Let's Talk Loans - Vol. 79

Welcome back to Let's Talk Loans. If we have any University of Mississippi fans out there, I'm headed to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl tomorrow for Saturday's game to cap off a tremendous year of college football. So I'm releasing this a day early. Go Rebels! Our last Let's Talk Loans of 2023. You'll find in this newsletter some of my thoughts on lending, banking, credit and conversations of timely topics that come across our loan trading desk. I hope you enjoy the content and if you do, please like, subscribe or comment!

I want to give a few shout outs to several of the names that I follow. As I've experimented with content creation over the last several years, you quickly recognize talent when you see it. For those looking for who to follow or where to find them, I hope this newsletter gives you some ideas. Which leads to me to a question, who are your favorites? What topics? Please suggest others if you have them!

As I look for overall economic content, the two I follow most closely are Mark Zandi and Mohamed El-Erian . Both have had the chance to take a bit of a victory lap in their estimates for 2023. I was fortunate to meet Mark Zandi just prior to COVID. Our relationship with 穆迪分析 really blossomed as COVID landed on us and we switched to all things digital content. Mark was incredibly generous with his and his teams time and helped us start up the "In Conversation" webinar series between Raymond James and 穆迪分析 . We've covered mortgages , autos , unsecured, commercial real estate , the election of 2020 , economic outlook , and Moody's own "Inside Economics " podcast. I'm pleased to say we are recording another episode of that podcast today, check the feed for when it is published! One of the things I admire so much about Mark is his easy to understand, very conversational style. He's obviously brilliant but doesn't speak over you or down to you.

While I don't have the same personal rapport with Mohamed El-Erian (someone please send me his handlers contact info! I'd love to do a webinar with him), if you read these newsletters you frequently see my quotes of him. When you see him on CNBC, he starts on a topic usually by asking three questions or giving three thoughts. He reminds me of Zandi in how he takes a complex topic and breaks it down into more simple bite sizes. He's a regular "Top Voice" for LinkedIn , posts often on Twitter / X, and you can find him on most any of the major business news channels. I peaked in 2023 when I noticed he reposted one of my tweets (which was...about him).

Shifting over to the auto sector. Two names I follow closely are Melinda Zabritski from Experian and Michael Brisson from 穆迪分析 . Melinda is my go-to for her quarterly market auto update . Are banks beating credit unions in market share? Are all the new vehicles going to finance companies? Are terms extending? Are loan balances climbing? What about delinquencies and credit? Are payments at all time highs? She covers it perfectly. She has a blog posting on Experian's website and posts from time to time on LinkedIn. She's also a regular at many auto conferences where she presents on auto lending and credit. Give her quarterly update a listen.

You can find some of Michael's thoughts here on Moody's Inside Economics. Mike was also kind enough to join us as part of our "In Conversation" discussion on autos. He's got tremendous command of the data, has a real quant's heart and can spot trends that others do not always see. It's no surprise that he's been a presenter on CNBC and other news outlets.

Our desk got its start trading mortgages all the way back to 1991. It's a product that is our most traded, typically most commented on and generally a large portion of the balance sheet for many of our clients. We've been enormously fortunate to work with FNMA, FHLMC, the MBA, Moody's and others as we approach the world's largest market outside of US treasuries. I regularly follow Hamilton Fout , Michael Fratantoni , and Leonard Kiefer .

Len has incredible visuals on most of his LinkedIn posts . You can find his December 2023 economic outlook here . He's a must follow.

Michael Fratantoni is the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association . I've been fortunate to work with Mike now for roughly a decade as we are a member of the MBA and regular attendees of their conferences. Follow the MBA's "newsroom " link to see his frequent posts on mortgage volumes, FOMC meetings , economic reports and much more.

Hamilton Fout is a fellow student of the housing crash in 2008 and has authored several papers on the subject. His work on the impact of appraisals and credit can be found by following the links. Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group forecasts and news releases can be found here . I very much enjoyed hosting a few webinars with him during COVID and getting to meet him in person at Nashville where he was kind enough to volunteer his time to speak on our mortgage market roundtable.

Moving over to commercial real estate. I'm a regular follower of Barry Sternlicht, Victor Calanog PhD CRE FRICS , and Thomas LaSalvia PhD . I don't think Barry Sternlicht needs any introduction. From the last issue of LTL , his interview on CNBC was one of my most read posts of the year. His quote, "The regional banks are not in good shape. They all have commercial real estate loans. Only by the grace of God do some of these regional banks continue to walk." As it relates to CRE, his comments from back in June still resonate today.

I've enjoyed watching Victor Calanog PhD CRE FRICS shift this year from being an economist to now being on the buy side. Formerly with Moody's, he's shifted over to the dark side and is now at Manulife . He regularly posts on LinkedIn and has to be one of the best dressed economists covering the commercial real estate sector. He's been a regular speaker at our Raymond James conferences and has joined us on numerous webinars . He brings so much energy to the discussion, we're grateful for his regular contribution to the knowledge of our clients.

Thomas LaSalvia PhD has also been a steady hand throughout the hurricane that has been CRE this year . In my discussions with Tom, he levels out my sometimes more negative slant on credit. I see him as a glass half full economist that works to see the good and bad in the market.

Other shout outs I'd like to give on just general banter and frequent interaction. Owen LaFave (his cardboard signs are legendary), Nathan Stovall (my thanks for attending our conference and allowing me to speak on Street Talk ). Randy Woodward (for attempting to drag me into Twitter / X ), Danielle DiMartino Booth , Jack Farley (really enjoyed participating on Forward Guidance ), Sean Kelly-Rand , Dave Wald , HousingWire , Steve Wofford , Bronson Mallett , Ron Wilsie , CRE Analyst (with CRE in the box in 2024, these guys are a must follow), Cristian deRitis (for all the webinar content, presenting in Nashville and keeping Mark in check), Ben Eisen , Bryan Mena , Gina Heeb , Jake Mooney , Shaina Mishkin , Chuck Cowan , Rebecca Bacon (a Rising Star!), James Armstrong (for all the CRE knowledge you bring), J. Robby Holditch , Anna Bahney , Larry Hueth , David Fieldhouse, Ph.D. (unsung hero at Moody's), Amy Martin (another great auto loan source of information from S&P Global - thanks for coming to Nashville), Sara Rodriguez , Upgrade, Inc. , Renaud Laplanche (thank you for joining us in Nashville and showing us your innovational mind). The loan sales team at Raymond James as they have helped distribute my musings - Jason Farmer , Michael P. , Will Hudson , Derek Clenin, CPA (you're in my prayers my friend), Ben Fisher , Ben Prudhomme , Battle Beasley , Chris Hayes , CLAY HICKMAN , Quinton Stine .

If you have any other suggestions for those to follow, please share them in the comments.

Happy New Year! On to 2024!

M23-372260 #linkedinfinance