Let’s Talk About ‘Groupthink’

Last week the House of Commons Health and Social Care, and Science and Technology Committees published their report: “Coronavirus: lessons learned to date” (https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/7496/documents/78687/default/ ). Whilst many countries suffered badly because of COVID-19, the report noted that the UK did significantly worse in terms of COVID deaths in 2020, especially compared to countries in East Asia – this despite the fact that those countries were geographically much closer to the genesis of the virus.

The report acknowledged that many countries in Europe and North America, including the UK, made a serious error in concluding that trying to manage herd immunity by infection was the way to go in the absence of testing and a vaccine. There was also a view – subsequently proved incorrect – that the public would not accept lockdown for a significant period.

The conclusion from the report, that “the UK approach reflected a consensus between official scientific advisors indicat[ing] a degree of?groupthink?. . .present at the time which meant we were not as open to approaches being taken elsewhere as we should have been”, amounts to a catastrophic failure of decision-making which, in this case appears to have resulted in unnecessary deaths. But what exactly do we mean by?Groupthink?

Groupthink: What Exactly Is It and When Does it Happen?

Groupthink was formally conceptualised and defined back in the 1970’s by Irving Janis, a psychologist from Yale. Janis defined groupthink as “a desire to reach an unanimous decision [which] can override the motivation to reach a proper rational decision-making process".

A group is especially vulnerable to groupthink when:

1)????Group members are similar in background.

2)????The group is insulated from outside opinion.

3)????There are no clear rules for decision-making.

Groupthink: The Symptoms

There are numerous symptoms and manifestations of groupthink. Groups prone to this condition generally operate under?the illusion of invulnerability: this creates a sense of excessive optimism, which, in turn, encourages more extreme risk taking. Members also discount warnings and fail to reconsider their assumptions – something known as “collective rationalization”. Furthermore, group members have a misplaced?belief in their inherent morality.?They believe in the rightness of their cause and ignore the ethical/moral consequences of their decision. They also have a stereotypical (and negative) view of others outside of their own group – something which cushions them from the need to engage with conflicting views and opinions beyond their own circle.

There is also a dangerous group dynamic at work. Direct pressure can be brought to bear on those group members who try to put forth dissenting views. Members can come under pressure NOT to express arguments that run counter to the group’s views. This can also lead to?self-censorship,?where group members deliberately fail to express doubts and deviations from the perceived group consensus. The absence of alternative views can then lead to the group acting under the?illusion of unanimity?– the majority view and judgements are – mistakenly – assumed to be unanimous.

And last – but by no means least – self-appointed “mind guards” can operate within the group – members who protect the group - and the group leader - from information that is problematic, or contradictory to the group’s view and decisions – which could otherwise disrupt the group’s cohesiveness.

Mental Simulation: One Way To Overcome Groupthink

In our decision-making research, we successfully designed and tested a new mental simulation intervention to improve decision-making outcomes. The mental simulation - a twist on “let’s pretend” - asks groups to project forward and imagine the decision they are about to make (which is not yet ‘baked in’) has gone badly wrong. That assumption of failure opens up the decision-making black box, causing the group and its members to go back and more fully interrogate and challenge the decision and the information underpinning it. Imagine the potential difference in the decision had someone imagined a scenario where hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives.?

Taking this alternative perspective – effectively imagining the worst-case scenario - enables new information and thinking to emerge in the group. Applying this to the decision (this is critical of course!) allows the group to improve their decision-making. In short, groups who mentally simulated the failure of their decision ultimately showed better decision outcomes than those who did not.

The mental simulation has a further benefit. By asking group members to imagine failure then highlight all the possible reasons why, it allows for dissenting views and perspectives– in fact, it actually rewards these views, since expressing them may ultimately save the group and its members from falling flat on their face by making the wrong decision.?

Conclusions

Of course – hindsight is a wonderful thing. There is no doubting that these were hugely complex decisions - and who amongst us can honestly say they have not been impacted by groupthink. Nonetheless, on the face of it, a better approach to decision-making, such as implementing a simple mental simulation intervention as a form of challenge – could have influenced the outcomes.?

The former Chief Medical Officer for England, Professor Dame Sally Davies, told the inquiry:?

“Quite simply, we were in groupthink. Our infectious disease experts really did not believe that SARS, or another SARS, would get from Asia to us. It is a form of British exceptionalism.. . .We need to open up and get some more challenge into our thinking about what we are planning for [...] In thinking through what could happen, it would be well worth bringing in people from Asia and Africa to think about that as well, to broaden our experience and the voices in the room."

For my own part – and at the risk of sounding pessimistic - I have come to a perspective on decision-making that can best be summed up as: “plan for the worse – and hope for the best”.

Want to know more about our decision-making research and the mental simulation? Here's a link to an earlier post discussing our paper published this year – together with a lay version setting out the findings and application. https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/dr-dawn-h-n-23ba5331_ive-just-been-pretending-i-can-see-this-activity-6761231284539805696-p3Mx