played in the sunshine and hopefully that will be a sign of things to come and we could do with some of that!

It gives us the first chance of the year to see the LIV golf players competing with the PGA and DP World tour guys and it looks an intriguing prospect.? Last year, the LIV guys were able to contend here with Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed all making the top five.

Course form is massively important here and many of the LIV players have plenty of that especially with last year’s winner Jon Rahm now a LIV player as well.? There was a lot of talk last year that plenty of money already in the bank, less frequent golf and 54 hole events would all count against the LIV players, but the course form outweighed that and whilst that may be a factor in other majors, I think that it is not as much of a factor here.

Players definitely get better with experience at Augusta, it is a course that rewards missing in the right areas, and you only learn that over time.? That being said, it is not stupid to back someone with no experience as you don’t know how they will take to the course until they try, but it is dangerous to presume that players that have played poorly here several times before will suddenly turn it around.

There are usually a few less well-known or unfancied players around the top of the leader board on a Sunday, so there is no need to stick only with the favourites, as an outsider can still give you a good run for your money.? Although far from an unknown name, Phil Mickelson was a massive price last year and rewarded backers with a top 5 finish.

Whether you are watching or betting, I wish you luck and my pointers and analysis is below.

Why Are You Watching?

If you are watching the Masters to see the best players in the world playing a brilliant golf course, then you will not be disappointed.? If betting is not your thing, then pick your favourite player and cheer him on and I am sure you will really enjoy the four days.

I love watching golf with a betting interest however so for me, I am looking for angles that are not accurately reflected in the betting market.? Please bear this in mind when reading on.? I am rarely looking at who is the most likely to win, I am looking for who would make me a profit if the tournament was played 50, 100 or 1000 times over and I bet on them every time.

I might think that player A has a 10% chance of winning, so if the event was played 100 times and he would win 10 of them.? I might think player B has a 1% chance of winning, so play this 100 times and he will win once.? However, if player A is 5-1 and player B is 200-1 in the betting, I will be supporting player B all day long.? If you like player A you will watch him win ten times more often than my guy, but if we each had ￡1 on our man in the 100 events, you will have ￡60 in your pocket at the end, and I will have ￡201!

Peaking At The Right Time

Most Masters winners will play above their normal level as you need to have a good week to win the Green Jacket.? It is therefore often worth noting players who have been progressing in terms of their form in recent weeks.

I analyse a lot of data in arriving at selections for golf and recent form is something I consider to be important.? Obviously a bad player playing his best is still unlikely to be a top player who is below par, but current form often allows me to find player who is starting at a bigger price than he should.? In terms of recent form (last five events) the following players who are playing at Augusta popped up as playing at least one shot per round above their longer-term level; Peter Malnati, Hidecki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Matthieu Pavon and Wyndham Clark.?

Malnati, Pavon and Clark have never played the course which may count against them, but Matsuyama is interesting having been in the top 20 his last four visits and one of those was a win.? Zalatoris has form here but whilst his last five starts are trending up, the last two were a missed cut and down the field finish which makes him less appealing than Hidecki.?

All these guys warrant a close look though and Phil Mickelson was on this list last season, I wish I had paid more attention to him!

The Right Profile

One thing that does not seem to be as critical here as elsewhere is driving accuracy. You do not have to be as good at Augusta as you need to be at most other places.? The place is beautifully manicured, and you can get away with being off line more often. Outside of that though, there is little in the data that suggests that Augusta requires a much different skill set to a normal PGA event.?

Players with good driving distance, good around the green skills and good putting are rewarded here marginally more than elsewhere but it is not a big factor.?

The putting data is a bit surprising as the greens are tricky and very fast, so you will not win if you do not putt well.? That said some players that putt really well elsewhere can still struggle here, so that probably makes the data look more “average”.? In general, the data would not suggest that placing emphasis on players who are said to have “an ideal game for Augusta” would be warranted.? It is often said, but the stats just do not back it up.

For what it is worth, their performance in the relevant categories would suggest that you could marginally mark up the chances of the amateur Christo Lamprecht, Nick Dunlap, Ryan Fox, Peter Malnati, Jake Knapp, Cam Smith, Ben An, Wyndham Clark, Min Woo Lee and Bryson DeChambeau.

Several of those would be offset by a lack of course knowledge or poor previous course form though! ?

Course Form

I consider two factors here.? Some players flat out just play well at Augusta and this is a group that really needs further consideration, but obviously, this list will also include all the top players in the world as they play well in most places, so it is also worth looking at who plays better here than they do elsewhere as they could pinpoint betting value at bigger prices.

The top performers here are Will Zalatoris, Sahith Theegala, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Tom Kim and Colin Morikawa with McIlroy, Koepka and Matsuyama only just missing this list.

Zalatoris, Theegala and Kim are small sample sizes having only played here twice, once and once respectively.? Rahm has four top 10s in his last five starts here though so is the most consistent player on this list.? Scheffler’s numbers are skewed by his big win in 2022 and Spieth either finishes top 5 or nowhere!

Age may be catching up with Woods and Mickelson, but the latter overcame that last year whilst Rose and Morikawa have been consistently thereabouts without winning.

In terms of those who have played better here than you would expect them to based on their stats elsewhere, there is a lot of crossover from the first list, but the following guys who are not named above are also worth a look, Nick Taylor, Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryan Fox, Fred Couples and Russell Henley.

Taylor only has one appearance to his name as does Fox.? Neither of them finished top 20 though they just played better than expected.? Couples missed the cut 4 times before playing better last year, but he is surely too old to contend here.? Olesen has not been invited the last four years so will have to go back a way to access his course knowledge but Henley who was tied 30th and tied 4th the last two years is interesting.

There are some underperformers as well. Past performance would suggest a lot of caution if you are considering supporting Kurt Kitayama, Erik Van Rooyen, Stewart Hagestad, Adrian Meronk or Jose Maria Olazabal and Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa and Ben An are all likely to be underpriced as they play worse here than they do elsewhere.

Top Contenders

I will go through the ten guys that I have as the 10 most likely winners to analyse their chances.

It would be hard to argue that Scottie Scheffler is not the best in the world at the moment.? He is a very short price to win, and he should be a very short price, just not that short!? If he does what he did in 2022 he will win this at a canter, but he failed to follow up last year and whilst he is the most likely winner there is nothing to suggest any value in his odds.? I gave him nearly a 15% chance of winning last year and his chance is similar this time, but he ought to be around 7-1 and he isn’t.

I have Xander Schauffele at number two, just edging Rory McIlroy with a bump up due to his current form.? He was actually not far off making my bet list and I could not put you off supporting him.? The same does not go for Rory though.? He is the third most likely to win, but he is around 12-1 and I think he should be around 16s.

Jon Rahm is next, and his chance is obvious, but again his price factors that in.? If Scheffler, McIlroy or Rahm wins, I will not be kicking myself as long term, you do not make money backing players at odds lower than their true chance of victory even if there is about a 30% chance that one of these three will be donning the green jacket on Sunday.

The next two, I was interested in as Hidecki Matsuyama is in good form and likes it here.? I think the bookies have him priced about right, but he certainly has a chance.?

Bryson DeChambeau is 6th and has missed the cut the last two years.? Everything suggests ignoring him, but I cannot get away from the fact that his game looks like it should be ideal for Augusta and that boosts his data to the extent that the bookies odds look to understate his chance.? It is a risky one for sure though.

Niemann, Fitzpatrick, Spieth and Aberg round out my top 10.? Niemann is in great form on the LIV Tour.? There is some value in his price, but not enough to tempt me in.? Fitzpatrick looks decent value though as the data suggests he should be a shorter price than he is.? Spieth is too short in the betting and Aberg is playing his first major and would be risky.? He is very talented though and I could not put you off him on value grounds.

My next 10 are Theegala, Fleetwood, Clark, Hovland, Henley, Si Woo Kim, Morikawa, Johnson, Finau and Koepka.? Of those, Theegala, Fleetwood, Henley and Kim all have value in their prices and are worth a look.

My Selections

My selections are based purely on value, and I bet on each player to win, finish in the top 5, finish in the top 10 and finish in the top 20.? Some players I bet are huge prices and, in their case, a top 20 finish will make me a profit and anything else is a bonus.? I typically bet to win about ￡300 if my player wins, with ￡75 for a top 5 finish, ￡40 for a top 10 and ￡20 for a top 20.? It means if I get the winner, I make a good profit, but having two or three somewhere close at the end of the event will still make me a profit.

I have five bets this week.

Best value for me this week comes at a very big price!? Denny McCarthy is yet to win a PGA Tour event, but he came close on Sunday when he birdied eight of the last nine holes to make a playoff.? He is a brilliant putter and a game suited to the course.? That said he has never played here before which is a risk, but that was all that stopped me from backing Theegala last year and he was 9th so a good result is still achievable on debut.

Adam Scott is playing some of the best golf that he has for a while and has loads of experience around here.? He is another who is way overpriced.? He has not been in the top 10 here for a few years, but he always seems to make the cut and it would be no surprise if he managed to put it together for four rounds and contend.

Bryson DeChambeau and Matt Fitzpatrick are about the same price at around 40-1 on Betfair and I think this overstates their chances.? I mentioned the risk with DeChambeau above, but I would not be surprised to see either have a good week and both look decent value.

My last bet is Russell Henley.? 4th last year, he has course form and current form.? He putts really well and there is plenty of value in his odds.

Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, Theegala, Aberg and Bhatia all came close to making the bet list and if you fancy one of them, then you will be getting some decent betting value as well.

Enjoy the action.